February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

So much for an early spring.

By mid Feb it’s almost spring anyways. 

[Kitz Craver]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

By mid Feb it’s almost spring anyways. 

Tippy nape season

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm on the fence with all this

 

 

 

 

 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s favored for now, we just hope it changes, we are due… eventually it will break. 

Took a stroll through the casino yesterday and that was the same sentiment I heard from the folks crying as they sat in front of the slots!!! Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

I see a significant transition gate, going through timed for the 2nd.   That was originally progged as a potential winter storm, 4 or so days ago, but has since morphed into what looks now like a symbolic, if not turning into a literal, warm front.

It appears now as though whatever that is, it's first of all lifting too far NW  - that's in conjunction with the SE ridge becoming more robust in recent guidance trends...  It's bullying in these operational guidance so fast that the ambient polar boundary is immediately reassigned to the ST Law to IND type axis.   It's like in principle it is acting more like a warm front.  It goes by, and there's zip cold and a west wind under +6 850 mb ...  appears to be a big thaw - or at least significant one.  

So those days between the 2nd and say the 8th... That could even heat burst if the ridge gets any more dominating. 

For now, there's some uncertainty about the EPO in that week.  The models are trying to reassert really fast - not sure on that.

[mahk_webstah]

Do we not still have the possibility of a well-timed scooter high during early February?

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll tell you though .. .spring is sprung in the deep south though.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'll tell you though .. .spring is sprung in the deep south though.

Cherry blossoms early this year? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I see a significant transition gate, going through timed for the 2nd.   That was originally progged as a potential winter storm, 4 or so days ago, but has since morphed into what looks now like a symbolic, if not turning into a literal, warm front.

It appears now as though whatever that is, it's first of all lifting too far NW  - that's in conjunction with the SE ridge becoming more robust in recent guidance trends...  It's bullying in these operational guidance so fast that the ambient polar boundary is immediately reassigned to the ST Law to IND type axis.   It's like in principle it is acting more like a warm front.  It goes by, and there's zip cold and a west wind under +6 850 mb ...  appears to be a big thaw - or at least significant one.  

So those days between the 2nd and say the 8th... That could even heat burst if the ridge gets any more dominating. 

For now, there's some uncertainty about the EPO in that week.  The models are trying to reassert really fast - not sure on that.

A lot of high pressure in Canada, going to be a battle.  12z guidance today has an icy look for New England / just depends what side we are on, could be 70 in Jersey while we ice , or just torch up to CNE.. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree Feb 1-5 or so.. then after that we should reshuffle, wonder if we can get a well timed high for a wintry mix at least instead of all rain in that Feb 1-5 timeframe 

Euro tries for front end on that one. 

[snowman19]

By mid Feb it’s almost spring anyways. 

If Paul Roundy is right about the tropical forcing progression, this happens at mid-February and we don’t go into deep winter again like Ryan Kane is saying:

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If Paul Roundy is right about the tropical forcing progression, this happens at mid-February and we don’t go into deep winter again like Ryan Kane is saying:

 

 

 

 

He will be wrong. It isnt going to be a long lasting warmup.  Same people been saying warmth and that hasn't verified so far.

[Typhoon Tip]

57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Cherry blossoms early this year? 

No idea ... but TX across the snow storm region look to balloon into seasonal change in the first week of Feb.  Some of those place that got the snow may be nearing 80

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He will be wrong. It isnt going to be a long lasting warmup.  Same people been saying warmth and that hasn't verified so far.

Just a very deep winter that may never end. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

EPS with wintry vibe for the 2nd , high pressure in SE Canada as the overrrunning moves in . 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS with wintry vibe for the 2nd , high pressure in SE Canada as the overrrunning moves in . 

Screams damaging ice storm 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Do we not still have the possibility of a well-timed scooter high during early February?

I don’t want it, but you know how it goes. They can tap out all they want down there, but it can flip like a switch up here even in March (like last year). 

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t want it, but you know how it goes. They can tap out all they want down there, but it can flip like a switch up here even in March (like last year). 

I don’t want it in March, but I do want it in February. They swing back-and-forth between hopeful and excited and depressed as if it will never snow again. I guess I think it’s probably gonna snow a decent amount in February, at least that’s the odds. And there’s lots of cold air around.

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS with wintry vibe for the 2nd , high pressure in SE Canada as the overrrunning moves in . 

Very ironic that it’s a scooter high

[Baroclinic Zone]

Not much excitement weather wise. Maybe a clipper middle of next week.could be a classic fluffer with the cold.

Sitting at ~11’ on the season.

Dec 5th - 2”

Dec 20th - 5”

 

Jan 19th - 5”

https://share.icloud.com/photos/0e2NoQ-JyaYNyJG5dWDOC-O0w
 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not much excitement weather wise. Maybe a clipper middle of next week.could be a classic fluffer with the cold.

Sitting at ~11’ on the season.

Dec 5th - 2”

Dec 20th - 5”

 

Jan 19th - 5”

https://share.icloud.com/photos/0e2NoQ-JyaYNyJG5dWDOC-O0w
 

 

What storms did the other 10 feet come from this season? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What storms did the other 10 feet come from this season? 

Vivid dreams of storms past.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Vivid dreams of storms past.

Glad you’re back man. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Glad you’re back man. 

Thanks 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully we get a good ice storm, been a while and it certainly isn't snowing anytime soon

[Baroclinic Zone]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks 

[Baroclinic Zone]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Glad you’re back man. 

Thanks.

Was an organic reintroduction. Been through a lot since early 2022. 

[DavisStraight]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully we get a good ice storm, been a while and it certainly isn't snowing anytime soon

I guess anything frozen will be better than nothing.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully we get a good ice storm, been a while and it certainly isn't snowing anytime soon

This 18z GFS was suggestive out there    

Somewhat of colder run.  Front’s south of prior.  Has it parked below with several waves running along it Feb 4 thru 6 … skimpy on QPF but the generalized overview is all that matters at this range. 

it’s just one run tho.  Been meandering that frontal position every run. 

In a way … icing scenarios are the ultimate needle thread. Unless it’s something truly rare and awesome like 1998 - very large area. This one would be narrow 

[Sn0waddict]

Imagine?