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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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SouthCoastMA
SouthCoastMA

One more post like that, feeding time

cleetussnow
cleetussnow
weathafella
weathafella

I am offended by being called old!  78 is the new ….wait I guess I’m old…..

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

18z GEFs corrected the low track dramatically sw some 250 mi for Fri evening … NE ME down to the Ma Pike 

Meanwhile the op version has observed continuity as the the southern outlier … That’s a pretty strong lean in fav of the op … too munch to ignore 

18z oper Euro also S / tho no idea on thermal … looks like snow Rt 2 N with icy mix below then R s o the pike might even be more leery of an eventual total collapse  

…overall these are typical needle thread short side of mid range corrections. But the ens move gives them credence 

Not a major but may approach moderate or low even low end warn along a narrow corridor. 
 

same idea as of overnight guidance but bump everything 50 mi n

Reasonable consensus at this point ...should be a stripe of moderate snows from the N Cap district of eastern NY across S VT/S NH with light QPF challenged mix down to Rt 2 or the maybe the Pike.  The mechanics of this thing are weakening as it is coming through and that should limit the ability to truly scour out the interior of shallow cold despite a low track straight across the area.  

Should about do it for the Feb 1 mystery.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

A little more interesting Friday into early Saturday pike north on gfs and Nam. AI failed and came north as suspected.

The GFS very recently sank to the Pike before bouncing back N 50 or so critical miles over night ...Phew!  spared anyone in SNE the agony of having fun  - the ultimate goal of course.  lol

I'm wondering if the mid and extended range, having a boundary near by with waves every day and half offering 'hope' as Keven just said, may all do this whence arriving into shorter terms.   Last minute CC shuffle   ;)   

I dunno man.   I'm not sure how long I can hold on this particular winter post GHD.  I'm likely to manifest ADHD pretty damn fast

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GFS very recently sank to the Pike before bouncing back N 50 or so critical miles ... sparing anyone in SNE fun  - the ultimate goal of course.  lol

I'm wondering if the mid and extended ranging, having a boundary near by with waves every day and half offering 'hope' as Keven just said, may all do this whence arriving into shorter terms.   Last minute CC shuffle   ;)   

I dunno man.   I'm not sure how long I can hold on this particular winter post GHD.  I'm likely to manifest ADHD pretty damn fast

I’m leaning AN myself. Has that look on the EPS with the trough out west. I’m sure the cold will come in just in time when we dry out after each rain event lol.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m leaning AN myself. Has that look on the EPS with the trough out west. I’m sure the cold will come in just in time when we dry out after each rain event lol.

It has that look for sure. We’ve all been on board that this decade is eerily similar to the jean shorts and mullet era. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m leaning AN myself. Has that look on the EPS with the trough out west. I’m sure the cold will come in just in time when we dry out after each rain event lol.

Did you see the 00z extended op Euro, tho?     ha.

I then compared the op GFS' PNA against the Euro's  - just the single run.   The GFS was about a -2.5 SD index;   the Euro came in +2.5   

5 point swing...  Man, those two models just don't like one another.  War Of The Roses

The EPS mean is like -.25 ... so is lower than the operational's (likely) errant nonsense, but it is also higher than the GEFs.  

Seems like we're already entering the time of seasonal change, already, where the models start daydreaming.  I do see that warming thickness have returned to the south over the longer term means, tho - about 10 days sooner than the 20th century climo, as it probably should. 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

No we don't 

We want snow 

If you really are law enforcement in the NY PD ... you must have a pretty solid resume in the field of suppressed narcissism that ends up masquerading as heavy handed righteousness ...  j/k - I think I heard that line in a movie somewhere years ago.

Anyway, you should maybe opt for life- wellness. To wit psychological health is a huge part of that. Consider sending out your resume to say ... Fryeburg, Maine. 

Yeah, find some place where the soft tourist population of the warm season flees for dear life do to the onset of 'real' winters. You know?  Where the town becomes a barren podunk wagon and outhouse depot, where cops have nothing better to do but to park in ambush and swipe their phones 38 hours a week, and the other 2 ... make quota by pulling the 22 mph over the speed limit folk just trying the get the hell through that miserable sub alpine abandonment.  

Relo to anywhere would be better than jammin' your head and life permanently up the dragon's ass of NYC's rectal heat.  "No we don't" and "We want snow" are head knocking expectations there.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol, Tip, here’s a tip for you, why don’t you go into the psychology field…you spend alot of time analyzing folks.  

