February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Hoth]

32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Unless 1888 walks through the door, and it’s not, this winter is irredeemable to me. This winter just won’t do it here—regardless of what the pretty maps we worship say. 

Sincerely happy for the folks that cashed in today. I won’t scoff at that or the wintry vibe outside. 

Two failed WSWs in a row, and now we seem to be on the wrong side of the gradient going forward. Just blows.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The storms have not been big, but at least the picnic table is looking better than it has in a while.
 

[George001]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not seeing a lot to be optimistic about in SNE over the next 10 days or so 

I disagree it’s a very active period, we have an ice storm coming on Thursday and possibly another one on Sunday. Well, I would say we are in agreement that this pattern favors CNE/NNE for big snows more than here, for me though I get excited about all kinds of wintry precip (not just snow). If you want more snow and less ice you aren’t wrong. This pattern favors northern areas, CNE/NNE are likely going to see 2+ feet over the next couple of weeks. I would expect ptype issues to keep totals down for us. Btw, for as much shit as I gave you about this most recent storm your original idea was 100% right. The QPF was simply not there for big totals, more of a general 2-4/3-6 for SNE than the 6-8 I expected. I was wrong, gotta own it. Northern areas did well though, some 8-9 inch totals in CNE. 

[msg112469]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

I disagree it’s a very active period, we have an ice storm coming on Thursday and possibly another one on Sunday. Well, I would say we are in agreement that this pattern favors CNE/NNE for big snows more than here, for me though I get excited about all kinds of wintry precip (not just snow). If you want more snow and less ice you aren’t wrong. This pattern favors northern areas, CNE/NNE are likely going to see 2+ feet over the next couple of weeks. I would expect ptype issues to keep totals down for us. Btw, for as much shit as I gave you about this most recent storm your original idea was 100% right. The QPF was simply not there for big totals, more of a general 2-4/3-6 for SNE than the 6-8 I expected. I was wrong, gotta own it. Northern areas did well though, some 8-9 inch totals in CNE. 

100%. Just thinking the exact same thing. These storms are a nuisance as far as I'm concerned. I'm sitting here pissed that I actually need to get outside and fire up the snow blower for another mediocre 4" storm.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, msg112469 said:

100%. Just thinking the exact same thing. These storms are a nuisance as far as I'm concerned. I'm sitting here pissed that I actually need to get outside and fire up the snow blower for another mediocre 4" storm.

The thing that annoys me most is the storms are falling short of what’s expected. The NWS had me at 6-9 inches and I got around 4. I thought I had a good chance to get 7-8 last night for a bit, but unfortunately that didn’t pan out. Probably just the pattern, these storms are flying. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

NAM the proverbial hair better for Tuesday night?

You’ll continue to see Tuesday night slowly creep north today and tomorrow . I’d be pretty surprised if there is not a 1-3” deal to I -90 at least if not north .

[WxWatcher007]

36 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Two failed WSWs in a row, and now we seem to be on the wrong side of the gradient going forward. Just blows.

Despite me being totally out on winter, I do think we’re still in the game for a very nice period. I don’t think the storms moving forward are going to blast the r/s 100 miles to our north without decent front ends at least. It’s just going to be tough sledding to produce big snow events. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS really pressing confluence for next weekend this run. Looks like it’s gonna be a pretty cold system this run 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wrong side of the gradient .. .?   
I think by that we mean just warm.  The gradient is Cuba to Hudson Bay distinction.  Lol...

But even so, the 12z GFS traded off strength for the 13th, which allows for colder solution. 

16th is coming in chilly too.   Seems the models are oscillating within the gradient manifold so taken with a degree of incredulity.

[WxWatcher007]

The other good thing is that these are all short to medium range. We’re already in range for Tuesday and Thursday. No waiting a week to see if something materializes, everything is in the pipeline.

[Typhoon Tip]

Also - the 16th has the better shot of being a  "criteria verifying" event than the predecessors.   

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The other good thing is that these are all short to medium range. We’re already in range for Tuesday and Thursday. No waiting a week to see if something materializes, everything is in the pipeline.

