February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Feb 2015, no.....but its not going to be 2018, either.

[dendrite]

The coldest month of our lives is currently…

BDL +1.1
ORH -0.1
BOS -1.1

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The coldest month of our lives is currently…

BDL +1.1
ORH -0.1
BOS -1.1

Good thing it's still ORH season.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think it does in the 11-15 day. Just hope next week works out. 

Me too. Will said it looked almost the snowiest it’s looked all season….obviously that doesn’t guarantee Jack shit…but just commenting how it looks now is what I meant.  And any warm trends have been muted this season as we close in…so theres that to consider. 

[radarman]

local coops, with records that go back pretty far, were ~ -1 for Dec and will be ~ -1 for Jan.  We take.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Me too. Will said it looked almost the snowiest it’s looked all season….obviously that doesn’t guarantee Jack shit…but just commenting how it looks now is what I meant.  And any warm trends have been muted this season as we close in…so tees that to consider. 

Yeah that's helped us a lot.       

Maybe something between the 6th to 10th....but I don't get that feeling of "yeah we need to watch this.."  Usually if there is a good signal we certainly talk about it. I'm just being a straight shooter. Trust me, nobody more than me wants/needs this as a distraction. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Me too. Will said it looked almost the snowiest it’s looked all season….obviously that doesn’t guarantee Jack shit…but just commenting how it looks now is what I meant.  And any warm trends have been muted this season as we close in…so tees that to consider. 

GEFS and EPS are very snowy from Superbowl Sunday on for all of New England not including the 2-3 snow threats before then for CNE and NNE... We will see if we can cash in... 850 anomalies were posted here is the surface anomaly for the same time period.. Maybe some freezing rain threats after a few snow threats near and after super bowl Sunday? We will see how it all plays out.  Climo is on our side and the pattern for is not horrible..  But it's easy to see all of these threats being plain rain for a good chunk of SNE..

 

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that's helped us a lot.       

Maybe something between the 6th to 10th....but I don't get that feeling of "yeah we need to watch this.."  Usually if there is a good signal we certainly talk about it. I'm just being a straight shooter. Trust me, nobody more than me wants/needs this as a distraction. 

You know better than me, that snowfall is incredibly nuanced…the cold has been here..just couldn’t cash in. Shit happens. 
 

And It was just that yours and Will’s  posts were not close…so obviously you both are seeing different things this morning.  
 

Anyway, I think we’ll have more chances this month.  Maybe we strike out again.  At this point I’m good with NNE getting it for my interests. But it would be nice if we could all share in the fun too. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS and EPS are very snowy from Superbowl Sunday on for all of New England not including the 2-3 snow threats before then for CNE and NNE... We will see if we can cash in... 850 anomalies were posted here is the surface anomaly for the same time period.. Maybe some freezing rain threats after a few snow threats near and after super bowl Sunday? We will see how it all plays out.  Climo is on our side and the pattern for is not horrible..  But it's easy to see all of these threats being plain rain for a good chunk of SNE..

 

 

Weeniebell's temp anomalies aren't really telling a good picture. TT has a better scale.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You know better than me, that snowfall is incredibly nuanced…the cold has been here..just couldn’t cash in. Shit happens. 
 

And It was just that yours and Will’s  posts were not close…so obviously you both are seeing different things this morning.  
 

Anyway, I think we’ll have more chances this month.  Maybe we strike out again.  At this point I’m good with NNE getting it for my interests. But it would be nice if we could all share in the fun too. 

I don't mind it up until the 10th or so. After that I don't like it. That's all I am saying. I don't know why that is being argued. It's JMO.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe if the voodoo MJO is right we get some more +PNA action in March?

[SouthCoastMA]

I'd be somewhat intrigued by this pattern if I didn't live in Sandwich, MA, Cape Cod, United States.

Still, hard to get too invested until something promising is showing within 4-5 days, given the winter so far. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't mind it up until the 10th or so. After that I don't like it. That's all I am saying. I don't know why that is being argued. It's JMO.

Fair enough. Glass half full/half empty depending on how one sees it.  I get it. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe if the voodoo MJO is right we get some more +PNA action in March?

Yay….march snow 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeniebell's temp anomalies aren't really telling a good picture. TT has a better scale.

How is that? Is there evidence showing one is more accurate? Even TT isn't nearly as wild for the surface anomaly as it is at 850mb.. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Fair enough. Glass half full/half empty depending on how one sees it.  I get it. 

But that suggests a bias in interpretation. I'm not being biased. Not a huge fan of that orientation. Maybe it works out, it's happened before.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'd be somewhat intrigued by this pattern if I didn't live in Sandwich, MA, Cape Cod, United States.

