February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[Damage In Tolland]

When it ends.. it’ll end quickly to spring 

[ORH_wxman]

11 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t know about that. The MJO plots have it briefly going into phase 4 (relaxation period early Feb?) and then potentially into the cold phases again. My biggest concern is that we will see more of the same, cold and dry. That has been the pattern the first half of winter, often these patterns have a tendency to lock in. Honestly think there is a decent chance we finish the winter with both below normal temps and below normal snowfall, which is very rare especially with the acceleration of climate change. We have seen a tendency towards warm/wet as AGW progresses. It is unfortunate that this cold pattern has not been a snowy one, as cold winters like this are becoming rarer and rarer as our climate warms. It would be nice to capitalize on it and snow when we do get cold weather.

Weeklies weren't warm for second half of February....they had a gradient pattern....lots of cold in northern tier of CONUS. We're kind of on the line near average. Take with a grain of salt this far out of course....but if we do go back into the COD or even skew toward the cold MJO phases, then maybe we don't get the usual Februayr Nina torch and instead keep it closer to normal.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies weren't warm for second half of February....they had a gradient pattern....lots of cold in northern tier of CONUS. We're kind of on the line near average. Take with a grain of salt this far out of course....but if we do go back into the COD or even skew toward the cold MJO phases, then maybe we don't get the usual Februayr Nina torch and instead keep it closer to normal.

That would be a fine thing for once! I'll take my chances being near the divide in February anytime

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies weren't warm for second half of February....they had a gradient pattern....lots of cold in northern tier of CONUS. We're kind of on the line near average. Take with a grain of salt this far out of course....but if we do go back into the COD or even skew toward the cold MJO phases, then maybe we don't get the usual Februayr Nina torch and instead keep it closer to normal.

At least through the first 10 days of Feb ... the spatial representation ( ens chart mean ) over the hemisphere, doesn't lend to bombastic heat. But these means go to 360 beyond, whence the flow looks annular more so than the previous canonical NE ridge with NW flow through Canada - those same ones that were formerly leading to fantastic expectations now poorly realized  

On the other hand, the numerical teleconnectors have been pretty persistently in a  neutral EPO/ -PNA after about Feb 3 -ish.   With a statically positive AO(NAO) also in the numerics.  This is all presently true in he Euro weeklies, as well as the GEFs extended.  So the rip and read of that is a warm tendency; then combining that with recent year's climate behaviors ... doesn't lend to protracting the cold biases/perceptions very deep into February.   It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that the spatial synoptic graphics begin to present more and more of what these telecons suggest - I've noticed in the past that the former does tend to lead the latter.   

So those two aspects above are somewhat in conflict, at least early on.  I think after Feb 10 there's potential to go either early spring and a rather unceremonious exit, or loading perhaps one last time before doing that anyway. 

I think being realistic about the end game this year is that there are more reasons to presume some sort of warm occurrences and general earlier exit than not. But this is supposition...

There's a subtle impression that some sort of event may set up still in that 28th to 2nd though.  May be a Jan thread thing heh

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs trying to do Tippys heat burst. 

Here's the heat burst just coming into the outer range of the guidance -

[DavisStraight]

Ponds should have thick ice before this cold snap ends and last into February. Once it gets pretty thick takes a lot to melt it.

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's the heat burst just coming into the outer range of the guidance -

Yeah was just commenting on 6z. 

[George001]

Looks like we are looking at a gradient pattern setting up for early Feb

[dendrite]

These d16 warmth posts are going to be very triggering to Greta’s dad.