February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[weathafella]

Even this thread which is about Saturday night goes to shit.  I used to post among the most frequent.  These unreadable threads have made it much less fun.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No it certainly may not be,  but to me that looks like the more likely outcome. Trust me I’m all set with pics of nude skiers in quads or pics of teethless French women riding skidoos in East Moosescrotum Maine. I hope it’s more region wide, but be prepared for those visions above. 

Ok. Fair enough. Im not buying that out at 7 days though. But that’s just me. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, weathafella said:

Even this thread which is about Saturday night goes to shit.  I used to post among the most frequent.  These unreadable threads have made it much less fun.

Too optimistic vs too pessimistic.

Glass half full vs glass half empty.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Skynet continues to look pretty bonerific for the next two weeks.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Skynet continues to look pretty bonerific for the next two weeks.

Yes…a good stretch is in the offing. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

PLEASE don't get him started!

Hey I’ve always pushed back when people claim big ice storms and the look isn’t there…but I’m pointing out that there was a bit of a look there with a high in Quebec and a mesolow oriented more NE to SW instead of the more typical ENE/WSW which produces a more in-situ icing…if you’re pointed more NE with a high in Quebec then you have active advection of lower dewpoints. 
 

But as mentioned, it was clown range so not worth going crazy at this time…but that’s what you’re looking for on future solutions if you are looking for prolonged icing. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So a week out in time…and you think what’s shown today, that’s gonna be the final outcome?   This is comical. 

Remember, the window for a rainstorm is much larger than for a snowstorm.

I think what many here do is use the lead time as a bargaining chip. X event is 7 days a way, it can change, etc etc. with the assumption that these changes will always be positive.

Im being realistic, and folks don’t like to hear it, to put it bluntly. Scott knows what he’s talking about, and has been cautioning a mess for a while now.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Remember, the window for a rainstorm is much larger than for a snowstorm.

I think what many here do is use the lead time as a bargaining chip. X event is 7 days a way, it can change, etc etc. with the assumption that these changes will always be positive.

Im being realistic, and folks don’t like to hear it, to put it bluntly. Scott knows what he’s talking about, and has been cautioning a mess for a while now.

Nope…not at a week out. No bargaining chips here.  You have a massive -NAO, and a potent high in a good spot on modeling…it will press. We’ll see where we are next Friday.   

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Remember, the window for a rainstorm is much larger than for a snowstorm.

I think what many here do is use the lead time as a bargaining chip. X event is 7 days a way, it can change, etc etc. with the assumption that these changes will always be positive.

Im being realistic, and folks don’t like to hear it, to put it bluntly. Scott knows what he’s talking about, and has been cautioning a mess for a while now.

I don’t think this is bad reasoning at all by you here…the problem is you can’t really be the messenger for it because you burnt your credibility already by being the forum Debbie-downer even when things looked great in the past. So people will see you being a Debbie and just roll their eyes…”he’s at it again”.

 There are both positive and negative variables for next Thursday…the positive is we have a solid high anchored north of CAR as the storm approaches which may provide some resistance (esp as we get closer on modeling this tends to be the case). The negative is the track of the primary low…and the million dollar question is how fast do we get redevelopment. 

 

 

 

 

[SJonesWX]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hey I’ve always pushed back when people claim big ice storms and the look isn’t there…but I’m pointing out that there was a bit of a look there with a high in Quebec and a mesolow oriented more NE to SW instead of the more typical ENE/WSW which produces a more in-situ icing…if you’re pointed more NE with a high in Quebec then you have active advection of lower dewpoints. 
 

But as mentioned, it was clown range so not worth going crazy at this time…but that’s what you’re looking for on future solutions if you are looking for prolonged icing. 

somewhere in Tolland the morning Wood is rising

[CoastalWx]

Given how my three-quarter inch of crud from yesterday did with overnight temps hovering near freezing and temps well above freezing with sun today, I would absolutely entertain some rain and mix into the pack to make it meaty. I just don’t want 2 inches of snow followed by an inch and a half of rain and temps in the 50s lol.

[Snowcrazed71]

18 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Skynet continues to look pretty bonerific for the next two weeks.

So is skynet the new Euro AI? And is it really that reliable. From what I'm seeing And hearing it seems to be. 

[DavisStraight]

25 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Skynet continues to look pretty bonerific for the next two weeks.

Looks great, hope its dead on.

[CoastalWx]

I will say even beyond the ensembles it looks good. So we’re gonna definitely have chances, I wasn’t trying to be negative earlier. I was just entertaining the idea that we could have some not so favorable set ups… But whatever I guess we just enjoy what comes.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say even beyond the ensembles it looks good. So we’re gonna definitely have chances, I wasn’t trying to be negative earlier. I was just entertaining the idea that we could have some not so favorable set ups… But whatever I guess we just enjoy what comes.

