February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[ROOSTA]

29 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Tell that to Kev. He wants a crippling Ice Storm. Lol

Written just for Kev. 
Be careful what you wish for (not political in anyway) and then realize it isn't fun.
Elephant in the room here. 
Can't control it, accept it and move on.

Like, I've always wanted to experience a Major Category Hurricane.
Not anymore.    
 

[Chrisrotary12]

Just piss and vinegar in here. Didn't it snow last night?

[mahk_webstah]

I think it’s gonna snow Friday then again Sunday and then again next Thursday. Should be over a foot in the woods by next weekend if not by Monday.

[512high]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Just piss and vinegar in here. Didn't it snow last night?

2.75" @ 4am Chris , few other lots I have were about 3" temps trying , still at 24F@ exit 5 shop

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Link to your published writing?

I don't know if anyone would really like it?   I am frankly a little insecure about it as it was a first go at novel writing - I feel almost more like 'lucky' the publishing house went with it. 

But I could also be ( admittedly ) imposturing self.   One doesn't necessarily know these things.

I guess here -  it's a dry read at first, as it intermingles some character development with an expose on the "science fiction" created for the story.  What's interesting ...as an aside, the sci fi has since actually been papered by Roger Penrose et al.  As though plausibly more than mere fiction being the implication there - ... quantum mechanics in the emergence of consciousness, only in "Dominion" ( a title I hate but the publishing house insisted - ) it is sort of discovered by accident.  In terms of quality...the feed back I've actually received is varied.  A pattern there...where those that hunger and lust for sci fi seem to love it. Those that just like reading?  they offer advice that it's a compelling idea but needs more time in the mill in terms of prose itself - to which I would never argue that.  I re-read some passages and wish at times it were still on the editing desk -

anyway,

[Hailstoned]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude, I'm totally fuggin with him .. hahaha

Psychology my ass -   

I write as a hobby.   I'm a published author.  Despite other's perceptions of me in that regard, and/or their just loathing in general ... I have a facility for this.   Look, as an art? one is missing a lot of colors on their pallet if they don't "get it" when it comes to the spooky perceptions of others.  

Try character writing in a novel - you'll understand what I mean...   One really is not very good if one does not accuse COPs as having some form or another of suppressed unresolved issues with authority -  

Think I found the title:  "Phase 7 APO Repression-Depression in the Age of Shriveled Weenie Expectations"

Amazon review: " A gripping tale of a tragic string of faux winters that will grab you by the nape of the neck and won't let go till your long johns stick to you signaling its install time."

(O.K. having fun here-- love your stuff even when only a phrase or two here and there breaks through-- plus, the ongoing amusement of "say what?" befuddlement of much of your loyal readership.)

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

Think I found the title:  "Phase 7 APO Repression-Depression in the Age of Shriveled Weenie Expectations"

Amazon review: " A gripping tale of a tragic string of faux winters that will grab you by the nape of the neck and won't let go till your long johns stick to you signaling its install time."

(O.K. having fun here-- love your stuff even when only a phrase or two here and there breaks through-- plus, the ongoing amusement of "say what?" befuddlement of much of your loyal readership.)

Probably should move all this to the banter - too early in a month's coverage to derail a thread.   Haha

[Typhoon Tip]

Anywho back on track re Feb 1

the 12z NAM is like 20 mi S of the current blended rain boning for rt 2 up in N Ma. The model wants to put them back in contention by a very narrow margin for snow.

Actually, question ... I don't normally pay much attention to the ptype graphics.  Is it normal for the mix type qpf regions to be blanked ?

[Typhoon Tip]

I guess look at that again that's just not doing anything.  Man, this thing is weak sauce -

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I guess look at that again that's just not doing anything.  Man, this thing is weak sauce -

The perfectly timed northern stream impulse to replace a building in high pressure with a clipper low perfectly encapsulates the last 2-3 winters…I remember posting an EPS mean in here a few days ago that showed a very nice high pressure building in just ahead of the low which was a strong signal for a cold/snow ptype shift….then it immediately gets taken away by this new northern stream impulse. 
 

