February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's the hope that kills you.

Poor snowcrazed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

No... big buns for trying to multitask and falling for a joke post from one of what I consider to be one of the most trustworthy posters

Snowcray wants to know the track and precip type. Lets get those sharpies out…

[George001]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Hey, I'm happy enough there's some possible action showing in the pipeline, doesn't need to be 1888

There is a good chance the next 2 weeks are the snowiest period of the winter for better or worse

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

There is a good chance the next 2 weeks are the snowiest period of the winter for better or worse

I would say that's pretty much normal for the first two weeks of February to be the snowiest of winter.

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

There is a good chance the next 2 weeks are the snowiest period of the winter for better or worse

That’s not surprising since we are entering our snowiest time climatologically speaking of the winter.   

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I would say that's pretty much normal for the first two weeks of February to be the snowiest of winter.

Seemed like we bottomed out in temperatures during climo cold week, too -

check that... but at least around here... I had multiple nights below 0 surrounding the 24th of January, with highs at 20 or less.   It's been chilly overall..but that was kind of an embedded nadir

[mahk_webstah]

I’m wondering how warm we’re gonna get today up here. Forecast is upper 30s too around 40 I think. 23 now and I’m kind of doubting it.

[weatherwiz]

Let's just fire the cannons right through February. I love active February's...by this time I am definitely ready for Spring/warmer weather so when you get an active February you

1) Are getting nailed with snow which is fantastic 

2) It makes the time go by faster 

This pattern is like the equivalent of the ring of fire pattern during the summer...as Tampa Bay Bucs fans say, "FIRE THE CANNONS"

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's just fire the cannons right through February. I love active February's...by this time I am definitely ready for Spring/warmer weather so when you get an active February you

1) Are getting nailed with snow which is fantastic 

2) It makes the time go by faster 

This pattern is like the equivalent of the ring of fire pattern during the summer...as Tampa Bay Bucs fans say, "FIRE THE CANNONS"

My fav 00z operational model run was the GGEM ... not for any predictive value ( of course ..haha ) but just the cinema.  Given a small modulation, that was 3 events in a really beautiful temporal distribution - about every 3 days on the button.

It's been a long, long time since we had a steady diet of nickle and dime potentials in an ensemble line modeled set-up.   You could be enjoying a nice low end 6" warning event, and a half day later you're already in a winter storm watch.   This happened in 2015, 1995, 1994 ... 2008 ( I think..) it's been that long as far as I recall. 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m wondering how warm we’re gonna get today up here. Forecast is upper 30s too around 40 I think. 23 now and I’m kind of doubting it.

Probably mid 30s around CON. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My fav 00z operational model run was the GGEM ... not for any predictive value ( of course ..haha ) but just the cinema.  Given a small modulation, that was 3 events in a really beautiful temporal distribution - about ever 3 days on the button.

It's been a long, long time since we had a steady diet of nickle and dime potentials in an ensemble line.   You could be enjoying a nice low end 6" warning event, and a half day later you're already in a winter storm watch.   This happened in 2015, 1995, 1994 ... 2008 ( I think..) it's been that long as far as I recall. 

Yup...we don't see stretches like what is being modeled too often. This is what makes winter to me...I would rather have several small-to-medium sized small events versus one large one. I know that is one of the bigger debates here but we endure a long cold season across these parts...may as well spread the wealth around. Several medium sized events can rack up the seasonal totals quickly.

 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I would say that's pretty much normal for the first two weeks of February to be the snowiest of winter.

Yep, this is why I disagree with the idea that the best period will be later in the month or even early March. It could happen, but the ensembles are lit up for the next couple weeks and peak climo is the last week of Jan and the first 2 weeks of Feb. 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...we don't see stretches like what is being modeled too often. This is what makes winter to me...I would rather have several small-to-medium sized small events versus one large one. I know that is one of the bigger debates here but we endure a long cold season across these parts...may as well spread the wealth around. Several medium sized events can rack up the seasonal totals quickly.

 

Yeah, the problem with big events is that it's like cashing out an IPE bank account - "P" meaning planetary, so integrated planetary energy. 

There's a kind of "extratropical IPE budget" in a sense.  You can be peppered by nickle and dimes, or use up the IPE in a go.  That's why when you look at the days and sometimes weeks following historic big dawgs, you're typically waiting a while and enter a kind of post mortem dullard state of inactivity that protracts.  

So, "Big events" are tied to larger scaled mass field perturbations.  Those don't come around that often, which means ... big events don't come around that often.

Dated material at this point and getting old school, but that's really what the Archembault master's thesis was really useful for back in the day: exposing that, statistically.  

It used to get referenced quite a lot more frequently ... one can google it and read the paper and not get it because no one in society knows how to read and objectively intellectualize content any more ... but it is still out there.   HAHA   j/k   (does seem like we're nearing a "stupifying idiot-zombie" crisis at a broadly scoped societal scale, though) 

It really can be described in a simple sentence.   The atmospheric pattern remains the same until acted upon by a force that is sufficient to disturb the status quo.

Borrowed from Newton's First Law of Mechanics?   absolutely .   For atmospheric phenomenon, the disruption is defined by a changing PNA, or EPO, or AO, or WPO ...or NAO, etc etc..    That's why we discuss d(PNA) and not PNA.   Because the former is ( d = delta = "changing" ).   You look at the PNA and says -1.00, then three days later it says -.5 ... that is a +d(PNA), or rising value.  

Rising PNA uuusuually = d-drip chances.  

Now, just imagine all these indices that are defined ( and in reality ...there are infinite domain spaces; there's no real boundary, but some regions do show better correlation in the statistics so boundaries are determined that will always be estimates)  having their own changing modes. 

yeah ...

