February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[CoastalWx]

00z will be a cutter 

[DJln491]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For those about to rock. 
 

Fiyah!!!

weeeesalllutteeyouuuuu

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

00z will be a cutter 

what makes you say that?

[DJln491]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

what makes you say that?

reverse psychology.  Tempering his own expectations.   It's probably healthy for us all to do that, me however...I'm currently naked

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What an orgy of a stretch to have no wife or kids...just unadulterated, meteorological fellatio for over a month

Sometimes things just line up for a brother…

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

what makes you say that?

Scooter is on tilt. He’s pulling out the Kevin reverse psychology or getting taken to the woodshed so many times since 2022 has turned him into Tblizz.  Once he grabs 8-10 on the weekend he will be back to his normal self. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Anyone have the gif of everyone falling into the pit that MaineJayhawk created way back?

 

[CoastalWx]

FFS guys I’m kidding.  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

FFS guys I’m kidding.  

Lots of newer folks don’t know when you’re f’ing around…look at this morning when you said let’s whiff with the NAM, the whole place almost imploded. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What an orgy of a stretch to have no wife or kids...just unadulterated, meteorological fellatio for over a month

Ray having a romantic time with himself. Blanket sprawled out in front of the fireplace with laptop and notebooks, sharpies and pencils. Fresh popcorn and odouls sitting on the coffee table. TWC broadcasting in the background….A bottle of lotion and box of tissues easily within reach.

[Prismshine Productions]

10:1- 36"
Kuchie: 51"

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Storm of the season may be the 15-17th

[brooklynwx99]

for anybody worried about suppression like what happened in Jan after the 15th or so, this is a much more classic block caused by a retrograding Scandi ridge... it's where it should be over the northern Davis Strait rather than south of Greenland. this is why those retrograding Scandi highs are so favorable - the orientation of the block is better with the TPV elongated over SE Canada rather than the N ATL

[Spanks45]

Except for the one towards Valentine's Day, these aren't wrapped up blizzards needing some thread the needle capture. I feel like the odds of getting these storms are much greater than a pattern like that. It is just a matter of how much push from the north or the SE and where the heaviest precip ends up. So in other words this isn't some 1 in a million fantasy....written from a  perspective I guess

[cut]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Months and months , piles won’t melt til July 31st 

Tony Montana style!!!

[Typhoon Tip]

For ensemble mean consideration,  it is very rare to get a signal this coherent at this kind of time range…

this also has a positive PNA pulsation occurring in tandem 

[Typhoon Tip]

The next couple of frames after that have a clear tendency for bent cyclonic -PP with an extraordinary number of members below 970 mbar considering the range…

[Typhoon Tip]

all indicators included suggest for me that that is an important period to watch in that midmonth

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The next couple of frames after that have a clear tendency for bent cyclonic -PP with an extraordinary number of members below 970 mbar considering the range…

Amazing 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah.  That signal for Feb 16 is pretty strong

[The 4 Seasons]

The  run for the ages if anyone wants it

[Hoth]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone remember what kind of model outputs we were getting in Feb '15? I assume they were comparable at the least, but I just don't remember.

[mahk_webstah]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

all indicators included suggest for me that that is an important period to watch in that midmonth

Thread

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Just out of curiosity, does anyone remember what kind of model outputs we were getting in Feb '15? I assume they were comparable at the least, but I just don't remember.

Bigger storms, but spaced further apart maybe?

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

FFS guys I’m kidding.  

 

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The  run for the ages if anyone wants it

That is hilarious.  

[Typhoon Tip]

I hadn’t realized that …

was heads down at work save what time I spent was focused on the weekend 

But the 15-17th bomb on the GFS I consider a nod to the EPS ensemble. 

Btw, the GEFs have above normal coherence too, just 1/3rd of the coherence … which is still above normal for this range.its just that the EPS is exotic 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thread

Ha

if this were circa 2006 I would at Eastern, with title of ‘possible but above normally ‘ in a heart beat IF we didn’t have possibly two other thread able events after this weekends to consider first. 

 

 

[DavisStraight]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Bigger storms, but spaced further apart maybe?

They were on the models but some looked like they were going to miss us south or graze us and at the last minute they slammed us.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

They were on the models but some looked like they were going to miss us south or graze us and at the last minute they slammed us.

Many of them also overperformed...the 2/2 event looked like a typical 6-10 SWFE until the RGEM kept insisting on faster redevelopment and continuing the snow all afternoon and it turned into a 12-18" for many. The overrunning storm from Feb 7-9 didn't really materialize on guidance until pretty close in (maybe 5 days out or closer?)....and of course we all remember the mid-level magic storm on 2/15 that was kind of a disaster on models.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Many of them also overperformed...the 2/2 event looked like a typical 6-10 SWFE until the RGEM kept insisting on faster redevelopment and continuing the snow all afternoon and it turned into a 12-18" for many. The overrunning storm from Feb 7-9 didn't really materialize on guidance until pretty close in (maybe 5 days out or closer?)....and of course we all remember the mid-level magic storm on 2/15 that was kind of a disaster on models.

I definitely remember overperforming.