3/5 solid snowfall. 1/5 snow to solid ice 1/5 snow to ice to rain. Lots of meat 

[WinterWolf]

It’s all good..let’s see what happens. As you pointed out earlier this week, not everything will hit, and you’re right…so I think most of us understand this.    Let’s  enjoy tracking and what seems to be the extended length of this good pattern.  

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3/5 solid snowfall. 1/5 snow to solid ice 1/5 snow to ice to rain. Lots of meat 

What are those numbers?

[JC-CT]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are those numbers?

odds?

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are those numbers?

5 systems progged

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think this is bad reasoning at all by you here…the problem is you can’t really be the messenger for it because you burnt your credibility already by being the forum Debbie-downer even when things looked great in the past. So people will see you being a Debbie and just roll their eyes…”he’s at it again”.

 There are both positive and negative variables for next Thursday…the positive is we have a solid high anchored north of CAR as the storm approaches which may provide some resistance (esp as we get closer on modeling this tends to be the case). The negative is the track of the primary low…and the million dollar question is how fast do we get redevelopment. 

 

 

 

 

You’ve mentioned that in the past and it’s stuck with me. Small window for a snowstorm, large window for a Rainer, because ultimately, nobody cares if it cuts over Albany or Detroit, same result.

The strong primary is essentially a nonstarter south of the pike outside of rare circumstances. I’d feel better up towards the pike and especially Ray North.

Im not sure why being pessimistic, especially the last 3 years, damages credibility, but blindly believing every threat will improve, does not. It goes both ways.

[Damage In Tolland]

Any storm threats Feb 17-19 showing up?

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are those numbers?

Percentage of the poop covered?

[Torch Tiger]

[George001]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You’ve mentioned that in the past and it’s stuck with me. Small window for a snowstorm, large window for a Rainer, because ultimately, nobody cares if it cuts over Albany or Detroit, same result.

The strong primary is essentially a nonstarter south of the pike outside of rare circumstances. I’d feel better up towards the pike and especially Ray North.

Im not sure why being pessimistic, especially the last 3 years, damages credibility, but blindly believing every threat will improve, does not. It goes both ways.

I agree that we aren’t completely avoiding the taint late next week, a more northern track makes sense given the SE ridging but I am skeptical of a true cutter where we warm sector and get 60 degree flooding rains. It’s probably going to get icy.

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You’ve mentioned that in the past and it’s stuck with me. Small window for a snowstorm, large window for a Rainer, because ultimately, nobody cares if it cuts over Albany or Detroit, same result.

The strong primary is essentially a nonstarter south of the pike outside of rare circumstances. I’d feel better up towards the pike and especially Ray North.

Im not sure why being pessimistic, especially the last 3 years, damages credibility, but blindly believing every threat will improve, does not. It goes both ways.

Just curious where you had gotten the information we're having a cutter? I've heard that we might be getting more of a mix in some of the storms later next week, but no one said anything about a cutter. Maybe I'm just not hearing or seeing what you're hearing or seeing. Can you elaborate please

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You’ve mentioned that in the past and it’s stuck with me. Small window for a snowstorm, large window for a Rainer, because ultimately, nobody cares if it cuts over Albany or Detroit, same result.

The strong primary is essentially a nonstarter south of the pike outside of rare circumstances. I’d feel better up towards the pike and especially Ray North.

Im not sure why being pessimistic, especially the last 3 years, damages credibility, but blindly believing every threat will improve, does not. It goes both ways.

I think if you started being pessimistic only in the last 3 years then your credibility would be almost totally intact. But let’s be real, you started it long before, lol. 
 

But correct on the rainers…much wider area for rainers to “verify” versus snowers or whiffs. 
 

I think it’s good to point out the risks but we should point out the upside too…when it’s there of course. This pattern does have considerable upside but there are plenty of risks. We’re playing right along the gradient and that is always inherently a high risk/high reward spot to be.
 

The last 2.5 winters have had a lot of bad longwave patterns with also some bad breaks on top of it when we did get a favorable look. So yeah, it’s easy to assume we’re going to get the bad breaks again. We did get a lot of good breaks during our snow blitz years…these things do have a way of evening out over time. 
 

Hooefully we catch a couple good breaks this next week or two. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Too optimistic vs too pessimistic.

Glass half full vs glass half empty.

An engineer would say the glass is twice as big as needed.  

No biggies here since early Dec (9.3") but lots of interesting things to ponder.  Sure beats the 50 days of (mostly) boredom following that storm.

[SouthCoastMA]

Color me optimistic, but I think the storms later next week/weekend trend to a colder front end with net gains in SNE. Not saying they won't be messy though. I expect there to be some inland runners despite some snow ahead of the warm front. 

[MJO812]

Weeklies

[Snowcrazed71]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies

So they're still looking good and That's that's a good sign. I'm excited no matter what happens. Even if it's not all snow and all the storms. Even if they're mixed, it's still fun to see them Wintry.