February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[moneypitmike]

I'm glad to see hope from the 18z GFS.  Keep us on the  board longer. 

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Has Kuchie ever verified in any storm???

If the 10:1 maps are cocaine, kuchie is like synthetic crack from China 

I need a hit. gimme that sweet sweet carfentynyl Kuchie baby. 

[Torch Tiger]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm glad to see hope from the 18z GFS.  Keep us on the  board longer. 

pls don't go <3

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Has Kuchie ever verified in any storm???

If the 10:1 maps are cocaine, kuchie is like synthetic crack from China 

Sure, but it’s a matter of the type of system and how the temp profile of the storm lines up. But there isn’t a lot of skill with it. It’s just saying the colder the temp profile is the higher the ratio will be…which we know isn’t always the case. Usually it will do well with the deformation banding since there’s usually strong mid level lift in the DGZ with a cold temp profile.

I’m surprised someone hasn’t come up with Cobb snow maps yet.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/16 back to being a big snow hit on GFS....that one is prob gonna be all over the map for a bit.

Oh that’s the biggest threat of this pattern if not the whole season 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I need to hear you scream it like this

 

Great song 

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z Euro looked a little thumpier for Thursday. I think that one still has some solid upside…obviously risks too as we know. But there’s some 12/16/07 possibilities there (maybe even something better if we can redevelop it quicker?)….good airmass ahead of it if the synoptics can do ok. 

18z EPS is definitely trended colder with faster redevelopment for Thursday

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I referred to the 13th as a “trap game” event this morning page 79. 

It’s possible that the 16th is the more fantastic signal before Thursday and folks might not be paying attention.  But the 13th is already thread able imho.  Solid presentation by multiple ens means

…and a  Miller A is already on the operational maps. Frankly that one has a greater QPF potential due to source/origin than really any to date 

The means are too far inland with a primary for comfort but there’s time 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I referred to the 13th as a “trap game” event. 

It’s possible that the 16th is the more fantastic signal before Thursday and folks might not be paying attention.  But the 13th is already thread able imho.  Solid presentation by multiple end means

…and a  Miller A is already on the operational maps. Frankly that one has a greater QPF potential due to source/origin. 

The means are too far inland with a primary for comfort but there’s time 

My weather underground site has had this as a 7 to 9 inch snow for a couple of days now. But I’ve been distracted by both Sunday and then what looks like a big storm next weekend.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I referred to the 13th as a “trap game” event. 

It’s possible that the 16th is the more fantastic signal before Thursday and folks might not be paying attention.  But the 13th is already thread able imho.  Solid presentation by multiple ens means

…and a  Miller A is already on the operational maps. Frankly that one has a greater QPF potential due to source/origin. 

The means are too far inland with a primary for comfort but there’s time 

Heh…posted the new EPS at the same time you posted new GEFS…both pretty similar. Definitely an upside threat there (obviously we know the risks too)

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Heh…posted the new EPS at the same time you posted new GEFS…both pretty similar. Definitely an upside threat there (obviously we know the risks too)

Ice still threat?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ice still threat?

Sure but the colder it trends, more QPF would fall as snow. I think the 2/16 threat might synoptically be more favored for a larger impact icing threat.  The high looks a bit further west in that one. 
 

But I do like where the 2/13 high is as the storm comes in. It’s like running the system into a brick wall and those can often produce huge front end thumps. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

5 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So is skynet the new Euro AI? And is it really that reliable. From what I'm seeing And hearing it seems to be. 

Yes, it is the new euro AI.  It is promising, seems to be good beyond day four.  Way too early to draw conclusions about its efficacy, though.

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that won’t happen

You're thinking more?

[Spanks45]

Amazing the difference from the front of my yard to the back...almost like 2 different climates, crazy look today.

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Amazing the difference from the front of my yard to the back...almost like 2 different climates, crazy look today.

Is that near the Training School?

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is that near the Training School?

Yeah, how could you tell?

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z Euro looked a little thumpier for Thursday. I think that one still has some solid upside…obviously risks too as we know. But there’s some 12/16/07 possibilities there (maybe even something better if we can redevelop it quicker?)….good airmass ahead of it if the synoptics can do ok. 

As we thought….The Press is being seen.  And we aren’t seeing any unicorns as was suggested earlier today..but just the pattern playing out as depicted.  

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/16 back to being a big snow hit on GFS....that one is prob gonna be all over the map for a bit.

Oh wait, when we suggested that it would change earlier today, we were accused of looking at unicorns.   Hmm? 

[Go Kart Mozart]

31 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Yeah, how could you tell?

I used to ride my bike there almost weekly.  I would start at the Hawley School in Newtown.  Go through Brookfield, Bridgewater, Roxbury, Wash Depot, Woodbury, down to South Britain, back to Newtown.  45 miles.

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I used to ride my bike there almost weekly.  I would start at the Hawley School in Newtown.  Go through Brookfield, Bridgewater, Roxbury, Wash Depot, Woodbury, down to South Britain, back to Newtown.  45 miles.

Wow, that's impressive! That's my backroads to Costco, just riding through the Purchase had to be tough, but the rest of the way is crazy

[SouthCoastMA]

18z Euro-AI was a weenie run, holy cow 

[dendrite]

Snow banks are getting high and we’re just getting started.

[powderfreak]

Flurries.  Flakes just keep flying, even if just a trace down here in the valley.

[Spanks45]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Snow banks are getting high and we’re just getting started.

Jealous....my kids have tunneled through ours, they would love a bigger tunnel

[WinterWolf]

Tell them It’s coming tomorrow…btw, those are very cool. We used to do that in our driveway too growing up(77-78 was a huge year in CT). Great stuff. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Snowbank

 

[Ginx snewx]

Bankin 

 

[mahk_webstah]

Never seen so much snow forecast on Wunderground for this area.

6 tonight tomorrow (probably low)

8 Wednesday Thursday 

16 Saturday Sunday 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Weds/Thurs looks sloppy for a bunch of SNE on the GFS.   Next weekend tho…