February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[snowman19]

@CoastalWx You must be enjoying all of the out of control SSWE voodoo hype all over twitter and facebook right now. Spreading like wildfire. An exact replica/redux of February, 2018 is locked in and on the way lol

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The golden age of America is upon us! Cherish, relish and be grateful for how the changes will positively affect you and especially your children .

light rain 36.5

Deep winter. Like Januarys of yore.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Deep winter. Like Januarys of yore.

For Maine. Yes. Congrats and enjoy the snows 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@CoastalWx You must be enjoying all of the out of control SSWE voodoo hype all over twitter and facebook right now. Spreading like wildfire. An exact replica/redux of February, 2018 is locked in and on the way lol

I haven't seen that, but I'm busy with other non weather stuff. How's the 50mb vortex doing?

[WinterWolf]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You know it's exciting when half a page is taken up on a Gulf of Mexico/America discussion.

 

On the plus side, the EPS continues to be snowier in the mean than any other time this winter....not saying I'm buying it, but I think ti speaks to the realistic potential for some good events in this upcoming pattern....as high variance/high volatility as it may be,

 

Yes back to weather…and hey, I’d rather it show that than the opposite.  We’ll have some chances it looks like. 

[CoastalWx]

I always look at how the 50mb vortex is forecast to behave. 10mb is voodoo IMO. I don't have access to the stuff like I used to. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes back to weather…and hey, I’d rather it show that than the opposite.  We’ll have some chances it looks like. 

EPS has two decent signals for potential siggy snow...first one is 2/8-9 and the second is 2/13-14....the latter a much weaker signal of course considering the lead time.

It's too bad we're getting a bit of a TPV lobe phase next week because otherwise, 2/5 would be a legit threat too. But I can't remember how many times I've said "too bad for a TPV lobe phasing out west" over the past 3 years.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I always look at how the 50mb vortex is forecast to behave. 10mb is voodoo IMO. I don't have access to the stuff like I used to. 

Euro has it splitting around 2/9-10

 

[ORH_wxman]

Out in clown range obviously by this point....but by the end of the run, it's obliterated

 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has two decent signals for potential siggy snow...first one is 2/8-9 and the second is 2/13-14....the latter a much weaker signal of course considering the lead time.

It's too bad we're getting a bit of a TPV lobe phase next week because otherwise, 2/5 would be a legit threat too. But I can't remember how many times I've said "too bad for a TPV lobe phasing out west" over the past 3 years.

That 2/8 timeframe has been historically decent many times... lets root for some historical JuJu

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Out in clown range obviously by this point....but by the end of the run, it's obliterated

 

Obviously needs to play nice with the handoff to the troposphere, but that kind of gives movement. 

[CoastalWx]

Is there an EPS version too? 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is there an EPS version too? 

weathermodels doesn't show EPS stratosphere which is really annoying....GEFS has it though....but the GEFS signal is not quite as robust, but its def there

 

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS clown range

 

[UnitedWx]

So seeing what Will posted about a possible upcoming pattern, is this what we call being nauseously optimistic? Sorry! I couldn't resist Seriously though, I'm all for seeing what may or may not develop out of what's depicted

[CoastalWx]

That's interesting and certainly something I'd like to see heading towards March for sure. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's interesting and certainly something I'd like to see heading towards March for sure. 

Yeah if we want to try for a big dog in March, this will increase our chances for sure. Usually lag time is only about 3 weeks if you're getting a big stratospheric event near 2/10

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if we want to try for a big dog in March, this will increase our chances for sure. Usually lag time is only about 3 weeks if you're getting a big stratospheric event near 2/10

If anyone would remember this, you certainly... Will. Do you remember a storm March 21/22 1991? It wasn't much of a winter but then we had a big dog Nor'Easter on those dates... all while I was driving back from Florida in a Ford Escort (puke) We hit first snow on the D.C. loop and were in and out all the way back to Granby CT. Seemed after like a harbinger of things to come the following years. This looks somewhat similar to the pattern leading up to that storm EDIT: 1990, or 1991. Almost positive it was 1991

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

If anyone would remember this, you certainly... Will. Do you remember a storm March 21/22 1991? It wasn't much of a winter but then we had a big dog Nor'Easter on those dates... all while I was driving back from Florida in a Ford Escort (puke) We hit first snow on the D.C. loop and were in and out all the way back to Granby CT. Seemed after like a harbinger of things to come the following years. This looks somewhat similar to the pattern leading up to that storm

Are you thinking of 1992? There was a snow event on those dates in '92....very cold March that year after a pathetic rest of winter. That one wasn't a big storm though...maybe like 3-6" type event. It did hit the I-95 corridor though too....kind of a clipper/redeveloper.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are you thinking of 1992? There was a snow event on those dates in '92....very cold March that year after a pathetic rest of winter. That one wasn't a big storm though...maybe like 3-6" type event. It did hit the I-95 corridor though too....kind of a clipper/redeveloper.

Yes, correct. It seemed larger because of the snow drought we'd been in. My book shows 7 inches in Granby. It was a good omen for later that year

[mahk_webstah]

wunderground beefing up some more for next weekend.  Now has 7.1"  Must've been good modelling news overnight.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I always look at how the 50mb vortex is forecast to behave. 10mb is voodoo IMO. I don't have access to the stuff like I used to. 

Yup

these high alt warm nodes are not uncommon. Most are not initiators … though the few that are, may ‘pulse’ in an out of the verification before the big burst occurs. 

I checked all this yesterday and though there is an impressive warm node modeled d8 or so in the 10s … at least in so far as the GFS, there wasn’t much of a subsequent penetration down to 30 .. 50.  It may have changed in that guidance since yesterday re these lower sigma levels but I haven’t checked today. 

Even if so … folks, you’re looking at 20 days min before the AO response. If the index is neggie prior to that … it’s likely motivated from other physical influences, because the down welling propagation takes time to arrive thru the tropopause region to where it couples. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Yes, correct. It seemed larger because of the snow drought we'd been in. My book shows 7 inches in Granby. It was a good omen for later that year

I was gonna say 92 as well…cuz that winter sucked…but that little decent storm was enough to get the sled out around the neighborhood that storm…small win is what it was. 

[Snowcrazed71]

39 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

That 2/8 timeframe has been historically decent many times... lets root for some historical JuJu

Yeah... Our blizzard of 2013 was the 8th I believe. 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah... Our blizzard of 2013 was the 8th I believe. 

'78 and several others around that date

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Baby keep you up all night?

Deflect, deflect.

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I was gonna say 92 as well…cuz that winter sucked…but that little decent storm was enough to get the sled out around the neighborhood that storm…small win is what it was. 

Looking back at the time I saw that as the make winter great again storm. Those several prior winters were complete duds. I remember rough wiring a house one of those Februarys in a T shirt, and it wasn't just a couple day thing

[wx2fish]

GFS is definitely more interesting next week. Warmer SWFE type look with a weak secondary. Would atleast keep the interior colder 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

CMC has a high impact winter storm verbatim wednesday several inches of snow and sleet to significant icing.. Interesting, no support currently for that much precip.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS clown range

 

This was in my blog update Monday night.

"While there is currently little support for a major stratospheric warming during the month of February, research implies that there is a threat from mid month into March. While the signal is not as strong as it was in recent analog years, such as 2018 and 2023, there are two reasons why this month should not be nearly as warm as other recent months of February, regardless of whether the PV remains of considerable intensity".