dryslot Posted yesterday at 12:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:04 AM 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: AI is much farther south and probably closer to reality Warm and wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 12:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:07 AM 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Is it though? GFS,Euro, Nam all have it, Looks like it has support, Maybe they're all wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 12:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:10 AM 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Warm and wet. It barely gets precip into cold sector . Nothing like op Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a complete Stein pattern with no end in sight I bust your balls a lot for your dry persistence forecasting in the warm season but you had the fear and it has continued into the cold season. Your idea of using the dry falls and how those years correlated to shit snowfall the following winter has not been wrong so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted yesterday at 12:18 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:18 AM 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS,Euro, Nam all have it, Looks like it has support, Maybe they're all wrong? Just worried it comes in weak and disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted yesterday at 12:21 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:21 AM We BAM 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I bust your balls a lot for your dry persistence forecasting in the warm season but you had the fear and it has continued into the cold season. Your idea of using the dry falls and how those years correlated to shit snowfall the following winter has not been wrong so far. Well the dry pattern analogged well . Every single dry fall also led to a dry winter. December came in normal to a bit AN Precip so I thought.. well maybe the analogs were wrong this winter But Jan went right back to fall pattern . What I was incorrect on was the mild. I didn’t think it would be cold and dry . Feb is looking back and forth on temps so that part remains to be seen . But the overall dry pattern looks to continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted yesterday at 12:29 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:29 AM Fill me in on who Al is? Is it short for alcoholic? Weekend system looks like a hot mess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted yesterday at 12:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:30 AM 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well the dry pattern analogged well . Some truth to qg_omega's mud warning after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 12:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:32 AM 1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Some truth to qg_omega's mud warning after all. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted yesterday at 12:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:34 AM 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Fill me in on who Al is? Is it short for alcoholic? Weekend system looks like a hot mess. The Euro AI EC-AIFS Model – MSLP & Precip for Northeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted yesterday at 12:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:35 AM 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who? It's a no value added turd joke. Please ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM 3 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: It's a no value added turd joke. Please ignore. Lol…Ya that was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted yesterday at 12:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:53 AM 8 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: The Euro AI EC-AIFS Model – MSLP & Precip for Northeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits So how does this differ from what we have grown used to with model initialization parameters? The EURO was known as the penultimate when it came to this. 2yrs has brought a lot of changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted yesterday at 12:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:59 AM We could have a good 5 days up here just maybe 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted yesterday at 01:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:15 AM 53 minutes ago, qg_omega said: We BAM Cold shots of air….did he want to differentiate air from beer? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted yesterday at 01:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:24 AM 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Yeah, like that guy in the ski thread who vacationed there recent at one of Alex’s properties and said they woke up every morning to the car covered in fresh snow. It has been amazing to me the lack of synoptic snowfall or even precip events. It hasn’t rained or snowed synoptically in a long time. I guess tomorrow is synoptic but there’s an orographic assist too. Been a while since just straight mid-level lift producing precip. Just experienced that. My kid had a basketball game in Lisbon, past Littleton along the VT border, and there was barely an inch on the ground there. Even Littleton has very little. Bubble is a good definition; it seems like it’s been such a great January but without upslope it really hasn’t done much. But that’s easy to forget when we’ve had snow probably a good 70% of days in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: AI is much farther south and probably closer to reality It will compromise. Cope better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 01:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:37 AM 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Cold shots of air….did he want to differentiate air from beer? Lmao…the poster who posted that just shows how ridiculous they truly are. Perhaps “BAM weather” should change its name to “BAD weather?” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 01:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:40 AM 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will compromise. Cope better. You said that for 3 days and thus far it hasn’t . It’s the best model we have now . Pay attention to it son 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: We BAM And 3 days ago he had the entire northeast highlighted in cold and snow, the guy just flip flops with ensembles. Too much uncertainty at the moment, def wouldn’t circle the Interior Northeast in the Mud Warning just yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 01:47 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:47 AM 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: And 3 days ago he had the entire northeast highlighted in cold and snow, the guy just flip flops with ensembles. Too much uncertainty at the moment, def wouldn’t circle the Interior Northeast in the Mud Warning just yet. Not in a Stein pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted yesterday at 01:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:51 AM 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: And 3 days ago he had the entire northeast highlighted in cold and snow, the guy just flip flops with ensembles. Too much uncertainty at the moment, def wouldn’t circle the Interior Northeast in the Mud Warning just yet. I think it should be "Shots of Cold Air"! Cold shots of air is ass-backwards? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted yesterday at 01:55 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:55 AM 31 minutes ago, alex said: Just experienced that. My kid had a basketball game in Lisbon, past Littleton along the VT border, and there was barely an inch on the ground there. Even Littleton has very little. Bubble is a good definition; it seems like it’s been such a great January but without upslope it really hasn’t done much. But that’s easy to forget when we’ve had snow probably a good 70% of days in January It has just been a gentle slosh of moisture into the mountains from the NW/W/SW direction aloft for almost a month. Places that are near the barrier to that sloshing, have done ok so far this winter. Places downstream that are blocked by terrain and see drastically less low level moisture don’t seem to do as well… those downstream areas (of the barrier) are the ones that benefit from a SE/NE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted yesterday at 02:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:08 AM In the meantime, looks like another pretty good stretch coming up, starting with the current WWA for 3-6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted yesterday at 02:09 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:09 AM 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah, like that guy in the ski thread who vacationed there recent at one of Alex’s properties and said they woke up every morning to the car covered in fresh snow. It has been amazing to me the lack of synoptic snowfall or even precip events. It hasn’t rained or snowed synoptically in a long time. I guess tomorrow is synoptic but there’s an orographic assist too. Been a while since just straight mid-level lift producing precip. For sure…and it has been just as bad in the Midwest. Here are a couple examples of places that have essentially experienced a snowless winter so far. Data since November 20th, which I consider to be the beginning of winter: - Mason City IA: 1.14” precip (most fell on one mild day in December), 2.7” snow - Omaha, NE: 0.85” precip (most fell on one mild day in December), 1.0” snow It would be nice if we could ever experience a proper winter. The last one was 2014-15. I know it has been similar in much of SNE. It just gets to be ridiculous at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted yesterday at 02:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:39 AM 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So how does this differ from what we have grown used to with model initialization parameters? The EURO was known as the penultimate when it came to this. 2yrs has brought a lot of changes. Still under review Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 03:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:07 AM 18z GEFs corrected the low track dramatically sw some 250 mi for Fri evening … NE ME down to the Ma Pike Meanwhile the op version has observed continuity as the the southern outlier … That’s a pretty strong lean in fav of the op … too munch to ignore 18z oper Euro also S / tho no idea on thermal … looks like snow Rt 2 N with icy mix below then R s o the pike might even be more leery of an eventual total collapse …overall these are typical needle thread short side of mid range corrections. But the ens move gives them credence Not a major but may approach moderate or low even low end warn along a narrow corridor. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted yesterday at 04:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:04 AM GFS is thumpier for CNE Friday night, both the primary drives farther north and there's a bit more of a handoff to a weak low sliding ENE off Cape Cod 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago I'm hoping to get out early from work on Friday and drive to Pit2. Perhaps I'll manage some snow up there on the second half of the trip and Friday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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