HoarfrostHubb Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago It's just incredibly boring. No real warm days, few cold days, and those are generally nothing super cold. No decent storms Reminds me a bit of 2015-2016 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It's just incredibly boring. No real warm days, few cold days, and those are generally nothing super cold. No decent storms Reminds me a bit of 2015-2016 That's the thing with cold...it sucks. It doesn't have to be 5F to suck. 20's with a breeze sucks, 30's with a breeze sucks. Not only that but it gets old after a while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Anytime you see that large area of -20 to -30c 850 temps painted near the Canadian border, I’ve always instinctively bet against any sustained warmups. Yeah, a 65F warm sector in a cutter can def happen in these SE ridge patterns, but that authentically arctic air being so close always seems to find a way back in here fairly quickly. Unfortunately (and you already know this)…that doesn’t mean we’re gonna get a bunch of snow events either. Could just go cold—-> cutter warm sector—->arctic front….rinse and repeat. Yes, most of these events will be messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: My first winter back up here near ORH as a very young snow weenie was 1988-89…horrific for snowfall. But it was pretty cold. Awful combo. There were others before that in the ‘80s. That was an odd year...strong Nina that peaked in like July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Let’s lock in Feb 8-9 on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Remember 89 well…we had a shot at one big storm in February, and it shit the bed the morning of..and went OTS south..it was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Euro does have some overrunning snow/ice (eventually changes to light rain) for Feb 5-6. But it’s not a particularly juiced system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago just for the sake of argument, the ECMWF shows why 500mb ridges in the east along with a -EPO don't really portend a lack of wintry weather... the E US is actually under an anomalous 500mb ridge here, but there's enough HP to the north to lock in colder air and lead to a heavy snow event 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this same exact trend has shown itself like three times already this winter in the D7-10 range with guidance underdoing the strength of the Pacific jet Said this yesterday….but was told the big warmth was coming lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, WinterWolf said: Said this yesterday….but was told the big warmth was coming lol. I don’t think we should blindly discount a couple super warm days though either…to the point to mocking the idea…that’s parakeets and flamingos if you end up south of that gradient. But I’ve thought for a while that it could be a lot of back and forth…we catch a warm sector (maybe), but mixed with arctic shots and probably some legit threats mixed in too. But anyone saying we’re definitely going to be cold or definitely going to torch at this point is probably full of crap… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: just for the sake of argument, the ECMWF shows why 500mb ridges in the east along with a -EPO don't really portend a lack of wintry weather... the E US is actually under an anomalous 500mb ridge here, but there's enough HP to the north to lock in colder air and lead to a heavy snow event could be a situation where "pretty colors" at H5 don't tell the whole story with low lvl cold nearby .. all about timing and getting something to actually break "right" for once this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I don’t think we should blindly discount a couple super warm days though either…to the point to mocking the idea…that’s parakeets and flamingos if you end up south of that gradient. But I’ve thought for a while that it could be a lot of back and forth…we catch a warm sector (maybe), but mixed with arctic shots and probably some legit threats mixed in too. But anyone saying we’re definitely going to be cold or definitely going to torch at this point is probably full of crap… Well that was my point…I was being told the big warmth was coming, and countered it with that the warmth all season has become muted as we close in. Don’t doubt some milder days. But the cold is around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don’t think we should blindly discount a couple super warm days though either…to the point to mocking the idea…that’s parakeets and flamingos if you end up south of that gradient. But I’ve thought for a while that it could be a lot of back and forth…we catch a warm sector (maybe), but mixed with arctic shots and probably some legit threats mixed in too. But anyone saying we’re definitely going to be cold or definitely going to torch at this point is probably full of crap… Yeah the upcoming pattern is one that isn't definitively cold or warm and more rollercoaster like. I kind of like the period of 10th-20th but we're going to be setting up a hell of a battle ground in terms of north-south temperature gradient across the country and we look to be right along that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: could be a situation where "pretty colors" at H5 don't tell the whole story with low lvl cold nearby .. all about timing and getting something to actually break "right" for once this year I remember...maybe it