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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Good luck

I’ll add I’m not talking verbatim on a d8 solution. Just saying a primary up to ART with the lower cold locked into New England kinda suggests snow to a good period of sleet somewhere…850-down cold with an annoying warm layer at 750. But it’s all shids and gigs at this time range. Just spit balling potential outcomes. 

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29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll add I’m not talking verbatim on a d8 solution. Just saying a primary up to ART with the lower cold locked into New England kinda suggests snow to a good period of sleet somewhere…850-down cold with an annoying warm layer at 750. But it’s all shids and gigs at this time range. Just spit balling potential outcomes. 

Exactly no one expects that to verify verbatim 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The snow and ice threats just kept going in clown range that run. It was like 6 events total over the 15 days. Crazy active. 

there's so much going for the blocking that I kinda have to believe it. the progression makes perfect sense. similar to March 2018 with the -PNA, retrograding Scandi ridge, N Atl wavebreaking and a strat assist. obv not going to be quite as anomalous but there are similarities

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The snow and ice threats just kept going in clown range that run. It was like 6 events total over the 15 days. Crazy active. 

Question, how much credence in the long range? Long range models have struggled all season with any kind of consistency; need to see these threats there within 5 days.

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7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Question, how much credence in the long range? Long range models have struggled all season with any kind of consistency; need to see these threats there within 5 days.

I wouldn’t put too much credence in anything beyond D5 in this pattern in terms of specifics but this type of pattern is definitely ripe for lots of rapid fire chances. So I think it makes sense to see so many systems. 

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Not a great look thursday on the mean, but much better look next weekend vs op. 

Yep. Midweek might be a struggle. Esp down here but the weekend looks pretty good on the eps mean. I don’t expect pristine systems but I’d love to get several big front enders that maybe change to sleet/ZR over interior before dryslotting. Get some meat in the pack if we’re gonna be dealing with a prolonged winter pattern into February. 

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The 9th is actually attempting a Miller B in the EPS mean ...  It's a rather unusual approach.  Typically, that storm type originates from the N/ or hybrid stream coming down the polar boundary, whilst lower +PP is situated over or N of our region, but this mean at 12z is approaching from the WSW.    I think I see it though.  The jet is still a polar branch - it's just doing a weird circuitous journey through the continent.  Also, there is modest +PP N of the region to help enhance baroclinicity but it's in the ambience more so than a nodal surface high pressure

whatever too much effort for this range

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28 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Mean snowfall the next 12 days on the EPS is 13.. that's damn good for  mean 

Pretty robust EPS run.  They’ve gotten progressively better, but even several days ago it was hinting at some legit potential…which is why I was posting it amidst all the bridge-jumping

 

image.png.763498a2f57b8a034a51ae9b72e9315a.png

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Pretty robust EPS run.  They’ve gotten progressively better, but even several days ago it was hinting at some legit potential…which is why I was posting it amidst all the bridge-jumping
 
image.png.763498a2f57b8a034a51ae9b72e9315a.png

It’s going to get fun in feb. Hang on for the Highs and lows of model watching. Going to be plenty of negativity when some of those don’t work, but looking back at the month as a whole on March 1st, I bet everyone gets in on something from nyc-nne.


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