Dude, I'm totally fuggin with him .. hahaha

Psychology my ass -   

I write as a hobby.   I'm a published author.  Despite other's perceptions of me in that regard, and/or their just loathing in general ... I have a facility for this.   Look, as an art? one is missing a lot of colors on their pallet if they don't "get it" when it comes to the spooky perceptions of others.  

Try character writing in a novel - you'll understand what I mean...   One really is not very good if one does not accuse COPs as having some form or another of suppressed unresolved issues with authority -  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude, I'm totally fuggin with him .. hahaha

Psychology my ass -   

I write as a hobby.   I'm a published author.  Despite other's perceptions of me in that regard, and/or their just loathing in general ... I have a facility in this regard.   Look, as an art? one is missing a lot of colors on their pallet if they don't "get it" when it comes to the spooky perceptions of others.  

Try character writing in a novel - you'll understand what I mean...   One really is not very good if one does not accuse COPs as having some form or another of suppressed unresolved issues with authority -  

Where can we see your publication. 

You have a issue with police?

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

ICE - BAD
SNOW - GOOD
Repeat after me...

Why would anyone want ICE?
Why would anyone want to lose electricity and in turn power, no heat, no internet, unable to travel to drug, grocery stores?
For how long a day, a week maybe longer?
Once is all it will take. Maybe wanting and getting an ice storm might break the wanting of one.  

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

ICE - BAD
SNOW - GOOD
Repeat after me...

Why would anyone want ICE?
Why would anyone want to lose electricity and in turn power, no heat, no internet, unable to travel to drug, grocery stores?
For how long a day, a week maybe longer?
Once is all it will take. Maybe wanting and getting an ice storm might break the wanting of one.  

Tell that to Kev. He wants a crippling Ice Storm. Lol

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

ICE - BAD
SNOW - GOOD
Repeat after me...

Why would anyone want ICE?
Why would anyone want to lose power and in turn power, no heat, no internet, unable to travel to drug, grocery stores?
For how long a day, a week maybe longer?
Once is all it will take. Maybe wanting and getting an ice storm might break the wanting of one.  

We've engaged in this debate a few times over the years ... There's definitely some angst in the duality of the dystopian thrill/d-drip addiction, fighting against the responsible morality in having to see/hear about orphanages losing power.  Firstly, the draw is the awesome.   Just as some people are moved by a Hail Mary touchdown.  Some by an angelic aria. For others ... it's the specter of big weather.

I have this dilemma to some degree.  

I find the specter of ice stenciling trees and power lines to be quite aesthetically pleasing at a superficial level.  And yes, there is some thrill there, too.  I have thought about that thrill factor, though - as it pertains to me.  It is really more awed at the power of nature.  I don't know what it is in other's in their want of the ice storm, but that's really what it is for me.  Perhaps less about the crisis...

Very short window of satisfaction there, however.  Because that soon turns to regret when the background white noise of civil living is suddenly rendered to silence.  If lucky enough this happens in the daylight hours; at least gray light limps through the windows.  No one in this forum ( most likely ...) was raised without the programming and ultimately, entitled assumption of electricity.  It really is taken for granted.  And it's not just about the inconvenience - oh for a lot of folks...that'll be all it is, and a little reminder isn't a bad thing. But there's too many people whose survival is closer to hanging in the balance and having lost power, whether it is for a small business ... to personal health matter, once the angst turns existential.  Mmm... it's a dereliction of moral intelligence to continue to gloat and want of the calamity of ice storms.

It's an odd one.  

But you know... in reality, no weather extreme event is really absent of the above dilemma.   I mean, one goes tornado chasing for a chance to stand there transfixed by the awesome power of God's finger.  But while it is carving a canyon through a town in Tornado Alley - those pixels on the video?  Gee, some of those could be 4-year olds.  

I've given all this a lot of thought and thankfully ...as I've grown older those higher cerebral responsibilities as a human being have begun to shade scenarios that cause destruction.  I've been able to compartmentalize the awe at nature's machinery, while still sending remorse and dreams that it would ever be possible to bear witness to extremes, without the price tag being ultimate.   Yeah, not very realistic.   It's about at this time in the internal muse that my thoughts morph into the idiocy of humanity placing themselves in harm's way.  And so the compartmentalization is awe in the specter of nature's wonders;  anger and frustration at the "Pacific Palisades"

 

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