February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I feel a little better than I felt the other day. We still may have one or two that may not work out, but I’ll take the look. I probably would be more logical with my feelings if I wasn’t on my hands in knees by old man winter for three years. 

Lol…just think how much we’ll appreciate it if she finally delivers something of substance to SNE….the discipline and punishment was needed the last 3 years, to cleanse and purify our greedy souls.  The brimstone and fire chastisement is finally complete.  She is preparing to take us into her Bosom and suckle us all once again.  A purified region we now are.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, DJln491 said:

I was on winter break from college at the time.  My mom took video, she's a weather weenie too.  I actually have the tape (VHS), so maybe that will be my project today- get my hands on a VCR or find a way to transfer it to something more modern.  

You must have been by the Gunstock area then. 
 

I actually tried to go skiing that weekend there. We got off the highway and basically got nowhere with all the trees down. So then we tried Sunapee…that was closed and then we went to Wachusett, which had a ton of ice but was open. I had to this day the most frightening experience of my life. Literally thought I was going to die losing control on the slopes because of the ice. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Once can hope that we will finally break though for a nice stretch. 

We might get lucky and parlay that into a nice late Feb/March pattern too. 
 

@CoastalWx, we’re moving it up to D9 now…hopefully we can get this inside of D7

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PV gets pushed further south by the situation in the arctic. Seems like AO tries to go more negative. Almost north pole ridging poking up from the EPO and some retrograding Scandi-ridging. 

Yes and it’s not a stein look either. Man let’s hope.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PV gets pushed further south by the situation in the arctic. Seems like AO tries to go more negative. Almost north pole ridging poking up from the EPO and some retrograding Scandi-ridging. 

Straight up is gone negative in the index derivatives, post ~ the 10th.   

This is, by the way is not SSW related.   I know you're not asking or commenting, but I am just side noting:  it precedes any perception of a SSW ( much less whether any burst is actually propagating downward, which take 20 days min for the correlation to kick in..  So, when the posters in here inevitably start sharing the gifted insights of the X poster claims connecting the ensuing -AO to all that SSW stuff, please take those grandiosities with a degree of incredulity.

This is no statement attempting to abase a -AO.  We've seen countless excursions of the AO index over the years, both positive and negative, whence they circulation modes gets there via other means.  I'm just tired of the relentless application of the SSW complexity from people that appear to not really understand how it's occurrence mechanically influences the hemisphere.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

I was on winter break from college at the time.  My mom took video, she's a weather weenie too.  I actually have the tape (VHS), so maybe that will be my project today- get my hands on a VCR or find a way to transfer it to something more modern.  

Fire up that mofo and then post it here!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Fire up that mofo and then post it here!

Do you have movement just thinking about it?

[dendrite]

I drove back up to LSC during it on winter break to get my 87 cavalier repaired and drive it back home. I remember the Lakes Region being a disaster area and then the Notch not being too bad…I assume they were high enough up to be out of the shallow cold dome. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We might get lucky and parlay that into a nice late Feb/March pattern too. 
 

@CoastalWx, we’re moving it up to D9 now…hopefully we can get this inside of D7

 

Will, I know that’s the strat pictured there, but there is no guarantee(for lack of a better word there) that any of that translates/transfers to the troposphere..right?  Sometimes this whole phenomenon happens, and there is no sensible weather impact in the troposphere where we get our weather from, is that correct. 

[dendrite]

36 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Some point and click overnight temps in the Berlin NH area etc are at -25F.   Fun stuff. 

-30s or it’s weak sauce 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Straight up is gone negative in the index derivatives, post ~ the 10th.   

This is, by the way is not SSW related.   I know you're not asking or commenting, but I am just side noting:  it precedes any perception of a SSW ( much less whether any burst is actually propagating downward, which take 20 days min for the correlation to kick in..  So, when the posters in here inevitably start sharing the gifted insights of the X poster claims connecting the ensuing -AO to all that SSW stuff, please take those grandiosities with a degree of incredulity.

This is no statement attempting to abase a -AO.  We've seen countless excursions of the AO index over the years, both positive and negative, whence they circulation modes gets there via other means.  I'm just tired of the relentless application of the SSW complexity from people that appear to not really understand how it's occurrence mechanically influences the hemisphere.

Yep, that’s why when I posted that 50mb strat look, i mentioned f things line up well, we can parlay the organic mid-February look into a stratospheric-induced favorable look into early March…kind of like double-dipping. We can use the stratosphere to prolong the fun (hopefully)…or prolong the torturous teasing, lol. 

[Torch Tiger]

44 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Prob not ice storm damage. It was a little worse here in 2008 than Holden, and not really any more sign of that.  We have had other things happen that have caused tree damage.  

