February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[WinterWolf]

He did this early in the week until Will told him otherwise. 

[Modfan2]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s nothing that misses. Tuesday is still on much ensemble guidance . We need Will in here to bring back some sense of reality 

I’m not sure his is talking about these whiffing; just potential P-Type issues to watch for.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

I’m not sure his is talking about these whiffing; just potential P-Type issues to watch for.

Blocking and cold can press too…I’m not sold on the whole mix either.  Lots of time to have these move around…gotta be patient and see as we close in on each potential. 

[Torch Tiger]

we just don't know

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He did this early in the week until Will told him otherwise. 

My issue is these messy systems and I’m not BSing. It’s a pattern that can totally support that.  Good luck if Tuesday whiffs.

[DavisStraight]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What a friek Scott has turned into…guy is completely shot.  Ya hate to see it.  Crying about something a week out.  Please take a break.  Not every threat is gonna hit…didn’t he tell us that.  What a melt…

Usually when Scott melts its a good sign for something big coming.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Usually when Scott melts its a good sign for something big coming.

Epic melt mere days prior to the 2015 snow blitz…shall history repeat itself a decade later? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My issue is these messy systems and I’m not BSing. It’s a pattern that can totally support that.  Good luck if Tuesday whiffs.

Definitely. We layed that out. Peeps need to keep expectations in check. 
 

That said.. you and Don need an ayahuasca retreat. 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Epic melt mere days prior to the 2015 snow blitz…shall history repeat itself a decade later? 

That's what I was thinking of specifically.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Usually when Scott melts it’s a good sign for something big coming.

3 years of melts have led to an accumulation of 40” of snow during that time. Just saying. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

That's what I was thinking of specifically.

It all started with Jan 15 bomb and the “Aint happening James” and “I’ll give you my red tag”…which he never gave up btw. 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

3 years of melts have led to an accumulation of 40” of snow during that time. Just saying. 

I just updated my snowfall tally in the other thread. I feel like we’re now in the throes of a KU winter. My current total?  18” to date. 

[alex]

Crazy whiteout this morning. Stake up to 17”

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I def see Scotts concern south and east of 84 over the next 2 weeks.. But we have 2 cold storms before that (hopefully Tuesday PM for SNE). And then hopefully the blocking and cold press can do work and push enough to keep all of us from seeing rain later next week and beyond.  As long as we don't cut to buffalo and rain its all good.  Lets just keep the pack that we gain starting tomorrow.  I think this is at least a very good stretch of snow, will it be epic? We just don't know yet, but the opportunity is there, GEFS 6z, and EPS 00z still look amazing, the op runs will fluctuate until we get closer. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I def see Scotts concern south and east of 84 over the next 2 weeks.. But we have 2 cold storms before that (hopefully Tuesday PM for SNE). And then hopefully the blocking and cold press can do work and push enough to keep all of us from seeing rain later next week and beyond.  As long as we don't cut to buffalo and rain its all good.  Lets just keep the pack that we gain starting tomorrow.  I think this is at least a very good stretch of snow, will it be epic? We just don't know yet, but the opportunity is there, GEFS 6z, and EPS 00z still look amazing, the op runs will fluctuate until we get closer. 

That’s all it is a concern. I didn’t cancel anything, but people need to keep things in check.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I def see Scotts concern south and east of 84 over the next 2 weeks.. But we have 2 cold storms before that (hopefully Tuesday PM for SNE). And then hopefully the blocking and cold press can do work and push enough to keep all of us from seeing rain later next week and beyond.  As long as we don't cut to buffalo and rain it’s all good.  Let’s just keep the pack that we gain starting tomorrow.  I think this is at least a very good stretch of snow, will it be epic? We just don't know yet, but the opportunity is there.. 

The Thursday system has a pretty good high anchored N of CAR so even if that tries to amp, I’d think decent front ender. The 00z OP euro was on the northwest edge of the ensemble envelope…it’s possible it’s correct but there’s plenty of huge hits in the ensemble suite. This type of pattern will produce the threat of some messier systems. Even during the barrage of 1994 we had two…MLK weekend storm was messy and the 1/28 storm was basically a full cutter. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s all it is a concern. I didn’t cancel anything, but people need to keep things in check.

[Lava Rock]

Ripping 1"+ rates at SR

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Thursday system has a pretty good high anchored N of CAR so even if that tries to amp, I’d think decent front ender. The 00z OP euro was on the northwest edge of the ensemble envelope…it’s possible it’s correct but there’s plenty of huge hits in the ensemble suite. This type of pattern will produce the threat of some messier systems. Even during the barrage of 1994 we had two…MLK weekend storm was messy and the 1/28 storm was basically a full cutter. 

GEFS, EPS, SKYNET look amazing

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Epic melt mere days prior to the 2015 snow blitz…shall history repeat itself a decade later? 

Scoots lost it this morning . This was one of his worst ones. Hopefully the next few weeks snows help 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Can already see the cutters trying on the euro. 

 

EPS too. Oh well.

I suspect that is in error...  I think we're talking about the bigger event the 15-17th?  

The numerical derivatives don't correlate very well to early left turning.  In fact ... they are opposite.   That source implies an east, and by virtue of that also means somewhat south, correction in time.   

