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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

For now hold... but geesh!   not impossible that we're seeing the local hemisphere through winter goggles.   I'm guilty of it too. 

Models are going to struggle with that boundary - that's a slam dunk for poor performance.   Unfortunately ...about top shelf premium error magnitude exists across where ever that is

Yeah this is the type of pattern that is about as bad as it gets for model guidance in the medium/long range. Very high gradient with fast flow and an emphasis on what is going on in the fast flow coming out of the arctic regions which even in the age of satellite data is poor coverage up there. I’d expect lots of big shifts. Something that may look good at 6-7 days out could easily be congrats Montreal at verification…and vice versa. 

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23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

This is a good moment for you to jump in with one of your posts. I’m sure you probably just wait, model run after model run, until you find a good one to comment on!

I blocked is Arse.... Rather not even see is malarkey! 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is the type of pattern that is about as bad as it gets for model guidance in the medium/long range. Very high gradient with fast flow and an emphasis on what is going on in the fast flow coming out of the arctic regions which even in the age of satellite data is poor coverage up there. I’d expect lots of big shifts. Something that may look good at 6-7 days out could easily be congrats Montreal at verification…and vice versa. 

Perfectly stated!

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