February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[ma blizzard]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s clown range but if you get closer-in and still see the orientation of that mesolow out near Cape Cod and BOS facing northeast like that instead of ENE…red flag for big icing in interior. 

Looking at the weekend setup - kind of odd sig ice setup with such an intense low passing to the west? 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Doesn’t that imply large storm 18-19th?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Doesn’t that imply large storm 18-18th?

Possible yes but EPS still looks amazing just have to get through the transition cutters potentially the 13-17th..  classic KU pattern post the 17th 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

No but EPS still looks amazing just have to get through the transition cutters potentially the 13-17th..  classic KU pattern post the 17th 

I noticed the NAO starts to rise on the 17th or so and was thinking that could be an indicator of a storm in the 18th or 19th

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I noticed the NAO starts to rise on the 17th or so and was thinking that could be an indicator of a storm in the 18th or 19th

Ya, also noticing a strong PNA rise which would imply an Archembault event possible on that time frame

[Hazey]

The correction vector for these last few storms has been east(including the superbowl s/w). I wouldn't sweat 10 day details. One system at a time.

[Snowcrazed71]

41 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

If we're not going to ice... might as well watch you melt while your pack melts. 

Damn Ryan, I didn't know how ruthless you really are. .lol

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I noticed the NAO starts to rise on the 17th or so and was thinking that could be an indicator of a storm in the 18th or 19th

What does WPC say about it?

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya, also noticing a strong PNA rise which would imply an Archembault event possible on that time frame

I could be very, very naive but I have a hard time buying areal warm double cutter.  Maybe front end snow changes to sleet ends as rain and dry slot.  I don’t buy a wholesale change to what we’ve been seeing for several days while we have a -nao.  Granted it might be dicier down by you than upvhere

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Signal for next weekend is wild at this range 

[Prismshine Productions]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

even a third of this would be fun

half inch of ZR on top of snow would make cement...

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What does WPC say about it?

Iggles by 6-12,with lollies for everyone 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Signal for next weekend is wild at this range 

That’s not a cutter

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

That’s not a cutter

Hopefully the block does its work and it redevelops south of Long Island … 

[Prismshine Productions]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya, also noticing a strong PNA rise which would imply an Archembault event possible on that time frame

what is an Archembault Event? (still learning the forum lingo)

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

what is an Archembault Event? (still learning the forum lingo)

Short and simple is when multiple teleconnections (NAO and PNA in this case) go from positive to negative and vice versa large precipitation event often results for the North East. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

what is an Archembault Event? (still learning the forum lingo)

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hopefully the block does its work and it redevelops south of Long Island … 

It will. And we aren’t looking for unicorns by saying that. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, tunafish said:

https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=Archembault+Event

lol... good luck finding it with that method...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It was all downhill from yesterday. Recent runs much more realistic, especially for SNE.

Have to hope that Tuesday deal comes back because Thursday Friday looks no good for SNE

[HoarfrostHubb]

For those curious:

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/papers/Archambault_et_al_2008.pdf

[DJln491]

the only way to bring the Tues system north is to start a thread

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

the only way to bring the Tues system north is to start a thread

Do it! 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Do it! 

Definitely someone from CT or RI should start it.

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

what is an Archembault Event? (still learning the forum lingo)

Simple, HECS

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It was all downhill from yesterday. Recent runs much more realistic, especially for SNE.

Have to hope that Tuesday deal comes back because Thursday Friday looks no good for SNE

So a week out in time…and you think what’s shown today, that’s gonna be the final outcome?   This is comical. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So a week out in time…and you think what’s shown today, that’s gonna be the final outcome?   This is comical. 

The problem is Tuesday is influenced by tomorrow's event somewhat and most definitely next Friday is influenced by Tuesday.  I still think Tuesday is a south coast event on southward, but I don't feel its gonna be lost completely to PHL-DCA like last month's system.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So a week out in time…and you think what’s shown today, that’s gonna be the final outcome?   This is comical. 

No it certainly may not be,  but to me that looks like the more likely outcome. Trust me I’m all set with pics of nude skiers in quads or pics of teethless French women riding skidoos in East Moosescrotum Maine. I hope it’s more region wide, but be prepared for those visions above. 

[Snowcrazed71]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It was all downhill from yesterday. Recent runs much more realistic, especially for SNE.

Have to hope that Tuesday deal comes back because Thursday Friday looks no good for SNE

You're funny man. When the models show something that is not what we're hoping for.. you jump on it and try to shove the point that everything's falling apart ( And of course there's always a chance that it goes that way ), however, if it's showing something real positive, you kind of just go "  well maybe but probably not ". So...which is it? 

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So a week out in time…and you think what’s shown today, that’s gonna be the final outcome?   This is comical. 

I couldn't agree more, But of course we're grouped in this camp like we're some sort of rose-colored glasses, kind of people. I have to laugh at those comments. I know exactly what he's doing. He does not want to get his own hopes up so his way of coping with it is to put the negative spin on it. That way if things do go south, he'll tell everyone, I told you so.