February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Prismshine Productions]

Fun

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[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Fun

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

Yup and you should post that in the February 9 thread

[ORH_wxman]

What a crazy arctic configuration by mid month 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What a crazy arctic configuration by mid month 

That looks like January cold and dry suppression all over again 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That looks like January cold and dry suppression all over again 

Their is nothing similar to last month on that posted map 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That looks like January cold and dry suppression all over again 

 

 

 

[Layman]

On 1/23/2025 at 4:46 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s a sample…H5 first set and H85 temp second set

 

 

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What a crazy arctic configuration by mid month 

 

For those of you that can read the tea leaves in these maps, I'm curious how you interpret the quality or cohesiveness of these images from late January and today.  Does it imply the modeling was accurate?  Did the atmosphere trend in a way that made sense from late January's output to todays?  Just curious because the general vibe seems to often be viewing a current map with some level of conviction but over time, it often changes, many times drastically, but does it do so in a sensible way?  I'm assuming it does, and you can view it in hindsight and say "Sure, you can absolutely see how that evolution happened".   

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Layman said:

 

 

For those of you that can read the tea leaves in these maps, I'm curious how you interpret the quality or cohesiveness of these images from late January and today.  Does it imply the modeling was accurate?  Did the atmosphere trend in a way that made sense from late January's output to todays?  Just curious because the general vibe seems to often be viewing a current map with some level of conviction but over time, it often changes, many times drastically, but does it do so in a sensible way?  I'm assuming it does, and you can view it in hindsight and say "Sure, you can absolutely see how that evolution happened".   

Those were weeklies I posted in January and I’d say they’ve done pretty well. They never fully bought a February torch unless we were talking about some of the progs from maybe prior to January 15th which is getting way out into clown range even for weeklies. Weeklies were def hinting at a coldish gradient pattern which is why I was somewhat optimistic despite February often sucking in La Ninas. Especially once the ensembles were showing the same thing as we got closer. This one looked like it could stay cold enough for a lot of chances.
 

I don’t think the weeklies completely foresaw the huge PV displacement that looks like will occur but they were keeping that PV lurking just N of Hudson Bay 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Those were weeklies I posted in January and I’d say they’ve done pretty well. They never fully bought a February torch unless we were talking about some of the progs from maybe prior to January 15th which is getting way out into clown range even for weeklies. Weeklies were def hinting at a coldish gradient pattern which is why I was somewhat optimistic despite February often sucking in La Ninas. Especially once the ensembles were showing the same thing as we got closer. This one looked like it could stay cold enough for a lot of chances.
 

I don’t think the weeklies completely foresaw the huge PV displacement that looks like will occur but they were keeping that PV lurking just N of Hudson Bay 

Speaking of PV/SSW, is it still looking like it did yesterday?  Cuz that was pretty impressive looking yesterday. 

[iceman1]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What a crazy arctic configuration by mid month 

the vortex is splitting going to get cold  

[Snowcrazed71]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That looks like January cold and dry suppression all over again 

Get a grip of yourself. Lol

[mahk_webstah]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What a crazy arctic configuration by mid month 

It looks like perfect alley for storm to come up the East Coast or across the Ohio valley and tap the cold air to the north

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Speaking of PV/SSW, is it still looking like it did yesterday?  Cuz that was pretty impressive looking yesterday. 

Yes. Stratospheric vortex basically elongated by 120h and fully split by D7…then I posted D10 at the bottom. This might have ramifications for prolonging the blocking into late February and March  if we get a full SSW with a clean split  

 

 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

cold wedged the high... forecast was 44 but only hit 38

[WinterWolf]

Thanks Will.  Wow..quite the look on our side of the pole this time. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Welcome to the 1970s.

[dendrite]

Take another 10F off and maybe. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, dendrite said:

Take another 10F off and maybe.

that will still be around 0

[Prismshine Productions]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Welcome to the 1970s.

 

[dendrite]

I’ll take the over on that on 2/17. That’s almost as cold as 2023 except 2 weeks later.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Elongation is nice to look at but it has to produce. The past 4-5 ssw’s failed. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Elongation is nice to look at but it has to produce. The past 4-5 ssw’s failed. 

Don’t worry. We got an executive order for it today.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll take the over on that on 2/17. That’s almost as cold as 2023 except 2 weeks later.

BOS at -7 that late would be crazy. BOS -7 at anytime of the winter is Uber rare. Even back during day of yore. So yeah..I’ll take the over too, lol. 
 

Logan BOS temps colder than -5:

1943: -14

1957: -12

1980: -7

2004: -7

2016: -9

2023: -10

[CoastalWx]

Still mind boggling they got to -10 in 2013. I remember at like 7p that night it still has a ways to go and I was wondering, but by 9 it started to free fall. 

[powderfreak]

Snowing big flakes again.

Thinking another 3” tonight at home, another half a foot for the mountain after last night’s 4”.

If we hit on this active pattern, the mountain snowpack is going to get up there.

[cut]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snowing big flakes again.

Thinking another 3” tonight at home, another half a foot for the mountain after last night’s 4”.

If we hit on this active pattern, the mountain snowpack is going to get up there.

Thinking about coming up for a few days in the first week of March - Im thinking there is a chance of epicocity!!!  Tree skiing could be treemendous!!!!

[mreaves]

42 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

that will still be around 0

Other way

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, cut said:

Thinking about coming up for a few days in the first week of March - Im thinking there is a chance of epicocity!!!  Tree skiing could be treemendous!!!!

Mountain snowpack already a good foot above normal and the snowpack is awesome with no rain in January.  If the next 2-3 weeks hit we could be making a run at 100” at the stake.  2019 was the last time over 100” depth but it feels primed to take another step up sitting at ~5.5 feet with a potentially active stretch continuing.

[Layman]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Mountain snowpack already a good foot above normal and the snowpack is awesome with no rain in January.  If the next 2-3 weeks hit we could be making a run at 100” at the stake.  2019 was the last time over 100” depth but it feels primed to take another step up sitting at ~5.5 feet with a potentially active stretch continuing.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. Stratospheric vortex basically elongated by 120h and fully split by D7…then I posted D10 at the bottom. This might have ramifications for prolonging the blocking into late February and March  if we get a full SSW with a clean split  

 

 

 

And I was just starting to daydream about golf and looking at the 2025 tournament signup page.