February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Scooter and Ray fighting…deep winter of 24/25 rolls on. 

I love how when you post about concerns is considered melts needing a break, etc. I’m just posting what I see. I guess we just ignore it now through the 10th though.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, kdxken said:

You need a break.

Why is it that only people with dissenting points of views on winter and /or a pattern need a break??????

[UnitedWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Scott is frustrated and allowing that to amplify the recency bias.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Why is it that only people with dissenting points of views on winter and /or a pattern need a break??????

It’s not like I came in here canceling winter and melting like snowcrazed and yelling at Jerry calling him an old man.

 

Here’s something positive, the GEFS look better than the EPS. Feet of snow coming.

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS likes Sunday night 

That’s another north side of Route 2 deal and then it melts away in 45-50 Monday. Exactly like the one this week 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s not like I came in here canceling winter and melting like snowcrazed and yelling at Jerry calling him an old man.

 

Here’s something positive, the GEFS look better than the EPS. Feet of snow coming.

The bolded just may get you back in their good graces...

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Scooter and Ray fighting…deep winter of 24/25 rolls on. 

The two Bahston boys engaged in a very serious sword fight.. (close in to each other if you catch the drift) 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love how when you post about concerns is considered melts needing a break, etc. I’m just posting what I see. I guess we just ignore it now through the 10th though.

Yea. We are a circus. I see the same concerns mid month. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Man ...that's a wildly storm prone D10 ..12 operational GFS complexion out there on this 12z run.  

It's just got all kinds of embedded wave interference issues, otherwise that'd likely host something.

But, it's one run and long way off in the distance -

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. We are a circus. I see the same concerns mid month. 

I see plenty of concerns prior to 2/10 too. That said, I’m def more “bullish” mid and late February than probably most people are. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man ...that's a wildly storm prone D10 ..12 operational GFS complexion out there on this 12z run.  

It's just got all kinds of embedded wave interference issues, otherwise that'd likely host something.

But, it's one run and long way off in the distance -

Yeah we pop a western ridge in there which could get something more coastal into the picture versus overrunning/SWFE threats. We’d obviously want to see more support for that. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I see plenty of concerns prior to 2/10 too. That said, I’m def more “bullish” mid and late February than probably most people are. 

Oh I am concerned down here prior to 2/10. Basically, all month.
 

Looks better for the pikers. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love how when you post about concerns is considered melts needing a break, etc. I’m just posting what I see. I guess we just ignore it now through the 10th though.

Well, when I expressed skepticism about the post that you had apparently made in jest, you dismissed me by telling me to look at a model. When Will expressed skepticism, you simply told him it was a joke. I think your communication style was the crux of the issue, as opposed to any reluctancy on my part to be objective. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Don't sleep on a SSW, either.

[Typhoon Tip]

Seems the pattern change is being pushed back...   this is nearing the ides of the month (blw).  But, if we go back a week, the GHD system ( which become tomorrow, sped up by flow correction/compression ), was supposed to be a sort of last hurrah on the cold intraseasonal pattern, then balm by the end of next week.  Now, it looks like we're negotiating a Feb 6th wintry system, and this below is pushed to after?   I'm not a big fan of can-kicking in the models.  I think the model in question needs to put up or shut up, in the sense that it can't be trusted.   I don't doubt that the pattern may ( or not ) change, but the guess as to "when" becomes hugely problematic..

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't sleep on a SSW, either.

yeah it appears there's an emerging signal for the 6th;  it would likely be in that area of the storm spectrum given the -PNA , after 2 or 3 days of -EPO loading.  Statistically, cutting is always a risk.  But the continent is like so deeply pre-prepped with cold air, it's going to slope the system toward triple point tendencies... 

heh, assuming it's real - let's get that ironed out.

[TrueBlue]

3 hours ago, TheMainer said:

I always feel bad for the SNE guys when it rains down there, but besides remote workers (myself included) and the couple mills that are left this area relies heavily on winter tourism which is primarily snowmobiling. Another year of poor registrations and I think you'll see more clubs start to fold as it's mostly volunteers that are aging out. Whenever dryslot or dendrite is happy usually we are too. 

Brickyard Hollow closed their Eustis location last Saturday night. Lack of sleds methinks.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh I am concerned down here prior to 2/10. Basically, all month.
 

Looks better for the pikers. 

At least normally when we rat, it isn’t super cold. 
 

this is a new kind of suck, relative to what we’ve experienced.

Filled my propane tank for over $1200 bucks in October and now about to fill it again with propane over $4 a gallon. Pain

[ROOSTA]

BIG DOG IS COMING!
It's there, we just don't see it yet.

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

At least normally when we rat, it isn’t super cold. 
 

 

Those of us that are older would quite disagree. Nothing new about this to me, and several of them that I remember were colder than this!

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah it appears there's an emerging signal for the 6th;  it would likely be in that are of the storm spectrum given the -PNA , after 2 or 3 days of -EPO loading.  Statistically, cutting is always a risk.  But the continent is like so deeply pre-prepped with cold air, it's going to slope the system toward triple point tendencies... 

heh, assuming it's real - let's get that ironed out.

