February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So excited and amped 

I wouldn't get too worked up about Tuesday

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wouldn't get too worked up about Tuesday

Big ice and then snow next one 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still early 

Getting late 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Getting late 

Menstrual?

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Menstrual?

Bag of Peas on groin?

[DavisStraight]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big ice and then snow next one 

You're getting greedy, lot of snow coming asd then you want a crippling lose power for a week ice storm, no thanks, all snow is just fine.

[H2Otown_WX]

Euro mostly rain for next weekend

[ORH_wxman]

Trends today have been kind of lame for Thursday. It’s a cold look (esp at sfc) but the vort wrapping up further west means we get this quick shot of WAA precip and dryslot. Hopefully we trend that back east just a touch. 
 

Next weekend is still all over the place. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trends today have been kind of lame for Thursday. It’s a cold look (esp at sfc) but the vort wrapping up further west means we get this quick shot of WAA precip and dryslot. Hopefully we trend that back east just a touch. 
 

Next weekend is still all over the place. 

We already knew not all of these were going to work out, random deterministic orgie runs not withstanding....

[brooklynwx99]

personally I find it very hard to believe there isn't going to be a large storm when a four sigma west-based -NAO breaks down

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Euro mostly rain for next weekend

No 

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trends today have been kind of lame for Thursday. It’s a cold look (esp at sfc) but the vort wrapping up further west means we get this quick shot of WAA precip and dryslot. Hopefully we trend that back east just a touch. 
 

Next weekend is still all over the place. 

Icer 

[Spanks45]

The Euro is gearing up for Springtime just to our south....any flex from the SER and birds start chirping their Spring songs. Euro and GFS OPs couldn't be any further apart it seems in the 10-15 range.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally I find it very hard to believe there isn't going to be a large storm when a four sigma west-based -NAO breaks down

23-26th

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The Euro is gearing up for Springtime just to our south....any flex from the SER and birds start chirping their Spring songs. Euro and GFS OPs couldn't be any further apart it seems in the 10-15 range.

The Euro is all alone in that day 12 depiction of the deep trough in the east with a big warmup here. None of the ensembles show that, and neither does the Euro-AI. 

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The Euro is all alone in that day 12 depiction of the deep trough in the east with a big warmup here. None of the ensembles show that, and neither does the Euro-AI. 

This is confusing

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

This is confusing

He meant trough to our west. EPS is cold though.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

This is confusing

As Dendy said EPS members are nothing like OP. GEFS as well

[mahk_webstah]

Wunderground giving me 2’ out n 7 days unread of 31”.  
 

the weekend will sort itself out.  Ain’t complaining!

[Henry's Weather]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally I find it very hard to believe there isn't going to be a large storm when a four sigma west-based -NAO breaks down

4 sigma on a day 6 ensemble run… nuts

[HoarfrostHubb]

27 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wunderground giving me 2’ out n 7 days unread of 31”.  
 

the weekend will sort itself out.  Ain’t complaining!

Yeah. 25” here on their graphic forecast through the 17th

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally I find it very hard to believe there isn't going to be a large storm when a four sigma west-based -NAO breaks down

The block is to far north and the pv is not south of Hudson Bay. You need that with a -pna and se ridge 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The block is to far north and the pv is not south of Hudson Bay. You need that with a -pna and se ridge 

Maybe for NYC, but it looks fine for this area....give me the -PNA, especially after January.

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe for NYC, but it looks fine for this area....give me the -PNA, especially after January.

Your biggest issue is if the -pna is too deep out west. You need something to redevelop similar to tonight. But if that block is further north it will hold on to the primary longer 

[ORH_wxman]

You don’t want the PV partially phasing with the main shortwave until very late in the game. Those more amped runs are trying to rotate the PV or PV lobes just far enough west to do a little partial phase and send this thing up to BUF…and the colder/snowier solutions delay that process or just flat out keep it from occurring. 

[SouthCoastMA]

18z euro ticked north with Tuesday system..gets a couple inches to the south coast. Though we'll need to see some movement at 0z from the other models

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Your biggest issue is if the -pna is too deep out west. You need something to redevelop similar to tonight. But if that block is further north it will hold on to the primary longer 

Right, but this isn't March 2023....I'll take my chances with a -PNA where I am, as opposed to a "perfect" pattern.

I'll will take primary issues over confluence issues.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You don’t want the PV partially phasing with the main shortwave until very late in the game. Those more amped runs are trying to rotate the PV or PV lobes just far enough west to do a little partial phase and send this thing up to BUF…and the colder/snowier solutions delay that process or just flat out keep it from occurring. 

December 2022.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The very last thing I want is a gradient over the pike region while I hear the CT chorus telling me how great it looks.

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The very last thing I want is a gradient over the pike region while I hear the CT chorus telling me how great it looks.

I don’t think anyone in SNE wants the gradient over the pike region