February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[DavisStraight]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I suppose it depends on how you define big dogs but next week could bring a pretty big snowstorm

So far, they've been small, hoping a big dog sneaks into the pattern.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I suppose it depends on how you define big dogs but next week could bring a pretty big snowstorm

12z GFS

[jbenedet]

That's some serious cold in Quebec on Saturday - Sunday. Sub zero highs, in quebec city. I think suppression risk is real for NNE.  Looks great for the southern crew though.

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS

The one near Valentines Day looks promising.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That's some serious cold in Quebec on Saturday - Sunday. I think suppression risk is real for NNE.  Looks great for the southern crew though.

Next week too, those are some serious high pressures sitting up near the Hudson Bay....Just need a good storm to run into it

[Prismshine Productions]

12z GFS

Lotta moisture for that 13th storm

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[jbenedet]

Perfect high placement with arctic airmass in place. 

I think this is great setup for a 6"-10" storm, pike south. I think the risk is we see ticks south on this, and a sharp cut off just to the north. 

The ensembles are already showing it.

LI, coastal CT RI and southeast MA is where you want to be imo.

[SnowGoose69]

I also think it ends up being one storm, not sure I believe the idea of a whole bunch of different waves riding the boundary based on how things have gone this winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

13th keeps popping up...  this GFS run is a foot of snow.  It would be because this one is not a straight shot from the west along a narrow inclusion field, it's coming up the coast as a quasi Miller A - but by virtue of source ( most importantly ...) has a pig ton of PWAT to lop over the polar air mass ...

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

13th keeps popping up...  this GFS run is a foot of snow.  It would be because this one is not a straight shot from the west along a narrow inclusion field, it's coming up the coast as a quasi Miller A - but by virtue of source ( most importantly ...) has a pig ton of PWAT to lop over the polar air mass ...

Almost reminds me of this event

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0107.php#picture

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Almost reminds me of this event

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0107.php#picture

Can't help but have a little movement looking at the progs.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Can't help but have a little movement looking at the progs.

How long has it been since we saw this type of Scooter high with a juicy system coming out of the south? It’s starting to get that “look” where something larger could happen…just need to get this a bit closer but the cross-guidance support is really strong for being a week out  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

How long has it been since we saw this type of Scooter high with a juicy system coming out of the south? It’s starting to get that “look” where something larger could happen…just need to get this a bit closer but the cross-guidance support is really strong for being a week out  

I know, was thinking to myself about the look....but don't want to jump the gun this early. 

[Lava Rock]

Did we lose next Weds system or was it a longshot?

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

Did we lose next Weds system or was it a longshot?

 

I think it kinda is melding into one on Thursday maybe..?  Long way to go on that. 

[jbenedet]

Dews in the low teens and I doubt my high gets out of the low 20's on Sunday. 

Not a recipe for big snow sans a mid level hook up and CCB, which is not the case here...

Congrats SOP.

wagons south.

[SJonesWX]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Dews in the low teens and I doubt my high gets out of the low 20's on Sunday. 

Not a recipe for big snow sans a mid level hook up and CCB, which is not the case here...

Congrats SOP.

wagons south.

I don’t remember what year it was, but relatively recently we had a 6”+ storm with temps hovering around 0. And we get snow in low 20s all the time. just 3 days ago in fact.

[brooklynwx99]

just so people understand how absurd modeling is getting for mid-late month, this is the GEPS through 300. insane amounts of snow

this is the pattern during that mean. the block is still strong over the Davis Strait. the largest storm from this pattern likely hasn't even occurred yet and NYC/BOS still have 18" on the mean. wild

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Ensembles absolutely lit up for next week, My god. What a stretch incoming. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ensembles absolutely lit up for next week, My god. What a stretch incoming. 

trying not to be hyperbolic but it's insane. how is the mean that lit up with the block not even having decayed yet? that's when you usually get the big dog

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

trying not to be hyperbolic but it's insane. how is the mean that lit up with the block not even having decayed yet? that's when you usually get the big dog

The good side of the gradient.. let’s hope it holds.. 

[Patrick-02540]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

All eyes turn to Wilton next week and beyond. Let the power of 1994 TWC local on the 8s flow through your veins. 
 

 

 

Awesome.  Wow...took me right back to those snowy days during college Christmas breaks.  As i get older, nostalgia has a much bigger impact on me.  

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just so people understand how absurd modeling is getting for mid-late month, this is the GEPS through 300. insane amounts of snow

Insane for SNE and points south but nicely AN in my area, ~13" compared to 10", as the average SN is about 0.8"/day for that period.  

 

[Prismshine Productions]

just so people understand how absurd modeling is getting for mid-late month, this is the GEPS through 300. insane amounts of snow

That is the 10:1 rates too... Kuchie got to be around 2 feet if not more I imagine

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[Sey-Mour Snow]

I see why euro was on hold …. Holy shit , one of the most epic op runs of all time .. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

When do we take socks off and begin to unzip?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When do we take socks off and begin to unzip?

When the snow is falling. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I see why euro was on hold …. Holy shit , one of the most epic op runs of all time .. 

Someone posted it in a Discord server... Somebody give @HIPPYVALLEY @ineedsnow and @40/70 Benchmark pulse checks

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[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Someone posted it in a Discord server... Somebody give @HIPPYVALLEY @ineedsnow and @40/70 Benchmark pulse checks

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Where do I sign up for the whining crew that only gets 30"....

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Someone posted it in a Discord server... Somebody give @HIPPYVALLEY @ineedsnow and @40/70 Benchmark pulse checks

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