February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously I was joking about outdoor seating on 2/14. I'm surprised that somehow was interpreted at factual.

 

I don't know..that orientation scares me. Seems like we've seen that last couple of winters. I don't debate up to the 10th has a chance. 

I don’t think we’ve had any cold up north the last couple winters. Every single time either Canada was completely torched or the cold was well west in Canada with no cold east of Manitoba. 
 

That’s the biggest difference I see compared to +4 and +5 Januarys/Februarys of recent years. It still might not work out…but I’m always doing Bruce Willis on big warmth when the cold-loading looks like that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously I was joking about outdoor seating on 2/14. I'm surprised that somehow was interpreted at factual.

 

I don't know..that orientation scares me. Seems like we've seen that last couple of winters. I don't debate up to the 10th has a chance. 

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because it seemed like you didn’t even see that look as being potentially warm. Clearly it is on guidance.

I originally responded to the sentiment that you have already admitted was not serious....outdoor seating INVO VD Day....not an above average look in general. Stop moving the goalposts in an effort to conceal the fact that you need a break.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

WxBell is 91-20 climo and TT is 81-10 climo, hence the discrepancy

Still seems off because TT is like +1.5 to +2C warmer which is definitely not the difference between those two climo periods. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't see how we end up with exotically warm monthly departures with an ample cold supply so near by, which has not been the case in other recent seasons. Scott is frustrated and allowing that to amplify the recency bias.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I originally responded to the sentiment that you have already admitted was not serious....outdoor seating INVO VD Day....not an above average look in general. Stop moving the goalposts in an effort to conceal the fact that you need a break.

You don’t have to retort about needing a break because I post about something potentially warm. All I said was I don’t like the look. Not sure why some are having a hard time. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see how we end up with exotically warm monthly departures with an ample cold supply so near by, which has not been the case in other recent seasons. Scott is frustrated and allowing that to amplify the recency bias.

I think you need to reread what I posted.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see how we end up with exotically warm monthly departures with an ample cold supply so near by, which has not been the case in other recent seasons. Scott is frustrated and allowing that to amplify the recency bias.

I don’t think anyone will care regardless if it doesn’t snow. We could get a +2 February but 25” of snow and everyone will say what a great month it was…or it could be a +1 or neutral February with 4” of snow for the month and everyone will say “see? I told you it sucked” 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see how we end up with exotically warm monthly departures with an ample cold supply so near by, which has not been the case in other recent seasons. Scott is frustrated and allowing that to amplify the recency bias.

I think NoP will have a decent month snowfall wise even with AN temps. Looks less fruitful for SoP…

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You don’t have to retort about needing a break because I post about something potentially warm. All I said was I don’t like the look. Not sure why some are having a hard time. 

Again....above average or warm is one thing, implying exotic departures is another....and THAT is what I disagree with.

Just take the L, dude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think NoP will have a decent month snowfall wise even with AN temps. Looks less fruitful for SoP…

Maybe it will suck ...I just don't see an exotically warm month in the mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think anyone will care regardless if it doesn’t snow. We could get a +2 February but 25” of snow and everyone will say what a great month it was…or it could be a +1 or neutral February with 4” of snow for the month and everyone will say “see? I told you it sucked” 

Absolutely.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again....above average or warm is one thing, implying exotic departures is another....and THAT is what I disagree with.

Just take the L, dude.

Because I joked about outdoor seating?  Come on dude.  You’re better than that.

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see how we end up with exotically warm monthly departures with an ample cold supply so near by, which has not been the case in other recent seasons. Scott is frustrated and allowing that to amplify the recency bias.

yeah, not torching with the TPV in Canada and a stout -EPO. looks active with cold nearby. might have to eat a cutter to set up another wave, but it's active and i'll roll the dice on it even down here

[ORH_wxman]

We’re def getting a monster KU on like March 26th after everyone has thrown in the towel and done with winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Outdoor seating by Valentines Day?

 

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not sure what Scooter is talking about with the picnic weather vibe

 

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m def not fully aligned with tulips and mild wx…we have a deeply -EPO which can produce warm episodes if we wind up to the east of a system…often very warm at that…but I don’t see it sustained at all. The EPO cold-loads Canada so it doesn’t take much to bring arctic air back into here.
 

We get one or two runs where the models flex the SE ridge into Quebec and all of the sudden I’m supposed to believe it? Eh…I’ll believe it when I see it much closer.

Again, not talking about a 1 day 60-65F warm sector either…those can happen easily if you cut a system to Detroit or BUF in this pattern. But I’m not throwing in the towel on winter wx the rest of the month…as much as I might want to old-yeller this winter. 

 

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Obviously I was joking about outdoor seating on 2/14. I'm surprised that somehow was interpreted at factual.

 

I don't know..that orientation scares me. Seems like we've seen that last couple of winters. I don't debate up to the 10th has a chance. 

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you need to reread what I posted.

What did I miss?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, not torching with the TPV in Canada and a stout -EPO. looks active with cold nearby. might have to eat a cutter to set up another wave, but it's active and i'll roll the dice on it even down here

I don’t think anybody doubts Canada is cold, but what good is that if that dumps into the plains. My whole point and I don’t know why people are going stupid over it, is that I’m not a fan of that look. That’s all.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

 

What did I miss?

Where did I imply other than joking about outdoor seating on Valentine’s Day about an exotic warm look in February. Please point out directly. All I said was that I’m concerned about the look. I don’t like it. It’s from a snow point of view after the 10th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think anybody doubts Canada is cold, but what good is that if that dumps into the plains. My whole point and I don’t know why people are going stupid over it, is that I’m not a fan of that look. That’s all.

Who?? That seems to me like it may be prohibitive to exotically warm monthly departures...that is all.

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re def getting a monster KU on like March 26th after everyone has thrown in the towel and done with winter. 

Yup, perfect fit for the vibe

[CoastalWx]

If you ask my opinion about Snow, I think we have chances until the 10th. After that sure maybe it works out, but personally right now not a fan of it.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think anybody doubts Canada is cold, but what good is that if that dumps into the plains. My whole point and I don’t know why people are going stupid over it, is that I’m not a fan of that look. That’s all.

..it is because it isn't what they want to "hear"...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Where did I imply other than joking about outdoor seating on Valentine’s Day about an exotic warm look in February. Please point out directly. All I said was that I’m concerned about the look. I don’t like it. I to a from a snow point of view after the 10th.

That is the one post I referenced....why not just admit you were joking, instead of sarcastically telling me to look at a model. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe it will suck ...I just don't see an exotically warm month in the mean.

Maybe. We just don’t know. 

[CoastalWx]

Maybe since all the other looks  I liked have done jack shit, the ones I don’t like will produce.

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, not torching with the TPV in Canada and a stout -EPO. looks active with cold nearby. might have to eat a cutter to set up another wave, but it's active and i'll roll the dice on it even down here

I can see a 70 degree day in NYC

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the one post I referenced....why not just admit you were joking, instead of sarcastically telling me to look at a model. 

Baby keep you up all night?

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pivotal 12z GFS seems stuck at 60

The way it performs long range, just let it stay stuck there. No real reason to go much further in this pattern

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Scooter and Ray fighting…deep winter of 24/25 rolls on. 

[kdxken]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You don’t have to retort about needing a break because I post about something potentially warm. All I said was I don’t like the look. Not sure why some are having a hard time. 

You need a break.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Kevin isn’t here, so I will post it for him:

”Fight, fight, fight!!!”