Yup. These frequent events make it enjoyable . Even if all nickels and dimes. Certainly better than talking about an 8-10 day East coast bomb that won’t happen 

[ORH_wxman]

The GFS shows you how to do a big thump for next weekend. Get that midlevel warm front really defined and slow it down just south of us and you pound town for 6-8 hours. You’ll note the vort isn’t riding up through Lake Ontario and instead comes through the Ohio valley and swings toward northern midatlantic. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. These frequent events make it enjoyable . Even if all nickels and dimes. Certainly better than talking about an 8-10 day East coast bomb that won’t happen 

I couldn’t possibly agree more. This is far more enjoyable. 

[CoastalWx]

 Come on gfs

[MJO812]

Great trends going forward. Everything is deamping on this run.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. These frequent events make it enjoyable . Even if all nickels and dimes. Certainly better than talking about an 8-10 day East coast bomb that won’t happen 

Yeah true.
 

I don’t know, this was a bitter pill for me. I was excited for this. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah true.
 

I don’t know, this was a bitter pill for me. I was excited for this. 

I was somewhat irritated when I looked out at 3:00AM and saw it was half what I was expecting .  But we’ve had so many let downs and models performing badly this winter .. I’m kind of numb to some degree . I just enjoy tracking multiple events and we do have that the next couple weeks . I doubt highly any big dog this winter . 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah true.
 

I don’t know, this was a bitter pill for me. I was excited for this. 

WCB was pretty disappointing in this event. Looked like we had enough inflow to pound for 5-6 hours but it was really just about a 3 hour deal. I think at the end of the day, the synoptics really can be a guideline…it’s hard to hammer solid warning criteria for us when you have a vort going from Toronto through the chicken coops…we’re south of all of that…so you prob just get that initial surge like we saw down in NYC and LI and then it kind of runs out of deeper level support and weakens a bit when there’s a lack of PVA and the extra divergence aloft that comes with it. 
 

Hopefully we can grab some dynamics in these next couple systems. Weekend looks better but subtle shifts east today make Thursday slightly more interesting. 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah true.
 

I don’t know, this was a bitter pill for me. I was excited for this. 

It's never fun when tblizz's forecast verifies, because it's just means the storm underperformed

[MJO812]

Cmc looks much better for next weekend with a better press.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc looks much better for next weekend with a better press.

That is Kevin’s dream storm. It’s like 42-48 hours straight of snow on GGEM over SNE next weekend. Goes from Saturday afternoon to Monday afternoon. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

WCB was pretty disappointing in this event. Looked like we had enough inflow to pound for 5-6 hours but it was really just about a 3 hour deal. I think at the end of the day, the synoptics really can be a guideline…it’s hard to hammer solid warning criteria for us when you have a vort going from Toronto through the chicken coops…we’re south of all of that…so you prob just get that initial surge like we saw down in NYC and LI and then it kind of runs out of deeper level support and weakens a bit when there’s a lack of PVA and the extra divergence aloft that comes with it. 
 

Hopefully we can grab some dynamics in these next couple systems. Weekend looks better but subtle shifts east today make Thursday slightly more interesting. 

Yeah, I saw the writing on the wall last evening. It looks pretty though so I’ll give it that. I just really wanna break the 6 inch mark lol.

[CoastalWx]

Wow that would be amazing. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro did cave with today's storm, so maybe there's hope that it will move towards the GFS/GGEM with the Thurs/Sunday storms

[DavisStraight]

32 minutes ago, msg112469 said:

100%. Just thinking the exact same thing. These storms are a nuisance as far as I'm concerned. I'm sitting here pissed that I actually need to get outside and fire up the snow blower for another mediocre 4" storm.

I'm happy whenever I fire up the snow blower, the more the better. This winter may end up average, average snow, average temp, much better than recent winters.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is Kevin’s dream storm. It’s like 42-48 hours straight of snow on GGEM over SNE next weekend. Goes from Saturday afternoon to Monday afternoon. 

Now THAT is something to take our dungarees off to .

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I was somewhat irritated when I looked out at 3:00AM and saw it was half what I was expecting .  But we’ve had so many let downs and models performing badly this winter .. I’m kind of numb to some degree . I just enjoy tracking multiple events and we do have that the next couple weeks . I doubt highly any big dog this winter . 

I was ripping here at like 1a. But then I saw radar and knew it wouldn’t last long. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I was ripping here at like 1a. But then I saw radar and knew it wouldn’t last long. 

I’d be much more upset if it was going to warm up and melt on Monday . That’s what I can’t handle . The melting after we just got the snow 

[ORH_wxman]

Can’t see past 144 yet but Ukie looks pretty pressed for next weekend too.