February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[moneypitmike]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Two distinct strong signals on EPS…the Thursday threat which is the warmest one…but it’s been trying to trend colder. 
 

Then next weekend (mostly centered on Sunday) which is a colder look for much of the region. 
 

There are additional weaker signals beyond that as the gradient pattern continues to provide chances, but those signals are weaker and more diffuse as you get out into clown range. 

Never too weak for a primashine kuchi map. 

[alex]

We are under an extreme cold warning for tonight. Not sure I’ve ever seen that and not sure I like it lol. 
 

currently 13 with light snow 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, alex said:

We are under an extreme cold warning for tonight. Not sure I’ve ever seen that and not sure I like it lol. 
 

currently 13 with light snow 

I believe it was our first. We'll issue them anytime the temperature is expected to feel like -25 or colder, with or without wind. 

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, alex said:

We are under an extreme cold warning for tonight. Not sure I’ve ever seen that and not sure I like it lol. 
 

currently 13 with light snow 

nice.

 

A balmy 17 with sn- here.

[DJln491]

2 hours ago, TheMainer said:

As long as it stays south of here you can have all the ice you want, I remember sitting in the dark next to the wood stove for a week in 1998 with all our food from the freezer out in the snow bank...

Same.  I was living in Lake Winni area in 1998 at 1300’ we were actually in the southern area for that storm and it was still brutal.  Parts of the forest up there are still messed up from that. Those asking for ice don’t know what they’re in for. Hard pass

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Same.  I was living in Lake Winni area in 1998 at 1300’ we were actually in the southern area for that storm and it was still brutal.  Parts of the forest up there are still messed up from that. Those asking for ice don’t know what they’re in for. Hard pass

Where were you exactly?

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Same.  I was living in Lake Winni area in 1998 at 1300’ we were actually in the southern area for that storm and it was still brutal.  Parts of the forest up there are still messed up from that. Those asking for ice don’t know what they’re in for. Hard pass

I know exactly what I am asking for . Trust me !

[MJO812]

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1885676988699988358?t=nIMvv0N48Sy8yCe4SGluVQ&s=19

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I know exactly what I am asking for . Trust me !

And you are the only one.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know exactly what I am asking for . Trust me !

Yes!

[Torch Tiger]

want

[Torch Tiger]

I was driving through 1000'+ even 1200'?  Holden, MA a few weeks ago and it still looked ravaged, 20 years later!  Trees were neutered

[wx2fish]

Should be a good one for the radiators tonight. High crests over NNE at the right time, just have to keep high clouds at bay. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I slept in this morning so bite it -

that 06z GFS for the 9/10th was a mise-en-science of winter joy...   It reminded me of that event in 2015, the one that came thru as more of a protracted WAA, with a series of waves along it, with arctic air entrenched on the N side.  Something like 15" occurred here from that, and I don't thing surface pressure of any of those two waves on the front back then were less than 1000mb by very much.  But is snowed moderate with some blowing and drifting for 18 hours straight  - I'm about going half from memory here, half from artistry because I remember it happened more so than the details. 

Anyway, this 06z is about the only way to get a longer duration event out of compressed, velocity saturated flow type.   It's also interesting that the 18, 00z runs leading were not hugely different.   Last I checked, the op Euro was in another universe -

Haven't seen any other guidance.

[UnitedWx]

35 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Same.  I was living in Lake Winni area in 1998 at 1300’ we were actually in the southern area for that storm and it was still brutal.  Parts of the forest up there are still messed up from that. Those asking for ice don’t know what they’re in for. Hard pass

Up through VT also. We had a snowmobiling weekend planned a week or so later. SO many closed trails due to downed trees

[CoastalWx]

EPS pushes back the ridge later in the 11-15 day after it bulges up. That’s a weird look honestly, but we’ll take it. We’ll be playing with fire, but if you want the goods we may have to dance with the devil. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I believe it was our first. We'll issue them anytime the temperature is expected to feel like -25 or colder, with or without wind. 

