February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[ma blizzard]

quite the ice storm next weekend on the 0z Euro 

[H2Otown_WX]

7 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

quite the ice storm next weekend on the 0z Euro 

Lot of snow too for VT/NH/ME

[ice1972]

8 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

quite the ice storm next weekend on the 0z Euro 

lol 7 days out....stop

[Diggiebot]

43 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

lol 7 days out....stop

Ice storms never materialize. They are one in 20 year unicorns. Not happening James! 

[brooklynwx99]

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The block is to far north and the pv is not south of Hudson Bay. You need that with a -pna and se ridge 

that -PNA is early on. the 16th is when the trough fully swings through... we can see a snowfall there if the confluence is strong enough but I was just showing the block at its strongest. when it breaks down around the 20th, the pattern continues to become even more favorable

[ice1972]

50 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Ice storms never materialize. They are one in 20 year unicorns. Not happening James! 

At 7 days nothing materializes lol….winter has sucked so bad for so long…I’m do done….

[powderfreak]

Not bad.

[dendrite]

07-08?

[Kitz Craver]

Next weekend looks like the next legit threat, who knows though, GFS is on the good shit lately 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

07-08?

It’s looked that way for a couple weeks.  But maybe capped with a big dog

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Not bad.

Note this includes the event lastnight/today, so lop those off the expectaions moving forward.    I love the 38-40 on that map for ME.   I see manhy trips coming up.

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Note this includes the event lastnight/today, so lop those off the expectaions moving forward.    I love the 38-40 on that map for ME.   I see manhy trips coming up.

Ouch, so take off my 4 from last night and I’m looking at 8” for 300hrs. Whole lotta meh

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Note this includes the event lastnight/today, so lop those off the expectaions moving forward.    I love the 38-40 on that map for ME.   I see manhy trips coming up.

Yeah I mean the Euro had about 0.25-0.4” QPF for SW ME… so cut 2-4” off it for 10:1 maps.  Not much there.

But you’re right the haircut in SNE is different.

[moneypitmike]

7 hours ago, ma blizzard said:

quite the ice storm next weekend on the 0z Euro 

If it's still showing that 6 hours before start time, wake me up.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

It’s looked that way for a couple weeks.  But maybe capped with a big dog

07-08 started with the Irish Wolfhound of snowstorms, Valentines Day 2007 is the largest storm I’ve experienced, 36” here. 

[dryslot]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Not bad.

 

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

07-08?

Could be an epic stretch like that winter.

[TheMainer]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Not bad.

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

Could be an epic stretch like that winter.

Hopefully I end up being mad the wife made me go to Aruba April break cause we're still snowmobiling, think we rode May 1st that winter. Honestly with all the ice and frost we have this could be an epic spring riding year, just need to build a 3-4 foot pack up here to survive the 40s and sun. 

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, mreaves said:

07-08 started with the Irish Wolfhound of snowstorms, Valentines Day 2007 is the largest storm I’ve experienced, 36” here. 

That’s 06-07

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m not seeing a lot to be optimistic about in SNE over the next 10 days or so 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not seeing a lot to be optimistic about in SNE over the next 10 days or so 

Of course you aren't 

[CoastalWx]

Ahh the charts. 

[mreaves]

15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That’s 06-07

You’re right. My memory was snow blinded. 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

NAM the proverbial hair better for Tuesday night?

[WxWatcher007]

Unless 1888 walks through the door, and it’s not, this winter is irredeemable to me. This winter just won’t do it here—regardless of what the pretty maps we worship say. 

Sincerely happy for the folks that cashed in today. I won’t scoff at that or the wintry vibe outside. 

[tavwtby]

gotta say a little disappointed in the last couple events amounts, but I'll take these over cold dry and windy for days and days, at least there's something to track.

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh the charts. 

We cut 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

gotta say a little disappointed in the last couple events amounts, but I'll take these over cold dry and windy for days and days, at least there's something to track.

It is certainly better than what we had. Hopefully we can get late Tuesday to trend north more. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It is certainly better than what we had. Hopefully we can get late Tuesday to trend north more. 

I feel the same way you do. It looks beautiful out and I’m happy for the folks that cashed in, but I honestly expected to do at least 6 inches and was excited to finally break that. It’s just frustrating to have another disappointment but oh well.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel the same way you do. It looks beautiful out and I’m happy for the folks that cashed in, but I honestly expected to do at least 6 inches and was excited to finally break that. It’s just frustrating to have another disappointment but oh well.

Not to pour acid into a paper cut but I wonder if this is what our winters will be for the rest of our lives... and/or getting worse.   Like it's not going back to 1995, ever again.  This year could be a "2015" modulated by/with a "2023" temperature burst...

I'm just basing that posit on persistent "era relative behavior" and suspecting gradient is a problem -how.

Regardless of any antecedent teleconditioning correlation - the correlations are all failing.  ENSO disruptions, to -EPO only causing compression that is a base-line negative interference fuckitude...  We keep playing this game that it's just circumstantial and we'll have to wait.

What exactly would we be waiting for? 

- no, ... that completely elides that what one is waiting for may not be capable of manifesting.  It has to be at least considered to be rarefying to a low likeliness of return. I just keep coming back to this notion, as I grapple with what is impossible to ignore at this point ... it seems that we've already moved the climate needle to where we are trading off negative interference, for snow profiles at our latitude.    Like yeah ...it's cold enough, but we can't seem to get there without the compression.   In a Lego constructive, simple sense of it... if we warm the world, then try to cool off the polar domain, that means higher gradient everywhere.  Ding ding ding...  sometimes the simple explanation is the best suitable one to explain things.  

 

[Prismshine Productions]

And with that we officially pass last season's total (42.5")...

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk