February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

My 10 day Wunderground forecast for next week just keeps jumping around; now Wednesday it’s up to 7.4.  But next weekend is now at 11.

You actually still use a weather app?

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

You actually still use a weather app?

I just see it as one piece of data that I drag overtime. To have 22 inches of snow from Sunday to Sunday on underground app is extremely unusual. If not unprecedented for me.

[UnitedWx]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You heard it here first. 

Well it certainly could be true, but NO need to poop in the party dip just yet

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I just see it as one piece of data that I drag overtime. To have 22 inches of snow from Sunday to Sunday on underground app is extremely unusual. If not unprecedented for me.

I get it. I still have the FuccuWeather app on my phone, really just for the super crappy radar

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hey listen, I had my melt about 2 weeks ago. I get what you're saying, and there was always that possibility that things could go the other way. There's no way to know for sure. But there's still a lot of positive signs for snow and storms. What form they take, yes that might be up in the air a bit. Point is, you went from being very optimistic to totally pessimistic. Just makes you look like you're losing your mind. 

Take a break like I did for a day. It helped

I look every day and talk about whatever I see. We all know the upside, let’s talk about why people shouldn’t be slapping dongs together and have them wrap around each other like a pretzel.

[ineedsnow]

Another burst of snow coming through

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Another burst of snow coming through

There's a lot of snow showers out there, mostly in your area north. One thing I like about living on the Maine coast, they get ocean effect snow showers now and then, doesn't really add up just like when it snows.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

some of these short waves are digging pretty far down and then bouncing north due to the southeast ridge. I can totally see some of those depictions. Are they correct? I don’t know, but completely realistic imo. We’ve had all types of scenarios last few years when everyone was claiming this or that will save us only to find a way for these waves to dig into the plains and create messy scenarios. 
 

Also, these air masses are not arctic. Low 30s for highs with sun? Only thing saving us is high pressure trying to anchor in.

I'm just citing what the numerical teleconnectors are correlating as of recent days.   The -PNA underpinning with a strongly negative NAO over the western limb, does not permit ( typically ) low positions moving through the Lakes.  

But I suspect you're just being euphemistic   lol S/W don't bounce of ridges ... ? 

They are either absorbing into the flow by destructive interference, or being emphasized by the flow due to constructive interference.  This behavior is manifest by S/W attenuation, such as moving the wave space through a compressed medium ( for example...).   Conversely, it may look like a ping ponging but what's really taking place is the S/W is taking pathway that is constructive interfering wrt to where the L/W axis really is anchored.  And this can all be partial too - which becomes a head game of how much so...

I've seen weird interference patterns where the models look to attempt to send S/W against the larger wave space mechanical layout, but where that usually morphs/corrects is the old squeeze play.  Low moves up Michigan and slams to a halt and starts vomiting smaller waves along the east extension, and/or if the primary is BUF ... a Miller B is an option.  

This is all idealized too - I'm sure there are anomalies relative to anomalies, couched in yet bigger anomalies like a Russian Nesting doll of misfortune, too.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm just citing what the numerical teleconnectors are correlating as of recent days.   The -PNA underpinning with a strongly negative NAO over the western limb, does not permit ( typically ) low positions moving through the Lakes.  

But I suspect you're just being euphemistic   lol S/W don't bounce of ridges ... ? 

They are either absorbing into the flow by destructive interference, or being emphasized by the flow due to constructive interference.  This behavior is manifest by S/W attenuation, such moving the wave space through a compressed medium ( for example...).   Conversely, it may look like a ping ponging but what's really taking place is the S/W is taking pathway that is constructive interfering wrt to where the L/W axis really is anchored.  

I've seen weird interference patterns where the models look to attempt to send S/W against the larger wave space mechanical layout, but where that usually morphs/corrects is the old squeeze play.  Low moves up Michigan and slams to a halt and starts vomiting smaller waves along the east extension, and/or if the primary is BUF ... a Miller B is an option.  

This is all idealized too - I'm sure there are anomalies relative to anomalies, couched in yet bigger anomalies like a Russian Nesting doll of misfortune, too.  

I’m thinking more of messy systems potential. That is easily supported and I expect at least one or two of those over the next 15 days. Call me crazy for not buying 40” of snow in two weeks. 

[powderfreak]

Some awesome squalls this morning so far.

+SN and gusts to 40mph at the ASOS.

Looks like MPV did 48mph.