[ORH_wxman]

That said, GFS does produce a bit of a leading low that cold tucks the lower levels. Even supports snow for N MA/S NH. But there could be a band of sleet and ZR south of there if that verifies. 

[dryslot]

More nickel/dimes.

[SJonesWX]

how much qpf we talking for the Friday PM event? 

[mahk_webstah]

50 minutes ago, dryslot said:

More nickel/dimes.

Not much enthusiasm for obvious reasons, but if you add up today and last night plus Friday plus Sunday and then maybe with something on the rise a little bit better for later next week, we could be in a nice pack building process.  And then one moderate or heavy storm on top of that would be fantastic.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

how much qpf we talking for the Friday PM event? 

GEFs ens mean looks like about .5" with regions more and less by a couple tenths by mid day Sat. 

[ORH_wxman]

There’s a couple waves beyond Friday to watch. First one is Sunday but it looks fairly small…but can’t rule out a few inches of WAA snow if it pans out. Second potential might be a bit bigger later next week. These are all isentropic/overrunning/WAA type waves…we’re not talking deep coastal cyclogenesis. But if we can tap into a bit of gulf moisture for the one later next week, it could still be significant. We’ve obviously seen some large overrunning events in the past. This one isn’t currently modeled to be huge but worth keeping an eye on within our sea of uninteresting weather. 

[mahk_webstah]

We add up and patiently wait

[DJln491]

that's a big shift on euro for only 2-3 days out. well south and colder.  still doesn't really get CT in on anything but much better for MA

[SJonesWX]

28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We add up and patiently wait

mahk, do you happen to know if the rail trail in your area is open for snowmobiles? i haven;t been out since 2023, need to put some fresh fuel through my sled

[ma blizzard]

5 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

that's a big shift on euro for only 2-3 days out. well south and colder.  still doesn't really get CT in on anything but much better for MA

yeah that was a bit surprising to see a favorable shift from the EURO for once this year  

[ROOSTA]

Watch one huge kick in the nuts.
The last threat will be the biggest snowfall of the winter. Shame the potential threats never produced and by the time it happens visions of Spring will take away the excitement. Outside of a 3' region-wide 24-25 will be caulked up to a waste.    

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

mahk, do you happen to know if the rail trail in your area is open for snowmobiles? i haven;t been out since 2023, need to put some fresh fuel through my sled

 

I don’t know that anything is open except I do see tracks on the rail trail that goes through Boscawen . But it’s a very thin cover of snow. I would think we need a good foot of snow for any real sledding.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is marginal but it’s def cold enough for snow over interior in pike region. It would be pasty but that would likely be several inches. 
 

I’m still skeptical of that solution though. Need more continuity. 

[SJonesWX]

13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

 

I don’t know that anything is open except I do see tracks on the rail trail that goes through Boscawen . But it’s a very thin cover of snow. I would think we need a good foot of snow for any real sledding.

thanks. that trail can be hit or miss, but usually doesn't need a ton of snow as there are no boulders or stumps that need to be covereed up. i wouldn't think about going through a woods trail right now for sure

[weathafella]

If we get another tick in the next 2 cycles we could be ok in the pike region.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

thanks. that trail can be hit or miss, but usually doesn't need a ton of snow as there are no boulders or stumps that need to be covereed up. i wouldn't think about going through a woods trail right now for sure

Doesn't look open.  https://slednh.evtrails.com/#

 

[Layman]

Another minor quake on the coast?

Just had a short loud boom that shook the house.  No rumble or aftershock.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is marginal but it’s def cold enough for snow over interior in pike region. It would be pasty but that would likely be several inches. 
 

I’m still skeptical of that solution though. Need more continuity. 

Looks like MLK nightmare again 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like MLK nightmare again 

From 2010?

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

From 2010?

Yup