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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if Thursday does decent and then we pound on the weekend, we’re well on our way to making the winter respectable…pretty much guaranteed rat if we go weak sauce thursday and then weekend is an ugly rainer. 
 

I looked at all those good runs even on the euro a few days ago and the PV was much more firmly anchored in SE Canada. We need to see that trend again. Not only does it keep this south but it also produces the confluence for a solid high. Notice how on these solutions where the PV is further west, we sneak a perfectly timed low pressure up the St Lawrence valley so there’s basically zero high…it splits it in half so you have one retreating to the Flemish cap and the other stuck out in western/central Canada. 
 

PV being west of James Bay is never good when you have a western trough moving east. 

I see that too. Like you said we’ll probably see a variety of solutions over the next two days, but those warmer solutions aren’t some crazy made up thing on models. Totally reasonable. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see that too. Like you said we’ll probably see a variety of solutions over the next two days, but those warmer solutions aren’t some crazy made up thing on models. Totally reasonable. 

I’ve been so focused on the next few events I didn’t really look at any longer term stuff but I noticed big signal around 2/20 and then beyond that the EPS building a huge PNA ridge

 

ShesNotGonnaLetUsOut.gif.e6b16c99443f1e05fd96bace57375c9b.gif

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That map is terrible too. No way the 495 belt is less than 50” per year. Not until you get down towards Mansfield/Norton. Not sure what the sub-50 is in SE NH too. 
 

My guess is Brattleboro is somewhere in the 60s for seasonal average in the valley there knowing what the averages are a bit further south in the CT river valley  

 

that blob in SE NH is the Vatican

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve been so focused on the next few events I didn’t really look at any longer term stuff but I noticed big signal around 2/20 and then beyond that the EPS building a huge PNA ridge

 

ShesNotGonnaLetUsOut.gif.e6b16c99443f1e05fd96bace57375c9b.gif

I know. I just want one of these to work out or at least have both deliver a net gainer if messy. 

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve been so focused on the next few events I didn’t really look at any longer term stuff but I noticed big signal around 2/20 and then beyond that the EPS building a huge PNA ridge

 

ShesNotGonnaLetUsOut.gif.e6b16c99443f1e05fd96bace57375c9b.gif

Big signals have been there on the long range all season, but few if any have materialized; everything seems to come down to a nowcast.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don’t know, 55” to 60” seems about right for Brattleboro.  Much more in the hills just to the W.  Just like my area. 

I checked a few sites and they were all in that range, I was up there for a bowling tournament in November and talking to the locals they said they don't get a lot of snow but not too far in the mountains gets a lot more.

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1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

I checked a few sites and they were all in that range, I was up there for a bowling tournament in November and talking to the locals they said they don't get a lot of snow but not too far in the mountains gets a lot more.

The valley gets really tight up this way, so there are big snowfall differentials within even a few miles. Above 600’ starts to make a big difference and that elevation change happens quickly, 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if Thursday does decent and then we pound on the weekend, we’re well on our way to making the winter respectable…pretty much guaranteed rat if we go weak sauce thursday and then weekend is an ugly rainer. 
 

I looked at all those good runs even on the euro a few days ago and the PV was much more firmly anchored in SE Canada. We need to see that trend again. Not only does it keep this south but it also produces the confluence for a solid high. Notice how on these solutions where the PV is further west, we sneak a perfectly timed low pressure up the St Lawrence valley so there’s basically zero high…it splits it in half so you have one retreating to the Flemish cap and the other stuck out in western/central Canada. 
 

PV being west of James Bay is never good when you have a western trough moving east. 

I would not necessarily say that.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve been so focused on the next few events I didn’t really look at any longer term stuff but I noticed big signal around 2/20 and then beyond that the EPS building a huge PNA ridge

 

ShesNotGonnaLetUsOut.gif.e6b16c99443f1e05fd96bace57375c9b.gif

 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would not necessarily say that.

This is what I meant....right now we have the tropics in conflict with the pole, but shortly beyond mid month, that will no longer be the case....huge potential.

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1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

50-60 right along I-91 in my corner of the state... So the 56" avg tracks

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

about checks out, that data I've gathered for my location goes back to late 1800s and avg is between 78-87, depending on which site, mine is more around 82, Norfolk closer to 90, they got a few hundred feet on my location though

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