MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:19 PM, Allsnow said: Looks like 06z AI euro Expand Nice little snowfall 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:21 PM, MJO812 said: Nice little snowfall Expand That’s our best bet before the cold/dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:22 PM, Allsnow said: That’s our best bet before the cold/dry Expand Well at least whatever falls has staying power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Atlanta and Raleigh fringed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:37 PM, EastonSN+ said: Atlanta and Raleigh fringed. Expand Cmc has a big hit up here the 22nd 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:22 PM, Allsnow said: That’s our best bet before the cold/dry Expand Check out the cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:38 PM, Stormlover74 said: Cmc has a big hit up here the 22nd Expand It seems as though the GFS focuses on the first wave and the intensity of that wave pushes the boundary too far south whilst the CMC does the opposite. Euro for the tiebreaker? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:42 PM, EastonSN+ said: It seems as though the GFS focuses on the first wave and the intensity of that wave pushes the boundary too far south whilst the CMC does the opposite. Euro for the tiebreaker? Expand I'm not sure if we're playing model roulette or wave roulette or both lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:42 PM, EastonSN+ said: It seems as though the GFS focuses on the first wave and the intensity of that wave pushes the boundary too far south whilst the CMC does the opposite. Euro for the tiebreaker? Expand Yeah seems that way for now. At least we have several chances. I'd personally sacrifice the 19th for the 22nd 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:42 PM, EastonSN+ said: It seems as though the GFS focuses on the first wave and the intensity of that wave pushes the boundary too far south whilst the CMC does the opposite. Euro for the tiebreaker? Expand GFS has a 1044 high in West Virginia which suppresses the storm out to see. The CMC has a trough instead which allows the storm to come right up the coast. Interested to see what EURO has to say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:44 PM, Stormlover74 said: Yeah seems that way for now. At least we have several chances. I'd personally sacrifice the 19th for the 22nd Expand It won’t be both… one or the other imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:54 PM, Allsnow said: It won’t be both… one or the other imo Expand Yeah we'll have to hope for 1 hit. Ukie has it on Monday so naturally the euro will probably have something Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 only 25 model cycles to go 2 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:19 PM, forkyfork said: only 25 model cycles to go Expand Can't hang your hat on any solution right now ............work in progress.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro is similiar to ukie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:39 PM, MJO812 said: Euro is similiar to ukie Expand Pretty weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:40 PM, Stormlover74 said: Expand Nice storm, especially with temps in the 20s and possibly 12-15:1 ratios (Kuchera shows ~15:1, but I don't trust ratios without knowing the situation in the DGZ where snow crystals/dendrites form)...just don't want to get rain on 1/19 and then have to wait until day 9 for snow, recognizing that counting on something at day 9 is a low probability usually...but I don't think the weather cares, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:37 PM, EastonSN+ said: Atlanta and Raleigh fringed. Expand Congrats Savannah! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:42 PM, Stormlover74 said: Pretty weak Expand Yeah not too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:42 PM, Stormlover74 said: Pretty weak Expand This is the winter of light snowfalls for our area, so it would make sense. We'll probably get another inch next Sunday night lol. At least it would stay on the ground with the very cold weather next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:33 PM, winterwx21 said: This is the winter of light snowfalls for our area, so it would make sense. We'll probably get another inch next Sunday night lol. At least it would stay on the ground with the very cold weather next week. Expand I'm not buying any solution yet. Every model is different with events on different days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:36 PM, Stormlover74 said: I'm not buying any solution yet. Every model is different with events on different days Expand Need to see something within 4-5 days honestly. Next Monday looks like the best bet as we're within a week there-but would like to see model consistency...it does appear to be an arctic wave type setup which we have done well on in the past for some moderate events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:36 PM, Stormlover74 said: I'm not buying any solution yet. Every model is different with events on different days Expand I agree. I was half joking with my comment. I could see the Sunday night into Monday wave becoming a moderate event, but a long way to go on that one. It'll be quite awhile before we have a better idea on next week's threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:45 PM, RU848789 said: Nice storm, especially with temps in the 20s and possibly 12-15:1 ratios (Kuchera shows ~15:1, but I don't trust ratios without knowing the situation in the DGZ where snow crystals/dendrites form)...just don't want to get rain on 1/19 and then have to wait until day 9 for snow, recognizing that counting on something at day 9 is a low probability usually...but I don't think the weather cares, lol. Expand seems like I don't get 7 inches of snow in a month so I will gladly take this solution with 7 inches at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:45 PM, Brian5671 said: Need to see something within 4-5 days honestly. Next Monday looks like the best bet as we're within a week there-but would like to see model consistency...it does appear to be an arctic wave type setup which we have done well on in the past for some moderate events. Expand This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Definitely some support from the eps for Sunday. after that things looks cold and dry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:04 PM, Allsnow said: Definitely some support from the eps for Sunday. after that things looks cold and dry. Expand Looks like the 19th event is becoming more likely than the 22nd event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:07 PM, LibertyBell said: Looks like the 19th event is becoming more likely than the 22nd event? Expand Maybe. No other model has it that early. Cmc is alone for the 22nd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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