Rolling whiteouts.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m thinking more of messy systems potential. That is easily supported and I expect at least one or two of those over the next 15 days. Call me crazy for not buying 40” of snow in two weeks. 

Oh shit I'm never disagreeing with that in a CC canvas attempting to usurp a fantastic winter stretch:  the collateral damage of that epic war is probably messy systems ... just in principle.

Also a manifestation of the war is the compression that seems to be predominating every base line/winter hemisphere since the 2000s, too - but that's going down rabbit hole.

[NorEastermass128]

RTO begins this Monday. What a week shaping up to be hitting the roads to commute again. 

[mahk_webstah]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I look every day and talk about whatever I see. We all know the upside, let’s talk about why people shouldn’t be slapping dongs together and have them wrap around each other like a pretzel.

You wanna slap dongs so bad…

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You wanna slap dongs so bad…

On a nice hard pack 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m thinking more of messy systems potential. That is easily supported and I expect at least one or two of those over the next 15 days. Call me crazy for not buying 40” of snow in two weeks. 

We get it, Nobody thinks you’re crazy. But Nobody is saying anybody is buying 40” in two weeks.  But stop conflating and deflecting.  Your tude this morning was horrible..and all this “Good Luck with that” bullshit.  And “You heard it here first” crap…WTF?  
 

An Op run of the Euro shows a cutter at day 9–10 and you’re off the cuff like a mental patient.  The Op Euro has been a disaster lately. But sure, it could happen.  But experience says that will probably change too. 
 

Modeling/ensembles still looks great…Op runs gonna oscillate.  And not all will be hits for us, we do understand that.  

Moving on..

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We get it, Nobody thinks you’re crazy. But Nobody is saying anybody is buying 40” in two weeks.  But stop conflating and deflecting.  Your tude this morning was horrible..and all this “Good Luck with that” bullshit.  And “You heard it here first” crap…WTF?  
 

An Op run of the Euro shows a cutter at day 9–10 and you’re off the cuff like a mental patient.  The Op Euro has been a disaster lately. But sure, it could happen.  But experience says that will probably change too. 
 

Modeling/ensembles still looks great…Op runs gonna oscillate.  And not all will be hits for us, we do understand that.  

Moving on..

The ensembles show messiness too. Why is that hard to understand and entertain. It’s totally reasonable and much more realistic than those runs yesterday. 

[TheMainer]

Snow squall ripping good, less than 1/8th mile visibility as I start my drive to Houlton for a closing

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s nothing that misses. Tuesday is still on much ensemble guidance . We need Will in here to bring back some sense of reality 

I think Tuesday is very meh NOP   Could be good for you folks though

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The ensembles show messiness too. Why is that hard to understand and entertain. It’s totally reasonable and much more realistic than those runs yesterday. 

We entertain just fine…you were shitting everywhere earlier. And don’t say you weren’t.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

We entertain just fine…you were shitting everywhere earlier. And don’t say you weren’t.  

Just pointing out what could be reality. But if you wanna live in fantasyland, you guys all go ahead.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think Tuesday is very meh NOP   Could be good for you folks though

It’ll creep north some most likely. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just pointing out what could be reality. But if you wanna live in fantasyland, you guys all go ahead.

Nobody is living in fantasy land…we do understand what you meant. but you were melting..everybody saw it. You fragile. You frail. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Nobody is living in fantasy land…we do understand what you meant. but you were melting..everybody saw it. You fragile. You frail. 

Totally lost him.

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some awesome squalls this morning so far.

+SN and gusts to 40mph at the ASOS.

Looks like MPV did 48mph.

Rolling whiteouts.

Windsexy day

[dendrite]

Heavy squall in CON right now 

[weatherwiz]

Getting a cute little snow flurry right now

[Lava Rock]

Some awesome squalls this morning so far.
+SN and gusts to 40mph at the ASOS.
Looks like MPV did 48mph.
Rolling whiteouts.

Same here at SR. Lots of lift holds. Not sure we'll get the ski day in. See if we can switch tix to tomorrow

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Modfan2]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Windsexy day

Seems to be the norm of the season

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This isn’t Kevin behavior. Just interpreting guidance. Why can’t someone raise concern? It’s not like I’m torch tiger pointing out a trough in the plains on the 384 hr gfs op. 

run after run. I'd bet against a full-on hugger/cutter pattern, but not at all ruling out something less than the promised epicosity most latched onto

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Epic melt mere days prior to the 2015 snow blitz…shall history repeat itself a decade later? 

No.