[iceman1]

the vortex is splitting  could get cold again 

 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, the problem with big events is that it's like cashing out the bank account - you party so hard you end up in overdose recovery, which is made interminably worse by the fact that the atmosphere has no other means to provide another dose until the cows come home. 

lol.   seriously though, "big events" are tied to larger scaled mass field perturbations. 

Dated material at this point and getting old school, but that's really what the Archembault statistical master's thesis was really useful for back in the day: exposing that, statistically.  

It used to get referenced quite a lot more frequently ... one can google it and read the paper and not get it because no one in society knows how to read and objectively intellectualize content any more ... but it is still out there.   HAHA   j/k   (does seem like we're nearing a "stupifying idiot-zombie" crisis at a broadly scoped societal scale, though) 

It really can be described in a simple sentence.   The atmospheric pattern remains the same until acted upon by a force that is sufficient to disturb the status quo.

Borrowed from Newton's First Law of Mechanics?   absolutely .   For atmospheric phenomenon, the disruption is defined by a changing PNA, or EPO, or AO, or WPO ...or NAO, etc etc..    That's why we discuss d(PNA) and not PNA.   Because the former is ( d = delta = "changing" ).   You look at the PNA and says -1.00, then three days later it says -.5 ... that is a +d(PNA), or rising value.  

Rising PNA uuusuually = d-drip chances.  

Now, just imagine all these indices that are defined ( and in reality ...there are is infinite domain spaces; there's no real boundary, but some regions do show better correlation in the statistics so boundaries are determined that will always be estimates)  having their own changing modes. 

yeah ...

Excellent post!

Maybe the data will prove me wrong here but I am not the snow climo encyclopedia like Will is, but I would think that more often that not, our winters which are either average in terms of snowfall or maybe a standard deviation higher are composed of numerous small-to-medium sized events. If you want to talk about the upper echelon of winters (your top 3) that's when you need to get multiple large events along with numerous medium sized. 

But your point about the deltas...this can't be overstated and quite frankly, isn't discussed enough. Too often things are looked at in a static state...the NAO is this, the PNA is that, here is what the D7-10 500mb mean shows...the static state doesn't matter, it's the delta...it's what is going on between time point A, time point B, time point C, ..., etc. that ultimately matters. It's understanding how these deltas are all contributing to the shape and make of the pattern and then incorporating smaller-scale and even mesoscale features which influence the evolution on the shorter time scale.  

[iceman1]

well i got another 3 inches of the white stuff my tot is now up to 6 inches for the season 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Guys it’s fake lol

That's why I asked..lol 

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I would say that's pretty much normal for the first two weeks of February to be the snowiest of winter.

I can remember one of the Accuweather guys way back in the day, on 1010 WINS in NYC (may have been Elliot Abrams).  He would refer to the first two weeks of February as "the snow window".

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Probably mid 30s around CON. 

Soften it up and freeze it hard.  
 

[WinterWolf]

Ya…had to be Elliot Abraham’s.  We grew up listening to Bob Steele in CT on WTIC 1080.  And every so often Elliott Abrahams would fill in for one of the regular METS(Ken Garry, Jim McDonald?, Charlie Bageley). They called it The Travelers Weather Service then (For Travelers Insurance).  

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Soften it up and freeze it hard.  
 

Why? It’s not a gain in pack density. 

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Holy smokes!

You should really start a thread for this.  It's never too early.

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Why? It’s not a gain in pack density. 

Well, if some of it liquefies a little bit, doesn’t it freeze into a harder surface? Particularly if it rains a little bit later?  I would think it would make the pack last longer, but you are more the expert than me.

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

You should really start a thread for this.  It's never too early.

I assume that is a comment about the thread I started. In my defense, you don’t think there should be a thread for an event that is less than a week out with good potential for the whole region… I’m surprised no one else started it. And we could definitely have a Tip type of thread for the 12th which is inside of 10 days and has been a strong signal for several days.

I don’t believe the bad juju nonsense about starting threads. That’s just voodoo.  
You start  a thread when there’s a reason.

[klw]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

It's the hope that kills you.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well, if some of it liquefies a little bit, doesn’t it freeze into a harder surface? Particularly if it rains a little bit later?  I would think it would make the pack last longer, but you are more the expert than me.

It’s a step in the melting direction and no change in water content . If anything, some of it evaporates from the snow surface. 
 

A rain or ZR event will knock a pack down too, but will get absorbed in to add more water content/density to the pack. 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well, if some of it liquefies a little bit, doesn’t it freeze into a harder surface? Particularly if it rains a little bit later?  I would think it would make the pack last longer, but you are more the expert than me.

Man, you obsessed with pack.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s a step in the melting direction and no change in water content . If anything, some of it evaporates from the snow surface. 
 

A rain or ZR event will knock a pack down too, but will get absorbed in to add more water content/density to the pack. 

I can understand the melting process direction, But wouldn’t it make the pack more durable due to it being a frozen block after the refreeze happens…I think that’s where he was going with that idea… 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I can understand the melting process direction, But wouldn’t it make the pack more durable due to it being a frozen block after the refreeze happens…I think that’s where he was going with that idea… 

No

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I can understand the melting process direction, But wouldn’t it make the pack more durable due to it being a frozen block after the refreeze happens…I think that’s where he was going with that idea… 

Water content determines durability more than anything else. A smaller impact is internal temperature of the pack and crystal structure but those are overwhelmed by water equivalent. Melting and refreezing doesn’t add water to it. 
 

It’s different if you add ZR or rain into the pack and then freeze it. That will add water equivalent.