Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The GFS shows you how to do a big thump for next weekend. Get that midlevel warm front really defined and slow it down just south of us and you pound town for 6-8 hours. You’ll note the vort isn’t riding up through Lake Ontario and instead comes through the Ohio valley and swings toward northern midatlantic. I will say that I'm not inclined to believe the Euro cluster's either intensity, nor the NW positions given this hemisphere circumstance. Yet, the mean keeps getting stronger on each run cycle. hahaha It seems that was also dependable correction in the run-up to last night; indeed, we saw move (actually inside of 96 hours, too) toward a better 'fit' for the limitations imposed by compression. Namely curved trajectories, like early turns, and deeper lows ..etc, are not as physically capable. I'm not sure if this is the same scenario. The GEFs, grudgingly having to admit LOL ... were a better conserved option for those limitations. So, why is the EPS mean so wildly evolved for the 16th when all those considerations are still in place? It seems so long as we're in the same pattern, a kind of "pattern relative performance" might be useful. man what a headache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM This is enough to make you go nuts. One day we have model consensus of an amazing next 2 to 3 weeks. The next day it's completely opposite. I'm just going to take them as they come. Today was a good example of all the things that could happen. I thought for sure we were going to get a 8 in or so. I barely got four. Just can't get a snowstorm around here. It still looked great and still had a great time outside with my daughter. What Will be will be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:24 PM 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I will say that I'm not inclined to believe the Euro cluster's either intensity, nor the NW positions given this hemisphere circumstance. It seems that was also dependable correction in the run-up to last night; indeed, we saw move (actually inside of 96 hours, too) toward a better 'fit' for the limitations imposed by compression. Namely curved trajectories, like early turns, and deeper lows ..etc, are not as physically capable. The GEFs, grudgingly having to admit LOL ... were a better conserved option for those limitations. So, why is the EPS mean so wildly evolved for the 16th when all those considerations are still in place? It seems so long as we're in the same pattern, a kind of "pattern relative performance" might be useful. man what a headache Glad to understand how you think the correction vector will be pointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:33 PM 10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: This is enough to make you go nuts. One day we have model consensus of an amazing next 2 to 3 weeks. The next day it's completely opposite. I'm just going to take them as they come. Today was a good example of all the things that could happen. I thought for sure we were going to get a 8 in or so. I barely got four. Just can't get a snowstorm around here. It still looked great and still had a great time outside with my daughter. What Will be will be! I dunno if it's completely opposite... First of all, I don't believe any such "consensus" contained huge confidence related to individual events - that may seem academic but still needs to be said... That pattern was more certain than the dissemination of goodies. However, I don't believe the limitations and so forth are as important to people's perceptions as they should be - that gets us into trouble. We don't filter, we let our hopes up, then we are jaded - that's our own fault... I recall saying myself back a week or so ago that we may miss some of these events that were out there at the time. Anyway, the 6th was never a big deal...and relative to that, it became even less. Then, this last night... I think it did okay, it just did it N of where people of expected. Kind of reminds me of how gradient surplus back in 2001 screwed the Mid Atlantic and sent the big storm into central NE then too - altho a different non-analog, in principle, these speed saturated patterns tend to correct down stream...etc.. Point being, it was a little less... So what we're doing is toying with the idea of a pattern relative performance. If the first couple in the series under-perform ... how does that set our confidence in the 13th or the 16th or the 20th... ? At least this is my take on it - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Glad to understand how you think the correction vector will be pointing Well ... vectors are like assholes, I guess If I were to summarize a vector I'd say pointing toward attenuating as it approaches in time, while tending suppressed. I don't know what that means for future model solutions containing dark blue ink and magenta QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:41 PM After sliding lower, my Wunderground numbers have gone back up to six for Wednesday, Thursday and 12 for the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:52 PM 11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: After sliding lower, my Wunderground numbers have gone back up to six for Wednesday, Thursday and 12 for the weekend I’m thinking they weigh the GFS OP heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:14 PM 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m thinking they weigh the GFS OP heavily. I’m not sure any model supports 6” of snow for anywhere in New England for Thursday. Maybe the Canadian was marginal for that since it was a little juicier and further east than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM I’m throwing in the towel on me getting 60” from the stretch between February 2-March 20. BOOOOOOOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:25 PM 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: That ^ bold is fact, eh ? LOL Like I said in the missive, ".. It has to be at least considered to be rarefying to a low likeliness of return..." Not sure objective consideration needs to be interpreted as zealot. You say or admit that CC is real, but then if someone offers consequence as mere hypothesis to explain observation ( hint hint, the scientific approach ) you get pissy and condescending - okay I globe is certainly warming, but quite frankly, I think it's silly to imply that a cold winter failing to result in a seasonal surplus of snowfall (so far) in our portion of the country is attributable to climate change. I think if anything, we have observed less evidence of CC around the country this season than in any recent one...though that is not meant to imply that CC is not occurring. My point is, so far, I have yet to see any convincing evidence that CC has began to significantly reduce our mean seasonal snowfall. Do I reserve the right to change my mind in several more years? Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:30 PM 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I’m throwing in the towel on me getting 60” from the stretch between February 2-March 20. BOOOOOOOO I see a pathway for me to hit 60" on the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Sunday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:34 PM 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see a pathway for me to hit 60" on the season. You could do it. We’ll have chances right through the start of March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: You could do it. We’ll have chances right through the start of March I think I went with 41-51" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Sunday at 08:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:37 PM 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see a pathway for me to hit 60" on the season. Morch cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM 5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Morch cancel? Never been a fan of the early spring idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Sunday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:45 PM 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see a pathway for me to hit 60" on the season. yes, we have a road to hit seasonal average here. I can’t begin to interpret how March might look, but the next few weeks are going to offer chances and a lot of hand wringing over mid-range model fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM FWIW, MJO on a rather favorable journey over the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:48 PM 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: yes, we have a road to hit seasonal average here. I can’t begin to interpret how March might look, but the next few weeks are going to offer chances and a lot of hand wringing over mid-range model fluctuations. March isn't going to let us out....at least the first half, won't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM About 32” for the season so I would need another 26” or so to hit average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Looks like maybe a refresher Thursday before the next bonafide threat next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:56 PM Just hoping to hit 40” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Just hoping to hit 40” How much now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 08:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:59 PM 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not sure any model supports 6” of snow for anywhere in New England for Thursday. Maybe the Canadian was marginal for that since it was a little juicier and further east than other guidance. Yes I don’t know what models they blend. GYX very confident in less than .5qpf Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:11 PM 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How much now? I honestly haven’t kept track like I used to. Think around 18” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Sunday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:24 PM About 32” for the season so I would need another 26” or so to hit average. You are slightly higher elevation than me so makes sense how you got an extra inch and a half average on meSent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted Sunday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:56 PM 2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: After sliding lower, my Wunderground numbers have gone back up to six for Wednesday, Thursday and 12 for the weekend 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m thinking they weigh the GFS OP heavily. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a forecast of 11” a week out on wunderground. That said, I’m pretty sure it is in fact a rip and read generated from the GFS op. Let’s all hope for some good breaks instead of the usual bad breaks that have happened so much recently, as we draw closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM 34 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: You are slightly higher elevation than me so makes sense how you got an extra inch and a half average on me Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Is your average really only around 57"? I feel like it should be a little higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Sunday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:02 PM 36 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: You are slightly higher elevation than me so makes sense how you got an extra inch and a half average on me Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Our elevations aren’t the difference. I think I catch the fringes of latitude dependent storms that you just miss. Otherwise Greenfield and Brattleboro average snowfall is pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:02 PM Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Our elevations aren’t the difference. I think I catch the fringes of latitude dependent storms that you just miss. Otherwise Greenfield and Brattleboro average snowfall is pretty much the same. Yea, you are in the valley, too....the elevation is trivial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Sunday at 10:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:06 PM Is your average really only around 57"? I feel like it should be a little higher than that.56Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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