Still, hard to get too invested until something promising is showing within 4-5 days, given the winter so far. 

What a James post... I miss how he used to describe his location every single time

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

How is that? Is there evidence showing one is more accurate? Even TT isn't nearly as wild for the surface anomaly as it is at 850mb.. 

No, I mean apples to apples. Was looking at srfc T anomalies.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

No, I mean apples to apples. Was looking at srfc T anomalies.

I see you'd just expect more surface anomaly based on the upper air pattern.. 

[tamarack]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The coldest month of our lives is currently…

BDL +1.1
ORH -0.1
BOS -1.1

For those who haven't reached the age of 3.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I see you'd just expect more surface anomaly based on the upper air pattern.. 

No I mean compare. 

[Typhoon Tip]

At least as far as the NAM's old fashion FOUS product, the grid is all snow at Logan on this 12z run.   I realize some don't know what these numbers mean. I've written the definitions out before, but it doesn't seem to get learned so - if anyone wants to know, just ask and I'll answer directly.

42041987425 04615 080315 42009899  
48009967111 -0813 110216 34009595   
54001763526 -0823 193409 31999290

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, radarman said:

local coops, with records that go back pretty far, were ~ -1 for Dec and will be ~ -1 for Jan.  We take.

There’s been a few giving the impression that it’s been yore for cold and I’ve just found it overblown. COOP normals adjust too so considering the decadal bumps it’s been fairly seasonable. The 70s and 80s would’ve laughed at this month. The cold definitely seemed biased toward the rad pits though. BDL should probably be -0.5ish because of the warm bias. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No I mean compare. 

Ya thats what I meant, I looked after you said it, it's still not as wild as the 850 anomalies, who knows which one is right.  Based on upper air you'd argue TT.  But who knows what surface features will be there at that time .. 

[radarman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

At least as far as the NAM's old fashion FOUS product, the grid is all snow at Logan on this 12z run.   I realize some don't know what these numbers mean. I've written the definitions out before, but it doesn't seem to get learned so - if anyone wants to know, just ask and I'll answer directly.

42041987425 04615 080315 42009899  
48009967111 -0813 110216 34009595   
54001763526 -0823 193409 31999290

A good decoding explanation here:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/models/fous/

[Cold Miser]

If March doesn't happen we can always keep kicking the can down the road ...April or May?

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, radarman said:

A good decoding explanation here:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/models/fous/

yeah... it's a coarser look than all these dissection analytic tools that provide all those drill into sub-standard layering and whatever... but I like to use this as a canvas - particularly < 36 hours.  Which this event is not in that range just yet; the numbers may adjust coming into that inner range. 

T1 Temperature in model layer 1 (lowest 35 mb) in degrees Celsius. If temperature is below freezing, it is coded as the difference from 100. i.e. 97 = -3 C, 88 = -12 C
T3 Temperature in model layer 3 (approximately 900 mb).
T5 Temperature in model layer 5 (approximately 800 mb).

...are all at or less than 0C, and this synoptics isn't really placing a 700 mb elevated warm layer, so "as is" this is a snow column at Logan unless there's a some very low level warm layer, but .41 QPF is enough fall rates to overcome that.   Probably west of Boston is no problem relative to these numbers, either way.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I made a sep. thread for the Friday/Saturday rain event

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not sure what Scooter is talking about with the picnic weather vibe

I’m def not fully aligned with tulips and mild wx…we have a deeply -EPO which can produce warm episodes if we wind up to the east of a system…often very warm at that…but I don’t see it sustained at all. The EPO cold-loads Canada so it doesn’t take much to bring arctic air back into here.
 

We get one or two runs where the models flex the SE ridge into Quebec and all of the sudden I’m supposed to believe it? Eh…I’ll believe it when I see it much closer.

Again, not talking about a 1 day 60-65F warm sector either…those can happen easily if you cut a system to Detroit or BUF in this pattern. But I’m not throwing in the towel on winter wx the rest of the month…as much as I might want to old-yeller this winter. 

[radarman]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s been a few giving the impression that it’s been yore for cold and I’ve just found it overblown. COOP normals adjust too so considering the decadal bumps it’s been fairly seasonable. The 70s and 80s would’ve laughed at this month. The cold definitely seemed biased toward the rad pits though. BDL should probably be -0.5ish because of the warm bias. 

Definitely the big cold departure days, 21st to 23rd yeah.  But the first half of the month was super windy out here and we weren't radiating very well at all.  27 high 22 low type days with no precip.  The real feel was more BN than the actual, at least for a while.  Less the 2nd half, but even the last 3 nights have been breezy.