February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I would push those temp max zones at least 100mi south.  Just sayin'

I'd bump some 60's  if I could make that happen, especially CT

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's just incredibly boring.  No real warm days, few cold days, and those are generally nothing super cold.  No decent storms

Reminds me a bit of 2015-2016

Feb 2016 actually had a very impressive arctic shot around here, but was a very warm winter overall.

[Damage In Tolland]

We even lost the wintry threat next week that was being modeled. 

[FXWX]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We even lost the wintry threat next week that was being modeled. 

The threat next Sat/Sun is the one I'm counting on...

[mahk_webstah]

18 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The threat next Sat/Sun is the one I'm counting on...

Up here midweek looks like a bit of snow then mix and rain.  But wunderground already showing 4.5” snow sat and sun.

[UnitedWx]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We even lost the wintry threat next week that was being modeled. 

On what, the GFS? I hope you're not surprised... IT should have been called the CFS, Craps Forecasting System. As far as I'm concerned it's useless as tits on a bull past day 4

[Go Kart Mozart]

0z euro a bit weenie-ish.

For us, but also take a look at the Pacific NW!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We even lost the wintry threat next week that was being modeled. 

That was a small threat with not much support.. Next weekend is the first real widespread threat but could easily be all rain or just shear out we will see as we get closer..  mass border on northeast has a shot at Sunday night for a few inches. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

The threat next Sat/Sun is the one I'm counting on...

Hawaii getting almost 2' lol

[CoastalWx]

This will be a classic internal New England regional warfare pattern. 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This will be a classic internal New England regional warfare pattern. 

I'm what sense? 

[Damage In Tolland]

53 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That was a small threat with not much support.. Next weekend is the first real widespread threat but could easily be all rain or just shear out we will see as we get closer..  mass border on northeast has a shot at Sunday night for a few inches. 

We are going to be on the wrong side of any events. It’s mainly Route 2 north for most of them 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are going to be on the wrong side of any events. It’s mainly Route 2 north for most of them 

Yessir does look that way

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm what sense? 

Because half the region will be deep winter and the other half deep mud. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This is the kind of pattern the next couple weeks where Dendy gets 1-2 feet , Ray gets 4” and CT to Scooter sees coatings at ends 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully on the good side down here for a few.

[CoastalWx]

That 11-15 day still has me nervous. It’s definitely not dry I’ll say that. But man we play with fire. 

[ariof]

19 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's just incredibly boring.  No real warm days, few cold days, and those are generally nothing super cold.  No decent storms

Reminds me a bit of 2015-2016

Disagree.

2015-2016 was just very warm with one arctic shot. At BOS:

Dec:
2015: 45.3˚, 0.9" (high temp of 69˚ on xmas eve; not really the grinch because there was nothing to steal; I had friends in Vermont who went swimming in the pond they usually skated on)
2024: 35.3, 5.7"

Jan:
2016: 32.5˚, 9.5"
2025: 28.7˚, 8.2"

Jan has been similar-ish although cooler this year. Feb that year had the one cold snap (down to -9˚ in BOS) but the rest of the month was warm; it was 65˚ on the 1st and 64˚ on the 29th.

2015-6 had 35 days >50˚ at BOS (20, 4, 11), so far 2024-5 has had 8 (8, 0, ?)

[Typhoon Tip]

The 9th is attempting emergence. What I suspect would become a multi regional concern for the east/northeastern U.S.    

Too far out in time for specific goodies. I am aware there's also an overrunning type/SW flow set up for the 6th to get through first, but frankly ... the 9th-ish is just more interesting to me.  This is still primitive so let's not get carried away, but there are recent subtle changes among the various key teleconnectors. Alone they would likely be dismissed, but taken in aggregate, and combining the circumstantial hemisphere, the signal bears some meaning.  

For 2-3 days there is a local -EPO nadir, beyond which the index is collapsing in the outlook from all three EPS/GEFs/GEPs.  This flags hesitance to really alter the NE Pacific's influencing the downstream flow over N/A ( above 45 ) ...and probable cold sustaining.  It could be west in a -PNA, but circumstantially ... this is not a newly arriving EPO. It becomes more of a back-loading scenario.  I think the deposition of the NAO discussed below is likely related to that concept

That, while there is a subtle but important +d(PNA) between the 6 and the 9th. The index only moves about .5, but A, it is the scalar behavior that is important, less the scalar value. It is an upward movement spanning that period of time. And B, it probably is doing that at all because ens members see the smaller scaled min passing through the eastern mid latitude continent.  In all, these aspect send an interesting wave signal down what is likely a suppressed polar boundary due to the antecedent cold bias already in place.  

Lastly, the interesting aspect is the NAO, 'where the hell have you been...'   It's suddenly -d(NAO).  Granted, of all three, it is the less confident beacon do to the intrinsic assholiness of that index.  For the time being, a dropping NAO tends to move the storm track from the eastern GL to S of NE. It's a taken FWIW addendum.  

