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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

00z gfs and 00z eps wow..  what’s crazy about this pattern is we have a mean snowfall distribution with the 3 overrunning events on and before superbowl of 15-20” through the region on EPS then the pattern goes nuts for Valentines and beyond.. could be some extreme snow for some. Hopefully many. 

Just what the rodent predicted this morning.

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Pretty good look this morning overall. I do think Thursday is a lost cause, but maybe some snow or mix to start. Obviously better in NNE. 
 

One to watch this weekend. That also could be messy, but it looks like it has better support for a more wintry scenario. 
 

As discussed by many already, pattern looks darn good by mid month. Could support more coastals vs SWFE systems. 

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47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ok ens look good but It’s time to produce though. Otherwise it’s more of the same pretty upper air colors and favorable tele’s that look good on monitors and for bathroom krafties.  
 

Euro op looked more wet than white for SoP. I’ll trust that over what gfs is trying to sell.

It’s definitely more wet than white here. Looks like deals where we start with an inch or two and it’s washed away 

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2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

00z gfs and 00z eps wow..  what’s crazy about this pattern is we have a mean snowfall distribution with the 3 overrunning events on and before superbowl of 15-20” through the region on EPS then the pattern goes nuts for Valentines and beyond.. could be some extreme snow for some. Hopefully many. 

 

On 11/29/2024 at 2:31 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Simple is good. Let’s bring back overrunning events too lol

 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m the most down on winter here and even I don’t see that. I’m far from hopping a ride on the epic train, but I do think this reset has some legitimate promise in bringing a respectable winter month for most. 

I think as long as people don’t expect Feb 2015 and understand there will be some messy ptype events, then most who like winter will be encouraged with what’s shown. Prob some good front enders and maybe even a legit icing event at some point…we’ll see. Sleet will be in play too of course. 
 

But seeing lots of low level arctic cold ahead of these systems is something that has been absent for several winters now. It’s one reason I’ve been fairly optimistic on this pattern since last week….low level arctic cold is hard to move and model guidance often underestimates it. So unlike all these systems the past few winters where we are trying to hold onto an antecedent airmass that has -1C at 925 and -3C at 850 (which will provide very flaccid resistance), we have these much deeper entrenched airmasses with -10C or colder. Much harder to eradicate and your “correction vector” as Tip wound say, becomes biased toward the cold side. 

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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup. And before 85 it was worse.  Except April 82(spring blizzard); Feb 83(Big Feb storm); March 84 had a couple pretty good ones. But by and large it wasn’t good at all. 

That decade is when most of the snowmobile mfg that came in on the boon of the 70's went belly up.

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