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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We may never see an ensemble output like this again, it’s time to start cashing in on Saturday night though.  Then here’s the pattern at hr 360 lol 

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Yesterdays was crazy for a mean…this one is even more crazy lol.  And it’s on every ensemble mean of the varsity models.  
 

And ya, it’s just pretty colors right now…but the signal is absolutely immense…And has been getting even stronger.  Hard to ignore.   

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51 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Party like it's 2015. Ensemble means on the EPS/GEFS/GGEM are the highest ive ever seen, pretty wild.

I remember an MIT statistician worked out that ‘15 was a 1 in 16,000 year event in Boston. We can dream, but odds are it’s not happening. Still, we don’t have to hit that peak to be stoked about the look. Could finally be a very fun few weeks!

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It's definitely one of the most favorable patterns since 2015 (not that the bar has been set very high since that winter...maybe Mar 2018 would contend too)....but it's not really like 2015 itself. Different type of favorable pattern. 2015 was almost purely Pacific driven....it did have an occasional weak block in the Atlantic, but overall it was positive NAO. This is going to be a -NAO linking up with a -EPO ridge with a negative PNA and forming basically a north pole block.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's definitely one of the most favorable patterns since 2015 (not that the bar has been set very high since that winter...maybe Mar 2018 would contend too)....but it's not really like 2015 itself. Different type of favorable pattern. 2015 was almost purely Pacific driven....it did have an occasional weak block in the Atlantic, but overall it was positive NAO. This is going to be a -NAO linking up with a -EPO ridge with a negative PNA and forming basically a north pole block.

Buckle up grasshoppers 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's definitely one of the most favorable patterns since 2015 (not that the bar has been set very high since that winter...maybe Mar 2018 would contend too)....but it's not really like 2015 itself. Different type of favorable pattern. 2015 was almost purely Pacific driven....it did have an occasional weak block in the Atlantic, but overall it was positive NAO. This is going to be a -NAO linking up with a -EPO ridge with a negative PNA and forming basically a north pole block.

sounds exotic, any analogs for this particular kind of pattern?

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18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think we all know why…it’s absolutely ridiculous that he would choose an Op run from day 10-16 days out.  The sad part is he knows better…but just can’t help himself.  He’s exposed as an utter Troll. 

Blocking his dumb arse worked for me. Now I don't have to see his asinine comments anymore. :-)

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14 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

sounds exotic, any analogs for this particular kind of pattern?

Early Feb 1994 and late Feb/early Mar 1960 are similar. The latter had a monster KU at the end of the pattern. I would say the pattern next week is most similar to 1994 with the SE ridge flexing, but it morphs more like 1960 in the week after that as the NAO/AO block really imposes its will.

 

image.gif.54f94aa9c5b448e79294abec80daaea4.gif

 

image.gif.522d9f4b58d5857d3199cc4d5a4115df.gif

 

 

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