February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[George001]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m still shoveling feet upon feet the gfs has given me this season. 

Same here, but it’s good to see something in the mid range. Worth keeping an eye on, but need the Euro to jump on board soon. Euro has been doing pretty good recently. It did good with the clipper, had it going north while the gfs had it going under us and giving us 5-6 inches of snow. Euro was also more north for the storm happening now, and it was right again. If the Euro is way north again, that would be very concerning.

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Maybe time to fire up the Funky Murphy's GTG thread? Likely doesn't hold for DUI however.

https://www.masslive.com/worcester/2025/01/heres-why-worcester-police-wont-hand-out-speeding-tickets-next-month.html

If they stop giving out DUIs we'll talk.

[ineedsnow]

complete grid failure on the GFS

[Prismshine Productions]

Holy fuck that Valentine's system...

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[ineedsnow]

@Damage In Tolland would approve

[ineedsnow]

3 to 4ft of snow and 2" of zr what could go wrong 

[Prismshine Productions]

3 to 4ft of snow and 2" of zr what could go wrong 

Cut the zr QPF in half (.5:1 for accrual), still a rather ugly natural disaster that will prompt multiple SoEs

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[Prismshine Productions]

3 to 4ft of snow and 2" of zr what could go wrong 

Then another clippah at the end of the run...

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[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Cut the zr QPF in half (.5:1 for accrual), still a rather ugly natural disaster that will prompt multiple SoEs

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I'll give up the rest of this winter and Spring can come if this run can verify 

[Prismshine Productions]

I'll give up the rest of this winter and Spring can come if this run can verify 

That would rapidly eat the snow deficit and bring a lot of folks near average

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[ineedsnow]

all models show high qpf the next couple weeks.. I feel like something big is going to happen and I'm pretty sure we get a pretty big ice storm at some point.. 

[Prismshine Productions]

all models show high qpf the next couple weeks.. I feel like something big is going to happen and I'm pretty sure we get a pretty big ice storm at some point.. 

If we get rid of the 750-850mb warm nose for Valentine's we got a HECS (or a big MECS at minimum)

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[Prismshine Productions]

Same here, but it’s good to see something in the mid range. Worth keeping an eye on, but need the Euro to jump on board soon. Euro has been doing pretty good recently. It did good with the clipper, had it going north while the gfs had it going under us and giving us 5-6 inches of snow. Euro was also more north for the storm happening now, and it was right again. If the Euro is way north again, that would be very concerning.

As expected, Dr. No says no

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[8611Blizz]

Euro mostly rain for Thursday which is fine. Hold the ice.

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS and CMC: snow
Euro: ice storm

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[8611Blizz]

It does like the 9th however...

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

@Damage In Tolland would approve

Now thst is something I would give up a full winter of snow for. Let’s make this happen 

[TheMainer]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Now thst is something I would give up a full winter of snow for. Let’s make this happen 

As long as it stays south of here you can have all the ice you want, I remember sitting in the dark next to the wood stove for a week in 1998 with all our food from the freezer out in the snow bank...

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

As long as it stays south of here you can have all the ice you want, I remember sitting in the dark next to the wood stove for a week in 1998 with all our food from the freezer out in the snow bank...

Wish we lived there then 

[Damage In Tolland]

They came around dumping salt as expected for the ice. Don’t want it but it helped allow me get my run in, 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Are we still expecting stein asking for a friend? 
 

that was a GFS run for the ages at 00z

 

5-7” of precip as snow and ice for SNE and CNE over 15 days 

[Damage In Tolland]

50’s Thursday / Friday ?

[Lava Rock]

Looks like a pack building week. About time

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[moneypitmike]

Picked up 4+” overnight here at Pit2.  Wasn’t expecting i’d be breaking out the snowblower this morning.  I think that’s about a foot over the past 10 days.  Progged -6 tonight.  Deep winter appeal--and feel.

 

 

 

[Kitz Craver]

06z GFS pretty much doubles down on the epic 0z run. Toned down like a hair, but still quite epic and would absolutely change the tenor of the season for pretty much all of SNE. Gotta get Dr No on board however. The GFS has been its little bitch this season.

[CoastalWx]

Euro wasn’t too bad. Definitely chances.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro wasn’t too bad. Definitely chances.

Best they have looked all winter

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Best they have looked all winter

Even down by you?

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Even down by you?

Yes but you are in a better spot right now. 

[ORH_wxman]

Two distinct strong signals on EPS…the Thursday threat which is the warmest one…but it’s been trying to trend colder. 
 

Then next weekend (mostly centered on Sunday) which is a colder look for much of the region. 
 

There are additional weaker signals beyond that as the gradient pattern continues to provide chances, but those signals are weaker and more diffuse as you get out into clown range.