Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 CMC is close with the mid week event but the trough looks to positive tilted to me to really round the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we can just get the RGEM outcome 50 miles SE that would be perfect for everyone. Not a huge storm but possibly 6”+ for some. It’s a matter of the S/W sharp enough to generate lift and on a good track as others pointed out. Would be nice to have a decent snow before this cold push. It'll have a '13-'14 feel if we can get a nice moderate 4-8" storm with prolonged cold to follow and perhaps some nickel and dime events to refresh the snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: this is ugly Dry slot while The best banding is well northwest do you think it’s correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good to hear you are on board. I doubt it with all the cold air around. Sure it could. If it’s too amped like the GGEM it rains for most of it NYC East. There’s no confluence/block forcing it east and the cold air around comes in behind the storm. We want the trough/orientation east of GGEM so it has to take the offshore track. That’s why I want the track 50 miles or so SE of that so we all have a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Dry slot while The best banding is well northwest do you think it’s correct? what's to stop further west trends? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Sure it could. If it’s too amped like the GGEM it rains for most of it NYC East. There’s no confluence/block forcing it east and the cold air around comes in behind the storm. We want the trough/orientation east of GGEM so it has to take the offshore track. That’s why I want the track 50 miles or so SE of that so we all have a nice event. The gfs/icon/euro all have what you want… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Sure it could. If it’s too amped like the GGEM it rains for most of it NYC East. There’s no confluence/block forcing it east and the cold air around comes in behind the storm. We want the trough/orientation east of GGEM so it has to take the offshore track. That’s why I want the track 50 miles or so SE of that so we all have a nice event. Those models are known to have an overamped bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Gefs improved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The gfs/icon/euro all have what you want… Sure they do-now. I’m not locking onto anything for another 24 hours. In a whatever can go wrong will winter which it’s been up until now, best to have that mindset. I hope they’re right as much as anyone but I can see how it turns into another fail. Nothing really stopping a hugger other than the trough orientation being favorable. It could definitely amp more since there’s no blocking out ahead of it this time. But sure if we can lock onto a GFS type solution it’ll be a very nice system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, jm1220 said: Sure they do-now. I’m not locking onto anything for another 24 hours. In a whatever can go wrong will winter which it’s been up until now, best to have that mindset. I hope they’re right as much as anyone but I can see how it turns into another fail. Nothing really stopping a hugger other than the trough orientation being favorable. It could definitely amp more since there’s no blocking out ahead of it this time. But sure if we can lock onto a GFS type solution it’ll be a very nice system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 UKMET continues to look good. Plenty cold with a solid 3 to 5 inch hit for most of the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Dry slot while The best banding is well northwest do you think it’s correct? Is it ever correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, winterwx21 said: UKMET continues to look good. Plenty cold with a solid 3 to 5 inch hit for most of the area. Should be a hint on what the euro will do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Blue Dream said: Is it ever correct? Forky and Bluewave think so 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, winterwx21 said: UKMET continues to look good. Plenty cold with a solid 3 to 5 inch hit for most of the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 CMC is always too amped. The euro/GFS/ukie/icon/ euro ai all show a solid 3-6" storm. I'll take my chances with them against the cmc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Forky and Bluewave think so It's trended slightly SE the last few runs, I am hoping it's overamped with the cold push coming but maybe I'm just wishcasting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Gefs members all look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 i have already given up on winters we use to have and enjoy.. due to climate change.. 1 1 1 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 should get a pretty broad precip shield given that we're in the left exit region 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 also, soundings for NNJ from the GFS would be more like 15:1 rather than 10:1 given very cold temps and lots of lift in the DGZ. although kinda early to talk about SLR, these kinds of Arctic waves often have pretty good profiles for higher ratios 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Banding/subsidence risk a bit secondary to timing of CAA on a west wind in my opinion. You feel better north of merritt, west of 287 on ratios 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro isn't the CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro is actually slightly east of 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: we could easily get mostly rain that is what I am wondering...yeah its ticking west but what if it keeps ticking west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 52 minutes ago, forkyfork said: what's to stop further west trends? You’re going with the two most amped bias models we have… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, winterwarlock said: that is what I am wondering...yeah its ticking west but what if it keeps ticking west It won’t….rgem and cmc are often very amped in the medium range 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is actually slightly east of 6z 1 to 3 with good ratios 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro further east and not as amped cmc is out to lunch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 But the euro is the one waffling around 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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