was 2016 or 2017 or 2018...one of those years, they had like extremely anomalous +500 height anomalies across the central U.S. but they had a stout Arctic high and were breaking cold records left and right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Euro tries for a little Sandbar Scott on the 7th. Could easily end up more wedged, but warm verbatim. Monday also looks sneaky downslope dandy-ish. Probably see a few 50F in the warm spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well that was my point…I was being told the big warmth was coming, and countered it with that the warmth all season has become muted as we close in. Don’t doubt some milder days. But the cold is around. The difference being this time around though is that the ridge earlier up to now extended to California, that looks like it could change, which then increases the chances of stuff being well not so favorable here. I’m not saying that’s my forecast to go super torch like some are, I was just sharing a legit concern that I had. If you had a gun to my head, I certainly acknowledge the cold, and I acknowledge that we could potentially be on the good side… But yeah, that’s just a worry I had. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don’t think we should blindly discount a couple super warm days though either…to the point to mocking the idea…that’s parakeets and flamingos if you end up south of that gradient. But I’ve thought for a while that it could be a lot of back and forth…we catch a warm sector (maybe), but mixed with arctic shots and probably some legit threats mixed in too. But anyone saying we’re definitely going to be cold or definitely going to torch at this point is probably full of crap… Monday looks to have 45-50 to the Canadian border as an example 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Monday looks to have 45-50 to the Canadian border as an example Definitely not .. to Mass border for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well that was my point…I was being told the big warmth was coming, and countered it with that the warmth all season has become muted as we close in. Don’t doubt some milder days. But the cold is around. You said no way to 67 that it will be 48 instead lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Definitely not .. to Mass border for sure Isn’t that the Canadian border if you’re Kevin? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: LOL. Your comment about not knowing what I was talking about spurred me to make a wise ass comment. It’s all good. I was just expressing disagreement RE the idea of a very warm month...that's all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Looks like 12z EPS less ridgy in the east. I just have PTSD from these hang back troughs in the SWUS. I don't want to see the ensemble mean with the trough scrotum over the southwest. Anything but that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like 12z EPS less ridgy in the east. I just have PTSD from these hang back troughs in the SWUS. I don't want to see the ensemble mean with the trough scrotum over the southwest. Anything but that. honestly, I would sign up for this even down here. the Greenland ridging nosing in is also a nice touch. not even a SE ridge here... more of a weak WAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: honestly, I would sign up for this even down here. the Greenland ridging nosing in is also a nice touch. not even a SE ridge here... more of a weak WAR Yeah it's better if that is the end result. Just no thanks to those blues going towards the LA Basin which was the reason for my morning post. I know we have to play with fire, but there are some looks that are favorable to do that, and some that aren't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 33 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Definitely not .. to Mass border for sure A lot of guidance had 40’s waay north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: A lot of guidance had 40’s waay north AI Euro has warm temps pretty far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I don’t think we should blindly discount a couple super warm days though either…to the point to mocking the idea…that’s parakeets and flamingos if you end up south of that gradient. But I’ve thought for a while that it could be a lot of back and forth…we catch a warm sector (maybe), but mixed with arctic shots and probably some legit threats mixed in too. But anyone saying we’re definitely going to be cold or definitely going to torch at this point is probably full of crap… My take exactly!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: My first winter back up here near ORH as a very young snow weenie was 1988-89…horrific for snowfall. But it was pretty cold. Awful combo. There were others before that in the ‘80s. 88-89 was total meh in Gardiner, where we then living, nothing big, lots of messy but weak storms. Highlight of that snow season was 1.8" the night of Oct 8-9, the earliest 1"+ event I've seen, by nearly 2 weeks (10/21 at Fort Kent). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 55 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You said no way to 67 that it will be 48 instead lol. Ya..48 ain’t big warmth pal. 67 is in Jen or Feb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya..48 ain’t big warmth pal. 67 is in Jen or Feb. Lets try for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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