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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

its early but I really think we have to watch Wednesday night into Thursday for some kind of ice storm

Need a much better high to show up on guidance....trying to on GGEM and to a lesser extent GFS...but still needs a lot of work.

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Ha ha omg ... dudes, we're not getting and ice "storm" in this kind of hyper velocity cosmic ray jet out of a quasar flow type. 

A 300 mile long icing strip gets through in 6 hours.  Light to moderate fall rates blasting through so quickly would lower the semantic requirement to something beneath storm.   LOL

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It's really not that much different than the going ideas, it's just about 200 mi or so further N with the front.  

The problem is, there's like 50 to 60 degrees of variance across the fugger ... That 312 hour frame could be nearing 75 in S Jersey, while Kevin blacks out and we don't get to see his posts anywhere ( oh no! ) from icing -

This gradient thing is getting rather excessive, all necessary jokes aside -   I mean, you wonder if this is even possible..

image.png.092603cda242b20df50013ebfc32a000.png

 

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Thursday/Friday on the Euro looks like maybe a front end thump of snow up here then by the time the warmup happens (up to 39) we only get 0.25 inches of rain, so net out to nothing. I'll take that over an inch of rain and a pack wiper, hope it comes way south like the GFS.

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6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s very clear most of February is warm and wet, should be no surprises.  We had a month of normal temps and did nothing with them

This is a good moment for you to jump in with one of your posts. I’m sure you probably just wait, model run after model run, until you find a good one to comment on!

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, ensembles are all pretty snowy up by you guys. lots of angst for the best snow means all year 

High variance though. Could easily miss out on those threats too. But yeah, the OP solutions could vary by 200 miles at D7 and beyond and even a 100 mile shift could be the difference between big snows and 65F flamingos. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

High variance though. Could easily miss out on those threats too. But yeah, the OP solutions could vary by 200 miles at D7 and beyond and even a 100 mile shift could be the difference between big snows and 65F flamingos. 

i’m liking the -NAO showing up around mid month. looks like a lot of pieces are there for a retrograding block

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For now hold... but geesh!   not impossible that we're seeing the local hemisphere through winter goggles.   I'm guilty of it too.  I mean I mentioned heat burst and recent seasons and -PNA and all that.. but, hammering consistency by these materialized charts gets a bit overbearing.

Models are going to struggle with that boundary - that's a slam dunk for poor performance.   Unfortunately ...about top shelf premium error magnitude exists across where ever that is

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