Thats new right? I've never seen these Extreme Cold Warning & Cold Weather Advisories before. But they have appeard all over the US this winter and havent seen any wind chill warnings/advisories. It looks to me they have replaced the Wind Chill Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories, right? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I was driving through 1000'+ even 1200'?  Holden, MA a few weeks ago and it still looked ravaged, 20 years later!  Trees were neutered

Prob not ice storm damage. It was a little worse here in 2008 than Holden, and not really any more sign of that.  We have had other things happen that have caused tree damage.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some point and click overnight temps in the Berlin NH area etc are at -25F.   Fun stuff. 

[DJln491]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Where were you exactly?

Gilford

[The 4 Seasons]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know exactly what I am asking for . Trust me !

Is your favorite movie The Ice Storm (1997)?

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Thats new right? I've never seen these Extreme Cold Warning & Cold Weather Advisories before. But they have appeard all over the US this winter and havent seen any wind chill warnings/advisories. It looks to me they have replaced the Wind Chill Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories, right? 

I believe they trialed them in the Upper Midwest the last couple of years, but yes it is nationwide this season.

It makes sense, we warned people if the wind chill hit -30 but not if the temperature fell to -30. Cold is cold. So this new product is for either wind chill or ambient temps.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS pushes back the ridge later in the 11-15 day after it bulges up. That’s a weird look honestly, but we’ll take it. We’ll be playing with fire, but if you want the goods we may have to dance with the devil. 

After a couple nape days mid month, looks like the eps tries to go full high lat blocking with ak ridge which essentially compresses the se ridge. Definitely a fine line but I can see how it would get more weeniesh in future frames. 

[ineedsnow]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know exactly what I am asking for . Trust me !

 

49 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

And you are the only one.

He's not the only one 

[ma blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

He's not the only one 

all I’m saying is I wanna see it happen once

[DJln491]

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know exactly what I am asking for . Trust me !

I was on winter break from college at the time.  My mom took video, she's a weather weenie too.  I actually have the tape (VHS), so maybe that will be my project today- get my hands on a VCR or find a way to transfer it to something more modern.  

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

After a couple nape days mid month, looks like the eps tries to go full high lat blocking with ak ridge which essentially compresses the se ridge. Definitely a fine line but I can see how it would get more weeniesh in future frames. 

Yeah I feel a little better than I felt the other day. We still may have one or two that may not work out, but I’ll take the look. I probably would be more logical with my feelings if I wasn’t on my hands in knees by old man winter for three years. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS pushes back the ridge later in the 11-15 day after it bulges up. That’s a weird look honestly, but we’ll take it. We’ll be playing with fire, but if you want the goods we may have to dance with the devil. 

PV gets pushed further south by the situation in the arctic. Seems like AO tries to go more negative. Almost north pole ridging poking up from the EPO and some retrograding Scandi-ridging. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

PV gets pushed further south by the situation in the arctic. Seems like AO tries to go more negative. Almost north pole ridging poking up from the EPO and some retrograding Scandi-ridging. 

Once can hope that we will finally break though for a nice stretch. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

After a couple nape days mid month, looks like the eps tries to go full high lat blocking with ak ridge which essentially compresses the se ridge. Definitely a fine line but I can see how it would get more weeniesh in future frames. 

We may not need waiting until after mid month ... 

In fact, I'd almost suggest that more likely players are troika through the 14th, then it may go cold and quiescent there after for awhile, because I agree with the compression - it's more than a mere observation; it's a large scale negative interference product that will limit the intra-scale events from ever being able to amplify.   That said, the three system - their success notwithstanding in this statement ... - that occur ~ the 6th, 9 or 10th, and the 13th-ish, are occurring prior to any such enhanced compression and therefore for more identity conserved - which leads to actual events succeeding in taking place.