That may not be the case ...it's not a declaration. I wouldn't be surprised.    

Beyond that, I also think the 13th is a "trap game" storm.   It may become that there is a bigger dawg on the 16 or so that's too tempting to captivate the audience, while the 13th sneaks in as a player.  Before the big dawg's in Jan and Feb 1978 there was a 1000 mb low up the coast with 19" at Logan in 24 hours. This is interesting because it is more of a Miller A origin, as is suggested coherently in all 3 ens systems... By virtue of that, it will have access to a better moisture source - that is reflected already in the 24-hrly QPF means > .75" even from 160 hour lead - that's a pretty wet signal to be moving headlong into an antecedent air mass that still gripped by 1030 mb polar-arctic PP, N of our latitude when that one arrives. 13th becomes a candidate for over-achieving relative to climo low strength if these synoptics formulate in kind.   This paragraph could be the thread opener on that imho - but in deference to the weekend gig ... 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Thursday system has a pretty good high anchored N of CAR so even if that tries to amp, I’d think decent front ender. The 00z OP euro was on the northwest edge of the ensemble envelope…it’s possible it’s correct but there’s plenty of huge hits in the ensemble suite. This type of pattern will produce the threat of some messier systems. Even during the barrage of 1994 we had two…MLK weekend storm was messy and the 1/28 storm was basically a full cutter. 

Reminder when yesterday was modeled by the Euro to be 65-70 as late as last weekend ? Instead it snowed and iced 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scoots lost it this morning . This was one of his worst ones. Hopefully the next few weeks snows help 

I am the caution king for a reason. Let’s hope it’s not as messy. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I am the caution king for a reason. Let’s hope it’s not as messy. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suspect that is in error...  I think we're talking about the bigger event the 15-17th?  

The numerical derivatives don't correlate very well to early left turning.  In fact ... they are opposite.   That source implies an east, and by virtue of that also means somewhat south, correction in time.   

That may not be the case ...it's not a declaration. I wouldn't be surprised.    

Beyond that, I also think the 13th is a "trap game" storm.   It may become that there is a bigger dawg on the 16 or so that's too tempting to captivate the audience, while the 13th sneaks in as a player.  Before the big dawg's in Jan and Feb 1978 there was a 1000 mb low up the coast with 19" at Logan in 24 hours. This is interesting because it is more of a Miller A origin, as is suggested coherently in all 3 ens systems... By virtue of that, it will have access to a better moisture source - that is reflected already in the 24-hrly QPF means > .75" even from 160 hour lead - that's a pretty wet. The antecedent air mass is still gripped by 1030 mb polar-arctic PP, N of our latitude when that one arrives, 13th becomes a candidate for over-achieving relative to climo low strength.   This paragraph could be the thread opener on that imho - but in deference to the weekend gig ... 

some of these short waves are digging pretty far down and then bouncing north due to the southeast ridge. I can totally see some of those depictions. Are they correct? I don’t know, but completely realistic imo. We’ve had all types of scenarios last few years when everyone was claiming this or that will save us only to find a way for these waves to dig into the plains and create messy scenarios. 
 

Also, these air masses are not arctic. Low 30s for highs with sun? Only thing saving us is high pressure trying to anchor in.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I am the caution king for a reason. Let’s hope it’s not as messy. 

I’ve noticed something. When people get excited or what you may think is too much weenie, you like to temper that excitement and make things non hype and more mundane . It’s a pattern . It’s just what you do . Which is fine since we understand it 

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Thursday system has a pretty good high anchored N of CAR so even if that tries to amp, I’d think decent front ender. The 00z OP euro was on the northwest edge of the ensemble envelope…it’s possible it’s correct but there’s plenty of huge hits in the ensemble suite. This type of pattern will produce the threat of some messier systems. Even during the barrage of 1994 we had two…MLK weekend storm was messy and the 1/28 storm was basically a full cutter. 

In my view, you want a messy system or two thrown in to make the pack meatier. Also increases the chances you can walk on the pack instead of sinking into it every time you go outside.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve noticed something. When people get excited or what you may think is too much weenie, you like to temper that excitement and make things non hype and more mundane . It’s a pattern . It’s just what you do . Which is fine since we understand it 

This isn’t Kevin behavior. Just interpreting guidance. Why can’t someone raise concern? It’s not like I’m torch tiger pointing out a trough in the plains on the 384 hr gfs op. 

[Snowcrazed71]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3 years of melts have led to an accumulation of 40” of snow during that time. Just saying. 

Hey listen, I had my melt about 2 weeks ago. I get what you're saying, and there was always that possibility that things could go the other way. There's no way to know for sure. But there's still a lot of positive signs for snow and storms. What form they take, yes that might be up in the air a bit. Point is, you went from being very optimistic to totally pessimistic. Just makes you look like you're losing your mind. 

Take a break like I did for a day. It helped

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This isn’t Kevin behavior. Just interpreting guidance. Why can’t someone raise concern? It’s not like I’m torch tiger pointing out a trough in the plains on the 384 hr gfs op. 

You can certainly point out whatever you’d like. I’m not saying that . Just making an observation.