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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

-PNA helping to lead to wave breaking in the N ATL and retrograde the Scandi ridge is a pretty classic progression. along with the 50mb shenanigans it gives me pretty good confidence in a blocking episode

thanks for saying that ( bold ...) 

... See, I've been trying to impress to a room full of crickets for ...years really, that the NAO is purely a non-linear wave distributed forcing downstream of the Pacific resolution.  In other words, these latter aspect trigger the NAO's circulation modes.   Not the other way around...  It may not be as much of a misconception as it used to be - thru a decade or so ago it was like a NAO chatty-kathy doll between the 1994 popularizing of it's identity, and the years of tsunamis miss-allocation of it that still to this day isn't completely dead.   But when rock star Met used to say the NAO retro will cause an expo... blah blah, what they really should have meant was, the Pacific is hiding it's storm production from the PNA, by non-linear forcing.  LOL   ...you know, totally clear to everyone -

Anyway, this so-far modeled event, with the PV split, appears to be completely harmonically caused, but at large scales.  We're just seeing what an exceptionally well-tuned multi-vocal range chorus sounds like when they hit the sweet tone -

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw, the split in the PV is evidenced all the way down to the 500 mb in the recent EPS - similar in the GEFs recency as well...

 

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Iiiii'd still be leery of the height compression.  That shit smearing from southern Cali to SE of the Maritime is real.  It's an opposing force that is always there - never mind why <_<

You'd rather have the above look than no look...sure.  haha.  But, it would be nice if that field was more neutral in the means, kind of like on the opposite side of the hemisphere you see above. That, underneath that Hudson node, would be the superior product.   Above is 70% of that

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34 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Worse there? Ok.  I'm 99% sure it was ice because it was the highest hills above 1k.  Not a gypsy moth fetish thing

Maybe.  And “worse” is obviously subjective, so maybe not.  
From my experience, the further north you went the worse it got.  Not a lot of difference between here and Holden I guess.   

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2 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

a proper clipper?  that would be nice.   a couple ticks colder in SNE for Monday, still torchy but not as bad, NAM had the same but not as beefy with the precip

Torchy where? It’s pretty cold even immediate shore gets to around freezing.. just inland is upper 20s  - 20-25 well inland.. 

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19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe.  And “worse” is obviously subjective, so maybe not.  
From my experience, the further north you went the worse it got.  Not a lot of difference between here and Holden I guess.   

Could have been from June 2011?

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9 minutes ago, Layman said:

I'm assuming these averages are calculated over some rolling span of time?  It's not simply year over year, is it?

30 year normals are recalculated every 10 years.

We’re on 1991-2020 right now. I usually like to refer back to the 1961-1990 norms since those are the ones I grew up with in HS/college in the 1990s. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I only care about my backyard. CT will torch.

Models are trying to bring you into the low 40s too, and I'm just not sure that happens.

I don’t think I hit 40 in Jan but my data is a mess right now. Trying to get everything setup on a new pc this weekend after a HDD failure earlier in the month. 

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