February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[moneypitmike]

Next weekend looks like a thing of beauty.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Next weekend looks like a thing of beauty.  

Back dat up around 40 miles please

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can’t see past 144 yet but Ukie looks pretty pressed for next weekend too. 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to pour acid into a paper cut but I wonder if this is what our winters will be for the rest of our lives... and/or getting worse.   Like it's not going back to 1995, ever again.  This year could be a "2015" modulated by/with a "2023" temperature burst...

I'm just basing that posit on persistent "era relative behavior" and suspecting gradient is a problem -how.

Regardless of any antecedent teleconditioning correlation - the correlations are all failing.  ENSO disruptions, to -EPO only causing compression that is a base-line negative interference fuckitude...  We keep playing this game that it's just circumstantial and we'll have to wait.

What exactly would we be waiting for? 

- no, ... that completely elides that what one is waiting for may not be capable of manifesting.  It has to be at least considered to be rarefying to a low likeliness of return. I just keep coming back to this notion, as I grapple with what is impossible to ignore at this point ... it seems that we've already moved the climate needle to where we are trading off negative interference, for snow profiles at our latitude.    Like yeah ...it's cold enough, but we can't seem to get there without the compression.   In a Lego constructive, simple sense of it... if we warm the world, then try to cool off the polar domain, that means higher gradient everywhere.  Ding ding ding...  sometimes the simple explanation is the best suitable one to explain things.  

 

I’ve had that same feeling. We won’t know when we experience the last of something. 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The storms have not been big, but at least the picnic table is looking better than it has in a while.
 

I wonder how PF’s picnic tables look?

[cleetussnow]

51 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Next weekend looks like a thing of beauty.  

Not on the euro.  Cut.

[ORH_wxman]

Rain up to the chickens on euro but the primary did squash some that run…the other main difference is we had no high north of maine this time to spring a secondary reflection. It’s just one low that basically track over our heads. Still a higher end threat though. Wouldn’t take much to push that into a major snowstorm. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Not on the euro.  Cut.

Euro has corrected colder last couple events, I believe it has a good chance to again once it recognizes the press. We’ll see.

[Kitz Craver]

GFS has a nice high basically anchored just north of Maine for the weekend event. Euro has no such high, nothing. Actually has a low pressure up there as the weekend storm approaches. Really different looks.

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rain up to the chickens on euro but the primary did squash some that run…the other main difference is we had no high north of maine this time to spring a secondary reflection. It’s just one low that basically track over our heads. Still a higher end threat though. Wouldn’t take much to push that into a major snowstorm. 

Next weekend is going to be all over the place, especially if we are counting on a well timed high pressure and as well as what ever happens the middle of next week.

[78Blizzard]

It's the Euro vs the world once again on the op.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Next weekend is going to be all over the place, especially if we are counting on a well timed high pressure and as well as what ever happens the middle of next week.

The key for next weekend aloft is for the PV to be pressed and stay ahead of the main shortwave coming out of the west. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Finally ... a Euro solution in this pattern where everyone brims with d-drippin' joy

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The key for next weekend aloft is for the PV to be pressed and stay ahead of the main shortwave coming out of the west. 

 

 

Right, GFS is showing just that, no? While euro races ahead of it?

[ORH_wxman]

Here’s GFS. Look how much further southeast it is with PV in eastern Canada…fully east of Hudson’s bay  

 

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s GFS. Look how much further southeast it is with PV in eastern Canada…fully east of Hudson’s bay  

 

Seems to be a subtle difference and with 140ish hrs to go, plenty of time to go either way....Euro has definitely been amp happy in the long range recently, so who knows.... 

[78Blizzard]

The EPS looks even worse than the op.  That PV seems to be retrograding.

[moneypitmike]

This doesn't look shabby, does it?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to pour acid into a paper cut but I wonder if this is what our winters will be for the rest of our lives... and/or getting worse.   Like it's not going back to 1995, ever again.  This year could be a "2015" modulated by/with a "2023" temperature burst...

I'm just basing that posit on persistent "era relative behavior" and suspecting gradient is a problem -how.

