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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Early Feb 1994 and late Feb/early Mar 1960 are similar. The latter had a monster KU at the end of the pattern. I would say the pattern next week is most similar to 1994 with the SE ridge flexing, but it morphs more like 1960 in the week after that as the NAO/AO block really imposes its will.

 

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I noticed today many records being broken in the SE US were from 94, of course back then the SE Ridge was overpowered fast and most of those areas finished the month barely above normal in the end, they'll be way way above this time in a totally different climate, even if the final 8 days average below

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

@CoastalWx and @40/70 Benchmark, 50mb split complete by D5 now. Looks like a lock. Wonder if we can prolong the blocking longer than weeklies think due to this.

 

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Yea, this will rot well into March....toss guidance.

Family departs for Dubai tomorrow, and I don't join them until mid May, so I'm just going to camp out on the living room floor in my crotchless skipants with a 12 pack of Odouls

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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS misses with a real big one on the 15-17th potential...  Just moving the interaction timing a CH and we're correcting any perception of this winter in the absolute sense. 

Problem is ... the fast flow should really prevent the phase so ..it's like a baked in face smack limitation.   haha

You wonder how much more of this it will take for the masses to accept that things are changing....I mean, hellllooooo......there is a reason the gradient is so fast every waking moment...

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