Anytime you see that large area of -20 to -30c 850 temps painted near the Canadian border, I’ve always instinctively bet against any sustained warmups. Yeah, a 65F warm sector in a cutter can def happen in these SE ridge patterns, but that authentically arctic air being so close always seems to find a way back in here fairly quickly.  
 

Unfortunately (and you already know this)…that doesn’t mean we’re gonna get a bunch of snow events either. Could just go cold—-> cutter warm sector—->arctic front….rinse and repeat. 

[dryslot]

39 minutes ago, TrueBlue said:

Brickyard Hollow closed their Eustis location last Saturday night. Lack of sleds methinks.

I was not up there, It was last Friday night, But the 3 guys i ride with were in the restaurant and had ordered dinner when they were informed by the mngr that the cook had walked off the job about 30 mins prior and that they were closing the doors at the end of the night and they were never served,. Sacrificed that location for the one they opened on Surgarloaf Mtn in the old Gepetto's location.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

Those of us that are older would quite disagree. Nothing new about this to me, and several of them that I remember were colder than this!

My first winter back up here near ORH as a very young snow weenie was 1988-89…horrific for snowfall. But it was pretty cold. Awful combo. There were others before that in the ‘80s. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anytime you see that large area of -20 to -30c 850 temps painted near the Canadian border, I’ve always instinctively bet against any sustained warmups. Yeah, a 65F warm sector in a cutter can def happen in these SE ridge patterns, but that authentically arctic air being so close always seems to find a way back in here fairly quickly.  
 

Unfortunately (and you already know this)…that doesn’t mean we’re gonna get a bunch of snow events either. Could just go cold—-> cutter warm sector—->arctic front….rinse and repeat. 

Just brutal for the emotional side of this engagement.  Frustration at an all-time high considering we just spent like 6 consecutive weeks with enough cold air to fill 10 seasons with blizzards; then, suffer that kind of defeat this late in the season?!  That would be proof that it is time to put all this quantum computing AI to the task of figuring out how to get humanity to at last leave this planet.   haha

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems the pattern change is being pushed back...   this is nearing the ides of the month (blw).  But, if we go back a week, the GHD system ( which become tomorrow, sped up by flow correction/compression ), was supposed to be a sort of last hurrah on the cold intraseasonal pattern, then balm by the end of next week.  Now, it looks like we're negotiating a Feb 6th wintry system, and this below is pushed to after?   I'm not a big fan of can-kicking in the models.  I think the model in question needs to put up or shut up, in the sense that it can't be trusted.   I don't doubt that the pattern may ( or not ) change, but the guess as to "when" becomes hugely problematic..

this same exact trend has shown itself like three times already this winter in the D7-10 range with guidance underdoing the strength of the Pacific jet

[TrueBlue]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I was not up there, It was last Friday night, But the 3 guys i ride with were in the restaurant and had ordered dinner when the were informed by the mngr that the cook had walked off the job about 30 mins prior and that they were closing the doors at the end of the night and they were never served,. Sacrificed that location for the one they opened on Surgarloaf Mtn in the old Gepetto's location.

Another couple that we ski with were there and had ordered their dinner when the bartender came over and said the cook walked out same situation. I don’t know how busy the Sugarloaf location has been either as I have not frequent that spot as of yet.

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, when I expressed skepticism about the post that you had apparently made in jest, you dismissed me by telling me to look at a model. When Will expressed skepticism, you simply told him it was a joke. I think your communication style was the crux of the issue, as opposed to any reluctancy on my part to be objective. 

LOL. Your comment about not knowing what I was talking about spurred me to make a wise ass comment. It’s all good. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this same exact trend has shown itself like three times already this winter in the D7-10 range with guidance underdoing the strength of the Pacific jet

yeah perhaps.

I'm noticing also that the EPO domain keeps reformulating into the negative mode.  It's been a very dependable correction -

This time, the PNA is much more negative comparing to early in the season ( index outlooks ) so it'll be interesting to see how that part of it evolves.

I remember posting about the EPO last week, tho, and I still feel the same.   So long as the EPO/Alaskan sector keeps building mountains, the down slope valley is going to make sustained warmth ( at minimum) a model error prone, speed shearing compression shit show.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anytime you see that large area of -20 to -30c 850 temps painted near the Canadian border, I’ve always instinctively bet against any sustained warmups. Yeah, a 65F warm sector in a cutter can def happen in these SE ridge patterns, but that authentically arctic air being so close always seems to find a way back in here fairly quickly.  
 

Unfortunately (and you already know this)…that doesn’t mean we’re gonna get a bunch of snow events either. Could just go cold—-> cutter warm sector—->arctic front….rinse and repeat. 

That’s what my concern is about.  Your last sentence. Just reminds me of those looks. Maybe it’s more messy systems, but same idea. It would just be nice to have even a 10-14 day stretch where we put a run together. I want arguing winter cancel or anything like that. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s what my concern is about.  Your last sentence. Just reminds me of those looks. Maybe it’s more messy systems, but same idea. It would just be nice to have even a 10-14 day stretch where we put a run together. I want arguing winter cancel or anything like that. 

Lock it in.