Regardless of any antecedent teleconditioning correlation - the correlations are all failing.  ENSO disruptions, to -EPO only causing compression that is a base-line negative interference fuckitude...  We keep playing this game that it's just circumstantial and we'll have to wait.

What exactly would we be waiting for? 

- no, ... that completely elides that what one is waiting for may not be capable of manifesting.  It has to be at least considered to be rarefying to a low likeliness of return. I just keep coming back to this notion, as I grapple with what is impossible to ignore at this point ... it seems that we've already moved the climate needle to where we are trading off negative interference, for snow profiles at our latitude.    Like yeah ...it's cold enough, but we can't seem to get there without the compression.   In a Lego constructive, simple sense of it... if we warm the world, then try to cool off the polar domain, that means higher gradient everywhere.  Ding ding ding...  sometimes the simple explanation is the best suitable one to explain things.  

 

Either that, or we're simply still regressing after a robust couple of decades. This becomes much more viable if we're still doing this in about 7-8 years. 

Here is a crazy, fantastic notion right out of a sci fi novel....perhaps exotic storms and seasons don't grow on trees??

Imagine?

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This doesn't look shabby, does it?

That would work

[Damage In Tolland]

Spread all much better than op . Toss op 

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Either that, or we're simply still regressing after a robust couple of decades. This becomes much more viable if we're still doing this in about 7-8 years. 

Here is a crazy, fantastic notion right out of a sci fi novel....perhaps exotic storms and seasons don't grow on trees??

Imagine?

ehh  there's something else obviously different - sorry        Sometimes a when quacks like a duck, it's a duck. I guess we'll find.   

Above will turn out true ...and summarily everyone thinks how 'no one saw it coming'   lol   

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ehh  there's something else obviously different - sorry        Sometimes a when quacks like a duck, it's a duck. I guess we'll find.   

Above will turn out true ...and summarily everyone thinks how 'no one saw it coming'   lol   

What would that be? My mean snowfall since 2015 is right about at 60", and we just saw record snowfall all throughout the south. I think you need to accept reality even when it doesn't fit neatly within your agenda.

Sorry.

CC is real, but zealots like yourself are prone to fantastic over attribution. 

Fact, not opinion.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rain up to the chickens on euro but the primary did squash some that run…the other main difference is we had no high north of maine this time to spring a secondary reflection. It’s just one low that basically track over our heads. Still a higher end threat though. Wouldn’t take much to push that into a major snowstorm. 

EPS mean is under 990 mb E of Boston, having moved from the Bite along or just S of LI, but ut the 850 mb is too warm. 

Altho I'm not sure that's abundantly important for the resolution/mean at 168+ hours.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Spread all much better than op . Toss op 

That’s kind of late in the system. Back that up 2 frames. Huge spread on EPS. But the mean is like 7” for the pike region despite plenty of members looking like the OP run. But there’s also plenty of members that have huge hits well into double digits. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

EPS mean is under 990 mb E of Boston, having moved from the Bite along or just S of LI, but ut the 850 mb is too warm. 

Altho I'm not sure that's abundantly important for the resolution/mean at 168+ hours.

Not very coherent on the clustering ……looks more like Buck shot…but yeah, we’re still a week out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s kind of late in the system. Back that up 2 frames. Huge spread on EPS. But the mean is like 7” for the pike region despite plenty of members looking like the OP run. But there’s also plenty of members that have huge hits well into double digits. 

A betting man would hedge it ends up like this one last night or a change to ice. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What would that be? My mean snowfall since 2015 is right about at 60", and we just saw record snowfall all throughout the south. I think you need to accept reality even when it doesn't fit neatly within your agenda.

Sorry.

CC is real, but zealots like yourself are prone to fantastic over attribution. 

Fact, not opinion.

That ^ bold is fact, eh ?  LOL  

Like I said in the missive, ".. It has to be at least considered to be rarefying to a low likeliness of return..."    

Not sure objective consideration needs to be interpreted as zealot.  

You say or admit that CC is real, but then if someone offers consequence as mere hypothesis to explain observation ( hint hint, the scientific approach ) you get pissy and condescending -

okay

 

 

[alex]

It is absolutely epic out there, no other way to describe it. 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Now THAT is something to take our dungarees off to .

Toughskins?