Worse there? Ok.  I'm 99% sure it was ice because it was the highest hills above 1k.  Not a gypsy moth fetish thing

[amarshall]

It ain't much but an honest coating in duxbury .




.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Will, I know that’s the strat pictured there, but there is no guarantee(for lack of a better word there) that any of that translates/transfers to the troposphere..right?  Sometimes this whole phenomenon happens, and there is no sensible weather impact in the troposphere where we get our weather from, is that correct. 

Correct there is no guarantee. But typically if you get a 50mb clean split, the chances are very good for enhanced blocking. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We might get lucky and parlay that into a nice late Feb/March pattern too. 
 

@CoastalWx, we’re moving it up to D9 now…hopefully we can get this inside of D7

 

I think what we are seeing there is really an exotic EPO explosion... It's not connected to an antecedent, down welled stratosphere warm intrusion/wave breaking event.  If so, one would have happened in early January.   So that's fascinating.    Lol, I get the feeling folks don't care to engage in the theoretical discussion as to what's enforcing things, rather just getting them to take place...

SSW's aside, it doesn't matter how we get there - once there ...that's obviously got an enormous potential to influence the mid latitudes on both sides of the hemisphere with that mobius structure like that.  I don't think I've ever - personally - seen that kind of symmetric geometry so clean, so deep, and so removing of noise ... interesting. 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Never too weak for a primashine kuchi map. 

Nickel and dime all day

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I feel a little better than I felt the other day. We still may have one or two that may not work out, but I’ll take the look. I probably would be more logical with my feelings if I wasn’t on my hands in knees by old man winter for three years. 

Well, when the extended ENS was showing a digging West Coast trough with a bulging southeast Ridge shades of the last two winters popped up. Regardless of what the weeklies were showing, it didn’t give a warm and fuzzy feeling. Luckily, it appears, that it is transient with a SSW looming.  

[ineedsnow]

moderate ice storm on the 12z ICON

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

moderate ice storm on the 12z ICON

If by “moderate ice storm”, you mean a tenth or two of radial in-situ icing, then yeah, maybe. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If by “moderate ice storm”, you mean a tenth or two of radial in-situ icing, then yeah, maybe. 

was thinking more .25 to .30  but ya a little over a half inch of qpf

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

was thinking more .25 to .30  but ya a little over a half inch of qpf

A half inch of QPF icing will produce around 2 tenths of radial ice assuming that all half inch accretes at perfect efficiency which won’t be the case. So you can probably lower it to 1-2 tenths of radial ice. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If by “moderate ice storm”, you mean a tenth or two of radial in-situ icing, then yeah, maybe. 

I know ...I was joking about this yesterday but partially serious...   it's difficult to call out an ice STORM in this compression/high velocity, low residence time flow type.  These systems are not standing wave icing events in this flow.  Some of them are done in 6 hours.  Even at moderate ZR clip, you're just not accreting warning levels -

There's a tendency - no shit, huh LOL - to next level all hyperbole at the bus stops of social media.

[DJln491]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You must have been by the Gunstock area then. 
 

I actually tried to go skiing that weekend there. We got off the highway and basically got nowhere with all the trees down. So then we tried Sunapee…that was closed and then we went to Wachusett, which had a ton of ice but was open. I had to this day the most frightening experience of my life. Literally thought I was going to die losing control on the slopes because of the ice. 

Yup, grew up skiing there.  This was the view of Gunstock from my parent's backyard, they sold in '21 and moved to FL .  I landed in CT after college for a job back when where you worked dictated your life for pretty much any job.  Kids are in h.s. now, after they graduate I'll be back in Lake Winni area. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw, the split in the PV is evidenced all the way down to the 500 mb in the recent EPS - similar in the GEFs recency as well...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw, the split in the PV is evidenced all the way down to the 500 mb in the recent EPS - similar in the GEFs recency as well...

 

Most importantly, that looks to be a configuration where the wintry "loot" would spill onto our side of the globe for once.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw, the split in the PV is evidenced all the way down to the 500 mb in the recent EPS - similar in the GEFs recency as well...

 

-PNA helping to lead to wave breaking in the N ATL and retrograde the Scandi ridge is a pretty classic progression. along with the 50mb shenanigans it gives me pretty good confidence in a blocking episode

[moneypitmike]

In other news......we really crank up the length of day progression.  We extend by about 1:15 over the month including more an 1/2 hour later sunset ftw.

[WinterWolf]

We’ve had a blocking episode already this year..And it was a disaster for us.  I hope this time around(if it it materializes) we can benefit from it, and not have it be too much of a good thing like it was a little while back.  But I’ll roll the dice again. 

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS beefing up the clipper

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

In other news......we really crank up the length of day progression.  We extend by about 1:15 over the month including more an 1/2 hour later sunset ftw.

Man you gotta be king of the buzzkill Mike. You must be a hoot at a party….