MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Navy 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The very definition of desperation is rolling out the NAVGEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:42 PM, RedSky said: The very definition of desperation is rolling out the NAVGEM Expand Watch out when it's phased 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:49 PM, MJO812 said: Watch out when it's phased Expand Yep, the NAVGEM rule is that when the Navy isn’t the farthest SE of all guidance, that’s a red flag the other guidance is too far SE. I wouldn’t ignore the Navy here. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 8:23 PM, George001 said: Yep, the NAVGEM rule is that when the Navy isn’t the farthest SE of all guidance, that’s a red flag the other guidance is too far SE. I wouldn’t ignore the Navy here. Expand It basically means it's too far SE even when it isn't compared to the other models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 8:23 PM, George001 said: Yep, the NAVGEM rule is that when the Navy isn’t the farthest SE of all guidance, that’s a red flag the other guidance is too far SE. I wouldn’t ignore the Navy here. Expand Are there AI models that get trained on multiple weather models to look for patterns, such as in the above examples ? U would think that looking at the systematic bias of Euro, GFS, CMC, etc, in relation to each other, u could get better predictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 8:54 PM, Blizzwalker said: Are there AI models that get trained on multiple weather models to look for patterns, such as in the above examples ? U would think that looking at the systematic bias of Euro, GFS, CMC, etc, in relation to each other, u could get better predictions. Expand This is very interesting to me - AI incorporating real model biases during certain types of events in specific locations and then correcting for them. I've read that precip amounts are not improved with AI at this point but that the location of the greatest pressure drop, aka where the storm will have the greatest impacts, is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 No answers...modeling variable but pretty sure of minor light snow event for our NYC subforum Sunday night-Monday. Light overrunning qpf of mostly under 0.3"... decent more than 10 to 1 snow ratios. Generally suggests to me a minor snow event that lasts a few days to a week in NYC (again presuming I'm not radically overestimating the chance of an inch of snow in CP from this cold transition back to what might be the coldest day of the season next Wednesday?). Lets presume we get an inch or 2 in CP. Try not to get bummed if it isnt refreshed for a while and looks dirty after two days. I'll have more to say on any Monday Inauguration Day snowfall, if it looks like a cant miss 1-2". For now, I find it difficult to believe we will miss a little snow..nickel and dime I know. Thread the needle so not a guarantee. I just think there is too much jet dynamics next Sunday-Monday. The jet is already very strong over our area now. Anything after 05z/20 is all snow or brief ice to snow and probably a fairly dry snow. Will check back tomorrow morning for sure. Thanks for keeping the faith. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 A very good article on what a cold and potentially snowy pattern is - and is not. Lots of chances coming up starting around 1/19 and going for a week or longer beyond that, but no guarantees of significant snow (just greater probabilities than usual). https://www.weathernj.com/another-snowy-pattern-detected/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Gfs 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 10:22 PM, MJO812 said: Expand Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 10:23 PM, EastonSN+ said: Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. Expand We've had so many 80s references around here lately I'm about to break out the J Geils album and the Pac Man Fever single. The 80s were great. Sorry, banter. But true. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 10:23 PM, EastonSN+ said: Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. Expand That 18z GFS solution would be great - nice moderate snowfall followed by cold weather and probably very minimal melting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 10:23 PM, EastonSN+ said: Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. Expand it's our rarest type of snowfall, though I'd rather say it's 4-6 not 4-8, 6+ snowfalls were very rare and very spotty late 80s, early 90s and again late 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 10:23 PM, EastonSN+ said: Now that's a good old-fashioned 1980s four to eight inch snowfall. Expand do you know 6+ inch snowfalls were so rare back then I heard there was talk of lowering winter storm warnings to 4" snow and school closings to 4" of snow too? That might happen one day.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 11:55 PM, LibertyBell said: do you know 6+ inch snowfalls were so rare back then I heard there was talk of lowering winter storm warnings to 4" snow and school closings to 4" of snow too? That might happen one day.... Expand I did not know that but that's interesting. What does a Euro AI show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/13/2025 at 11:57 PM, EastonSN+ said: I did not know that but that's interesting. What does a Euro AI show? Expand Not sure it goes out that far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/13/2025 at 11:55 PM, LibertyBell said: do you know 6+ inch snowfalls were so rare back then I heard there was talk of lowering winter storm warnings to 4" snow and school closings to 4" of snow too? That might happen one day.... Expand Don’t be so dramatic. We got 24” on LI like two years ago. And multiple blizzards since 2010 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 12:51 AM, WestBabylonWeather said: Don’t be so dramatic. We got 24” on LI like two years ago. And multiple blizzards since 2010 Expand no we're talking about the period from the mid 80s to the early 90s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/13/2025 at 11:57 PM, EastonSN+ said: I did not know that but that's interesting. What does a Euro AI show? Expand 18z Euro AI passes the storm south of most of MD. VA and eastern shore of DE and MD are the winners. But almost brings up a big storm on the 24th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 1:43 AM, mitchnick said: 18z Euro AI passes the storm south of most of MD. VA and eastern shore of DE and MD are the winners. But almost brings up a big storm on the 24th. Expand Bad trends on the AI with the first wave. Cold dry is very a real threat at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 1:43 AM, mitchnick said: 18z Euro AI passes the storm south of most of MD. VA and eastern shore of DE and MD are the winners. But almost brings up a big storm on the 24th. Expand Would be the third storm for the Delmarva already. This is very reminiscent of a few years ago where they cleaned up as well. Maybe 19/20 was the winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 2:15 AM, Allsnow said: Bad trends on the AI with the first wave. Cold dry is very a real threat at this point Expand And the cold/dry would be even worse this time with direct Arctic air coming down and the lakes finally freezing up. Still hopeful one of these waves can produce a moderate event but fully aware this can be yet another fail and trend back to suppressed crap. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Light snowfall on icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 3:43 AM, MJO812 said: Light snowfall on icon Expand I believe that's overdone with just flurries. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011318&fh=150 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 4:03 AM, mitchnick said: I believe that's overdone with just flurries. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011318&fh=150 Expand Weatherbell has 1-3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Gfs has nothing now 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Cmc is gonna be better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Models all over the place 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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