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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man, you obsessed with pack.

I’m not the only one. When you live where I live and you take long walks in the woods every day, and the pack is really something fantastic in the winter. So yes, I like thick long lasting pack. When you live in an urban environment, it’s different. Within two or three days the package is dirty and you just want fresh snow.
 

Also, when you have a good pack out here in the country, even a walk in a 2 inch snowfall feels like you’re in the middle of a big storm

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26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I assume that is a comment about the thread I started. In my defense, you don’t think there should be a thread for an event that is less than a week out with good potential for the whole region… I’m surprised no one else started it. And we could definitely have a Tip type of thread for the 12th which is inside of 10 days and has been a strong signal for several days.

I don’t believe the bad juju nonsense about starting threads. That’s just voodoo.  
You start  a thread when there’s a reason.

juju is what it is... and can be be bad juju, or good juju, but juju exists.  Just don't make the juju gods angry.

I didn't see that you started a thread, only the Tip map.

But, I like typing, "juju".

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9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m not the only one. When you live where I live and you take long walks in the woods every day, and the pack is really something fantastic in the winter. So yes, I like thick long lasting pack. When you live in an urban environment, it’s different. Within two or three days the package is dirty and you just want fresh snow.
 

Also, when you have a good pack out here in the country, even a walk in a 2 inch snowfall feels like you’re in the middle of a big storm

I don't live in an urban area, but pack is whack. Give me the events. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

Pack is good. Ground insulation and covers the hoarders’ trash yards. 

I guess to me I'm not going to have a stroke if it's not there. We obviously take if it is, but if I could have 80" on the season and have pack not more than 2 days, I'd be fine vs 30" with a crusty 3" pack for the whole season.

 

But Mark seems to lose sleep over it. Maybe he's nervous about Sunday.

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Just now, DJln491 said:

these runs are just non stop.  man something sizeable has to hit

Yeah, not sure I agree tho -

I get the excitement but the compression/speed is a huge limiting factor to big dawg constructed events.

But that should be okay..   you load up enough nickle and dimes and have them succeed, you're getting there in the aggregate - and in terms of entertainment value it's probably better because of the constant dopamine heh.   seriously though -

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, not sure I agree tho -

I get the excitement but the compression/speed is a huge limiting factor to big dawg constructed events.

But that should be okay..   you load up enough nickle and dimes and have them succeed, you're getting there in the aggregate - and in terms of entertainment value it's probably better because of the constant dopamine heh.   seriously though -

 

I think any "strong" event in terms of lower MSLP probably comes after day 12-14 or so when perhaps the trough axis and the blocking up north align for that.

 

For the time being this looks like one of those deals where if we are to get a large event (12"+) it's more due to long duration overrunning. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think any "strong" event in terms of lower MSLP probably comes after day 12-14 or so when perhaps the trough axis and the blocking up north align for that.

 

For the time being this looks like one of those deals where if we are to get a large event (12"+) it's more due to long duration overrunning. 

yeah, can't disagree in principle.  It's just physically not happening when the flow is so fast.  Big systems require big curvature, which speed fights curvature in the purely Newtonian sense.  It just exceeds the Corriolis parameter and blah blah blah you know what I mean

but getting out there in time, there is signs of a relaxed EPO with a rising PNA ...sort of a reversal...  It's vague for the time being but if it gets more coherent...  probably favors more of a larger body event.

you're right about the method for duration in a fast flow. You just need to get sort of luckily positioned in a dynamics series, and it becomes like 36 hours with a couple of waves going by just underneath.   it's pretty much the only way to do it when a balloon ride competes with air line traffic velocity patterns.   j/k

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Scott already mentioned it but here's an example of how to get a duration event in a fast flow... you can see the elongation here is making up spatially for the rate of motion being so fast.

image.png.96075782206a6426969a2c6a79af99ed.png

Heh..  another way to look at it.   D= R*T   ...  when the D is very large ( like ^ ), then the time ( duration of the event in this context...) becomes large.     100 MI/40 mph   versus    1,000 mi/ 40mph

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Scott already mentioned it but here's an example of how to get a duration event in a fast flow... you can see the elongation here is making up spatially for the rate of motion being so fast.

image.png.96075782206a6426969a2c6a79af99ed.png

Not that the GFS currently depicts it, but that would also be a decent setup for an ice event.

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27 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

You're in NH. I thought that was only a VT thing. Used to see tons of it along the snowmobile trails...

Yeah, that is an NNE-wide thing.

10 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That’s why NNE is so much more picturesque in a snowy winter 

 

 

Up to 38F and PC we drip and compact.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Just a parade of storms every few days on the GFS.

Different architecture (and magnitude so far) but frequency like Feb 2008.  :D
 

He sucked on the pats

They essentially replaced him for Meyers, with ugly results.  2023-24 stats for each:
           Catches    Yards     TD
Ju-Ju       47          491        3     

Jacobi    158        1834      12

 

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