We pretty much see this already manifesting in the operational guidance, anyway, but with all these larger inputs ... lends to the notion that this could become a thing. The EPS/GEFs ens means, albeit weak for the time being, have a cyclone signal at 230+ hours now E of the Del Marva.  I picture this more as a narrowed but possibly more significant player though.   So much for not getting detailed. LOL

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is the kind of pattern the next couple weeks where Dendy gets 1-2 feet , Ray gets 4” and CT to Scooter sees coatings at ends 

If I was a betting man that’s what I’d put my money on as of now, just need that cold to press a bit more … 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 9th is attempting emergence. What I suspect would become a multi regional concern for the east/northeastern U.S.    

Too far out in time for specific goodies. I am aware there's also an overrunning type/SW flow set up for the 6th to get through first, but frankly ... the 9th-ish is just more interesting to me.  This is still primitive so let's not get carried away, but there are recent subtle changes among the various key teleconnectors. Alone they would likely be dismissed, but taken in aggregate, and combining the circumstantial hemisphere, the signal bears some meaning.  

For 2-3 days there is a local -EPO nadir, beyond which the index is collapsing in the outlook from all three EPS/GEFs/GEPs.  This flags hesitance to really alter the NE Pacific's influencing the downstream flow over N/A ( above 45 ) ...and probable cold sustaining.  It could be west in a -PNA, but circumstantially ... this is not a newly arriving EPO. It becomes more of a back-loading scenario.  I think the deposition of the NAO discussed below is likely related to that concept

That, while there is a subtle but important +d(PNA) between the 6 and the 9th. The index only moves about .5, but A, it is the scalar behavior that is important, less the scalar value. It is an upward movement spanning that period of time. And B, it probably is doing that at all because ens members see the smaller scaled min passing through the eastern mid latitude continent.  In all, these aspect send an interesting wave signal down what is likely a suppressed polar boundary due to the antecedent cold bias already in place.  

Lastly, the interesting aspect is the NAO, 'where the hell have you been...'   It's suddenly -d(NAO).  Granted, of all three, it is the less confident beacon do to the intrinsic assholiness of that index.  For the time being, a dropping NAO tends to move the storm track from the eastern GL to S of NE. It's a taken FWIW addendum.  

We pretty much see this already manifesting in the operational guidance, anyway, but with all these larger inputs ... it could become a thing. The EPS/GEFs ens means, albeit weak for the time being, have a cyclone signal at 230+ hours now E of the Del Marva.  I picture this more as a narrowed but possibly more significant player though.   So much for not getting detailed. LOL

 Good signal, showing up on EPS already this far out.. 

 

[512high]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 Good signal, showing up on EPS already this far out.. 

 

Gun shy, however, I would take that and so would everyone else.....hell, I would take 25% of that and be happy compared to what we have been getting if you will. Ty Tip/Sey-more.

[ineedsnow]

lets get a ice storm  for @Damage In Tolland

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

lets get a ice storm  for @Damage In Tolland

I think someone at some point is getting a siggy ice deal. 

[CoastalWx]

And someone will be having outdoor dining.  Don’t assault me like yesterday. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lets get a ice storm  for @Damage In Tolland

That would be a dream come true. But it won’t be anyone south the pike . This is going to be excruciating the next few weeks watching CNE on north cashing in . These are the worst patterns to me . I won’t see any snow or ice other than brief at onset or end 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That would be a dream come true. But it won’t be anyone south the pike . This is going to be excruciating the next few weeks watching CNE on north cashing in . These are the worst patterns to me . I won’t see any snow or ice other than brief at onset or end 

I'm hoping for you.. your elevation will help with some of these storms I think.. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

On what, the GFS? I hope you're not surprised... IT should have been called the CFS, Craps Forecasting System. As far as I'm concerned it's useless as tits on a bull past day 4

Well, we just had the king resident troll post a 16 day(384hr) temp prog from the Gfs Op on the previous page….sad but true. Talk about trolling to the enth degree.  Talk about BEYOND ridiculous.  

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And someone will be having outdoor dining.  Don’t assault me like yesterday. 

These very recent overnight various runs, en masse, attempting to suppress the warm signal - not removing it ... I mean, literally sitting on it like the playground bully.  It's there, but slowly losing oxygen as the cold sits on it. 

The NE Pac just won't relent. The models seem to be really bit into some variant notion of Newton's First Law of Motion, "..an object in motion will continue moving at a constant speed in a straight line unless acted upon by an external force..."  

The models think the warm signal must be insufficient as an external force enough to change the preexisting state, huh.

LOL

We'll see if all has legs but ..it's getting harder to fight the cold winning idea.  I've had the rug pulled on "convincing signals" this season a couple of times, so yeah.. keeping that in mind, too

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That would be a dream come true. But it won’t be anyone south the pike . This is going to be excruciating the next few weeks watching CNE on north cashing in . These are the worst patterns to me . I won’t see any snow or ice other than brief at onset or end 

It's not much ice though.   Your dystopian, "super ethically responsible minded dream ..."  necessarily is for > 1.5" accretion.   

So you just dreamed for a boning.  Nice goin'