February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If the euro still is showing rains to Maines tomorrow at 12z.. it is likely not going to capitulate to the GFS like it has the last few weeks. That has to start today at 12z

This is a solid post by you.

[CoastalWx]

We’ll see how today goes. I’d like to see changes starting at 12z. 

[Kitz Craver]

Only saving grace is that the EURO has been consistently too warm and amped for our past few events.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is a solid post by you.

Aren’t they always ?

[CoastalWx]

Another shot for something later next week. And then ensembles have a hedge out west, but a drier look.

[WinterWolf]

The Euro has been trash…seeing changes on the next cycle will be good. But if the Euro doesn’t start doing that by tomorrow, that means nothing imo. That model has gone to within a day, and then caves lately.  So take what it shows with a grain of salt for a system 5-6 days away.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The Euro has been trash…seeing changes on the next cycle will be good. But if the Euro doesn’t start doing that by tomorrow, that means nothing imo. That model has gone to within a day, and then caves lately.  So take what it shows with a grain of salt for a system 5-6 days away.  

If Guidance at 12z tomorrow shows something like the euro, SNE is toast. 

[CoastalWx]

I say that because the past two weak systems have been easy to push south and colder when you have weak shortwaves. The set up this weekend is different, and it won’t be prone to those type of shifts.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I say that because the past two weak systems have been easy to push south and colder when you have weak shortwaves. The set up this weekend is different, and it won’t be prone to those type of shifts.

What about the one Wednesday night/ Thursday?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What about the one Wednesday night/ Thursday?

Probably for the other thread but 1-2 or 1-3 followed by sleet and then rain is my guess.

[SnoSki14]

I'd be very surprised to see cutters, after Thursday with AO so low (lowest of season) and MJO phase 8. 

I think they'll deamplify and trend south. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like the period from around the 20th onward.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the period from around the 20th onward.

Hopefully the GEFS are closer to correct.

[CoastalWx]

Well for 11-15 day

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the period from around the 20th onward.

Same here. Not to mention Nina climo gets more favorable too late winter. 

A big snowstorm in the Feb 20 - March 10th period is very possible 

[CoastalWx]

The 6z GFS is "probably" the more likely winter scenario vs all snow. You can see at hr 150 we have a s/w that is coming SE and sort of compressing the field a bit to allow the second low underneath SNE. I'm wondering if the easiest route to a colder scenario is to cheer for that, because I feel like a full court press SE is unlikely. 

[mahk_webstah]

GYX 

05Z Long Term Forecast Update...Canadian high pressure will
then briefly builds on Wednesday before being pushed off to the
northeast by an area of low pressure that will cross over the
Gulf of Maine on Thursday. This will result in widespread
precipitation with the vast majority likely falling as snow,
although some rain may mix in across southern NH and coastal ME.
Several inches of snow accumulation are possible on Thursday.
High pressure then returns for Friday and Saturday before
another potential winter storm arrives late next weekend or
early next week.

And then the risk for the weekend

Another deeper trough follows late next weekend, and
like that,, we have a much more amplified pattern. This could
bring a more significant system, with more warm air to tap into,
and a better chance for mixed precip, although, it is a week
off, so confidence is low.

[mahk_webstah]

But I don’t buy ending winter. We might have a couple of days where the systems get warmer and messier and even some rain but it looks like we go straight back into a winter pattern. We don’t get out till mid to late March.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Another failed ssw. Send that and Judah to the moon. 

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

But I don’t buy ending winter. We might have a couple of days where the systems get warmer and messier and even some rain but it looks like we go straight back into a winter pattern. We don’t get out till mid to late March.

That's currently my gut feeling as well

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the euro ends winter.

It doesn't even end winter...  It just makes it misery.    Rain than refreeze... rinse and repeat 1980s.

Not sure why "Dr No" was ever euphemistic; it should have been "Dr. Asshole"   - I mean if we're ending winter, as in penetrating thaw under climbing sun, I'd be all for that.  That shit last night's just a dudgeon

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It doesn't even end winter...  It just makes it misery.    Rain than refreeze... rinse and repeat 1980s.

Not sure why "Dr No" was ever euphemistic; it should have been "Dr. Asshole"   - I mean if were ending winter, as in penetrating thaw under climbing sun, I'd be all for that.  That shit last night's just a dudgeon

But doesn’t the correction vector still point colder?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

But doesn’t the correction vector still point colder?

You guys might be ok, it's just more dicey down here.

[ineedsnow]

BOX siding with the GFS? 

Saturday

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Light and variable wind becoming east around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday

Snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You guys might be ok, it's just more dicey down here.

I’m certainly not a promoter of regional war. I want you guys to do well almost as much as I want myself to do well. I’d like to get through Sunday with a net gain of significance on the crust.  I think that’s likely. It’s just you were talking about Stowe, which I thought was hyperbolic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd be very surprised to see cutters, after Thursday with AO so low (lowest of season) and MJO phase 8. 

I think they'll deamplify and trend south. 

 

39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Same here. Not to mention Nina climo gets more favorable too late winter. 

A big snowstorm in the Feb 20 - March 10th period is very possible 

I think SWFE will be the name of the game until the tropics become aligned with the pole....ie these will be messy systems. Now, that doesn't mean it can't trend more favorably/colder, but I don't anticipate this ending up a pure east coast snow event.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I think SWFE will be the name of the game until the tropics become aligned with the pole....ie these will be messy systems.

07-08

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m certainly not a promoter of regional war. I want you guys to do well almost as much as I want myself to do well. I’d like to get through Sunday with a net gain of significance on the crust.  I think that’s likely. It’s just you were talking about Stowe, which I thought was hyperbolic.

Well they are in the best spot.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well they are in the best spot.

Aren’t they always?

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Another shot for something later next week. And then ensembles have a hedge out west, but a drier look.

This would be Steve's "Big Dog" that he has been talking about?