February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[FXWX]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Imagine?

Actually, nothing out of the ordinary for many winters when you get a warm frontal passage due to the passage of a strong cutter; during which a brief (few hours) surge of warmth occurs; often its +50, and occasionally its 60+.   Even during cold winters there is often a cutter or two that features warmth overwhelming the region; especially southeastern NY & SNE. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

41 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Actually, nothing out of the ordinary for many winters when you get a warm frontal passage due to the passage of a strong cutter; during which a brief (few hours) surge of warmth occurs; often its +50, and occasionally its 60+.   Even during cold winters there is often a cutter or two that features warmth overwhelming the region; especially southeastern NY & SNE. 

Happens almost every year. We were near 60 before new years. 

[George001]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Screams damaging ice storm 

Agree that it’s a good ice storm setup. The 12z eps for Feb 2nd during the first part of the storm has surface temps in the 20s and the 850s are +4-5C AN

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Happens almost every year. We were near 60 before new years. 

Yep

[Typhoon Tip]

Thread that needle…. it’s like we’re coming full circle with this potential 
Or trying to  

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Thread that needle…. it’s like we’re coming full circle with this potential 
 

 

Think that might tick north slightly into a region-wide or remain mostly SoP?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Think that might tick north slightly into a region-wide or remain mostly SoP?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

It’s moving through the proverbial meat grinder with that oppressive jet careening by (N/stream).  Unless that alleviates … that’s what it would take 

But I don’t know if the general wholesale synoptic handling is even right …

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM has gone colder on the 2/1 threat too. Shows a big front ender with the classic looking bent back ML warm front that we often see on SWFEs. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM has gone colder on the 2/1 threat too. Shows a big front ender with the classic looking bent back ML warm front that we often see on SWFEs. 

Yup…

this event’s got some serious resiliency in the runs … It’s sub index at this point but who cares. It won’t  be denied 

GFS still promoting a thaw soon after but it’s real tenuous looking 

[weathafella]

EPS is pretty cold for those early February systems.

[UnitedWx]

6 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Think that might tick north slightly into a region-wide or remain mostly SoP?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

See the 6Z for that possibility 

[UnitedWx]

[dendrite]

Yeah goofus is a classic swfe/redeveloper all snow event here.

[Damage In Tolland]

One hell of an icestorm look 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One hell of an icestorm look 

Snow to sleet to light freezing drizzle most likely.  I mean, there certainly could be a narrow band of heavier icing, but seems like classic SWFE.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Snow to sleet to light freezing drizzle most likely.  I mean, there certainly could be a narrow band of heavier icing, but seems like classic SWFE.

Yeah. Not much ice.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Snow to sleet to light freezing drizzle most likely.  I mean, there certainly could be a narrow band of heavier icing, but seems like classic SWFE.

Looks to me like starts as snow to solid zr . Still a week out so who really knows 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks to me like starts as snow to solid zr . Still a week out so who really knows 

We just don’t. Nobody does. It will change many times but we will know in 8 days. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We just don’t. Nobody does. It will change many times but we will know in 8 days. 

The Wolf knows 

[ineedsnow]

This could still be a whiff or rain.. after the clipper we should know more.  Who the hell knows what ptype will be 

[ORH_wxman]

Those types of systems typically only have a narrow area of ice and usually it’s not stationary enough to give big amounts. Once in a while you might get a narrow band of warning ice but it’s pretty rare. 
 

My guess is the frozen precip will be dominated by snow and sleet. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Can already envision the warm nose aloft on the NAM appearing at 3 days out and the usual suspects ignoring it . This reminds me of that Feb event 2 years ago 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

This could still be a whiff or rain.. after the clipper we should know more.  Who the hell knows what ptype will be 

Doubt it whiffs.  Certainly could rain or suppress enough to mainly affect only SNE/CNE.  Hoping for snow up in the Conway area since I’m heading up there. 

[ORH_wxman]

We’ll see how it trends today but it was a hard trend colder overnight. Even the 06z EPS was noticeably colder than the 00z EPS which had already trended colder with a CAD look. 
 

06z EPS only goes to 144 but you can see how cold that look is right now with the low up in the maritimes and a scooter high building in as the low is in the Ohio valley…with potential for some weaker ripples of low already south of us by that point  

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see how it trends today but it was a hard trend colder overnight. Even the 06z EPS was noticeably colder than the 00z EPS which had already trended colder with a CAD look. 
 

06z EPS only goes to 144 but you can see how cold that look is right now with the low up in the maritimes and a scooter high building in as the low is in the Ohio valley…with potential for some weaker ripples of low already south of us by that point  

 

Tried to tell em yesterday.. There's a ton of cold air available from the persistent seasonal -EPO and lack of mild pacific air torching Canada.. Just give us the moisture and we will take our chances.. Nothing is a lock, but I like the trends for now..

[Prismshine Productions]

Snow to sleet to light freezing drizzle most likely.  I mean, there certainly could be a narrow band of heavier icing, but seems like classic SWFE.

Me and you stay all snow, we far enough inland we avoided the warm nose on the 6z Goofus

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[Prismshine Productions]

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

Toss the kuchera in these.

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk


 

These are pretty standard 6 to 10 inches. Sometimes the ones that are juicier or have deeper redevelopment can get up into the 12 to 15 inch range but always bet on 6 to 10 if it looks like a solid system.  Nice thing about these is once they show up on multiple model suites they tend to be very easy to track and there are generally wild swings or sudden disappearances. Would be nice for something “” normal.

[Prismshine Productions]

Toss the kuchera in these.

SWFEs follow a lower ratio?

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk