February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately not the precip we care about 

First few threat or two yes, after that it’s up in the air still 10-14 days away, after this coming week it doesn’t look dry, for now…

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking forward to more upslope pics from PF and ski journals from Jspin.

Yeah you know they want to talk smack, but so many would rage quit the board there would be no one left 

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m like the fat kid on stand by me at the pie eating contest. Watching all the weenies puke and I’m just sitting back smiling. 

Cousin Donnie tried to sound the alarm. Weeks ago. 

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

First few threat or two yes, after that it’s up in the air still 10-14 days away, after this coming week it doesn’t look dry, for now…

Where have we heard that before?  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

You know we’ve hit rock bottom when Don’s posts mimic Brett’s. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Cousin Donnie tried to sound the alarm. Weeks ago. 

Where have we heard that before?  

That was my point the “rain” on the ops is 10-14 days away, plenty of time to change.  Especially with that much cold in Canada.  February is peak season for snow in New England, roll the dice for the 100th time it seems since our last good storm and pattern and let’s see what we roll.  

[Damage In Tolland]

48 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

You can lead a horse to the water but you can make them drink it 

Ensembles still have a strong tightly compressed zonal flow. It won’t be wet like that if they’re right. Those are equivalent to posting snow maps 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ensembles still have a strong tightly compressed zonal flow. It won’t be wet like that if they’re right. Those are equivalent to posting snow maps 

You’ll likely see some changes on the next drought monitor report.  Most of SNE will probably move into moderate. 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That was my point the “rain” on the ops is 10-14 days away, plenty of time to change.  Especially with that much cold in Canada.  February is peak season for snow in New England, roll the dice for the 100th time it seems since our last good storm and pattern and let’s see what we roll.  

In all seriousness—I’m on to 2025-26, but it’d be an almost incomprehensible level of futility if we went through peak snow climo without something. I know we’re willing to roll the dice on a gradient pattern but we're doing so because all the other rolls we had with loaded dice were a loss.

Nothing has come easy (not that I expected it to) and turning to February we're hoping that a pattern notorious for creating winners and losers produces for most of us. That’s shaky ground to stand on to me considering the actual tenor of the season.

Again, I think it snows, and I’m sticking with my thought that mby gets another ~20-25” this season, but even as I read this sentence it seems like a stretch given the next 10 days or so that will likely fail to produce meaningful snow in CT and a potentially sensitive pattern afterward. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ensembles still have a strong tightly compressed zonal flow. It won’t be wet like that if they’re right. Those are equivalent to posting snow maps 

The amount of bullshit in these threads is amazing.  You all can keep on bitching if you want and stating things that aren’t true. The upcoming pattern for Feb isn’t modeled as dry currently, I posted the charts to show it.  Whether it’s rain or snow, Let’s see what happens.  It’s not a lights out winter is over pattern plain and simple, it’s actually quite the opposite which is all we can hope for in February. 

[ORH_wxman]

First week of Feb looks tough for snow…although that could always change. Ensembles and weeklies both def look decently cold for second week of Feb. Maybe we can mimick Feb 1972 pattern…that was a La Niña with kind of a dud Dec/Jan for snow and then Feb start off as the typical SE ridge torchy pattern but then it flipped middle of the month and several snow events including a major one occurred. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You’ll likely see some changes on the next drought monitor report.  Most of SNE will probably move into moderate. 

Already are. Almost extreme

 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

In all seriousness—I’m on to 2025-26, but it’d be an almost incomprehensible level of futility if we went through peak snow climo without something. I know we’re willing to roll the dice on a gradient pattern but we're doing so because all the other rolls we had with loaded dice were a loss.

Nothing has come easy (not that I expected it to) and turning to February we're hoping that a pattern notorious for creating winners and losers produces for most of us. That’s shaky ground to stand on to me considering the actual tenor of the season.

Again, I think it snows, and I’m sticking with my thought that mby gets another ~20-25” this season, but even as I read this sentence it seems like a stretch given the next 10 days or so that will likely fail to produce meaningful snow in CT and a potentially sensitive pattern afterward. 

 Nothing is certain, we just don’t know. Maybe it snows, maybe it doesn’t? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

First week of Feb looks tough for snow…although that could always change. Ensembles and weeklies both def look decently cold for second week of Feb. Maybe we can mimick Feb 1972 pattern…that was a La Niña with kind of a dud Dec/Jan for snow and then Feb start off as the typical SE ridge torchy pattern but then it flipped middle of the month and several snow events including a major one occurred. 

I agree Feb 1-5 or so.. then after that we should reshuffle, wonder if we can get a well timed high for a wintry mix at least instead of all rain in that Feb 1-5 timeframe 

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The amount of bullshit in these threads is amazing.  You all can keep on bitching if you want and stating things that aren’t true. The upcoming pattern for Feb isn’t modeled as dry currently, I posted the charts to show it.  Whether it’s rain or snow, Let’s see what happens.  It’s not a lights out winter is over pattern plain and simple, it’s actually quite the opposite which is all we can hope for in February. 

Only one complaining is scooter.  I do not think that pattern looks wet. Might it rain or snow a few times .. sure. But the ensembles are not showing some wet pattern like last winter 

[CoastalWx]

I’m sure it will be all rain at that time and then sun and 498 thicknesses in between. 

[qg_omega]

Pattern looks absolutely awful going forward, it’s a worse version of January since the moisture brings more warmth now followed by cold and dry rinse and repeat.  Dreadful

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure it will be all rain at that time and then sun and 498 thicknesses in between. 

That’s favored for now, we just hope it changes, we are due… eventually it will break. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s favored for now, we just hope it changes, we are due… eventually it will break. 

Wolfie get ahold of your phone?

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only one complaining is scooter.  I do not think that pattern looks wet. Might it rain or snow a few times .. sure. But the ensembles are not shoring some wet pattern like last winter 

Telling it how it is shouldn’t be seen as complaining.  I don’t make the weather.

[Damage In Tolland]

Danger lurks ?

https://x.com/jgodynick/status/1883171945111552414?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wolfie get ahold of your phone?

Maybe he has, maybe he hasn’t, we just don’t know. 

[Kitz Craver]

22 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s favored for now, we just hope it changes, we are due… eventually it will break. 

I’ve seen many a red-tag say, “Nope, it doesn’t work like that”

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Maybe he has, maybe he hasn’t, we just don’t know. 

Don’t come round at night  , cuz he’s bound to take your life.. there’s a bad Wolf on the right . 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You know we’ve hit rock bottom when Don’s posts mimic Brett’s. 

Rock bottom is still a few weeks away

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I’ve seen many a red-tag say, “Nope, it doesn’t work like that”

??? Until it does, we won’t always get skunked during favorable patterns, just bad luck… 

[Torch Tiger]

9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I’ve seen many a red-tag say, “Nope, it doesn’t work like that”

Maybe it does, maybe it won't? We just don't know.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Rock bottom is still a few weeks away

 

[mahk_webstah]

41 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Pattern looks absolutely awful going forward, it’s a worse version of January since the moisture brings more warmth now followed by cold and dry rinse and repeat.  Dreadful

So good to have your hot take

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

You can envision a certain poster raging out, running over their laptop with a plow truck while listening to this

[kdxken]

So much for an early spring.