February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t buy into the over attribution and nonsense.  If you listened to the hype, it shouldn’t have been this cold all winter either.   And Florida and the gulf coast- 40 miles out into the ocean getting a full blown blizzard with over a foot of snow, did anyone think that would be possible.  And all the cold records going down in the Midwest and south this week now…ya don’t buy the hype.  We’ll be just fine. 

How many BN winters have we had this century compared to AN?

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 But you can already see it may be breaking down by the end there. I dunno, back is broken after this weekend imo. Doesn’t mean it can’t have some snow or cold, just like in August when we can have heat and dews.

All I'm saying is that if that ends up going from a -EPO, into that ?  

Back is not broken.  

But to be fair ... it also depends on what we want to call back breaking.   It's subjective ...  Relaxing the never get as high as 32 F with lows between 0 and 15?  Okay.    But if we are replacing with 4 or 5 days of napage,  only to then follow by unfunnable indeterminably long compression windy cold no storms shit eating 37 F... "to me" that is trying to oversell the back as actually having been broken.

But like I said ..that's just me talkin'

Now, if we want to argue that  -EPO loads cold into a massive historically preposterous P.O.S. oddity flow, won't happen? fine.    

[ORH_wxman]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We were definitely due for a colder winter. I don’t think next year will be as cold, but I wouldn’t expect the previous two winters temps either. 

Yeah I'm guessing people got so acclimated to the last two winters that they are starting to think that +5 against 1991-2020 climo is the "New normal"....this was basically an average winter for temps...maybe slightly BN. We will see winters significantly colder than this one.

[Heisy]

Here’s what I’m talking about off the 6z euro Ai, and it was hinted at on other models last night,

There’s the wave day 7, that wave has a SE flow ahead of it and not much chance for frozen outside elevations, but right on its heels is another N/S shortwave which OP euro and Ai develop a second low.

If we can get some spacing between the two it could work for you guys.





Both the 00z and 6z euro Ai redevelop that second wave and dump snow in SNE. The cmc was trying to turn the corner too. Not betting the house on it, but with the brief PNA spike maybe it’s possible.


.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All I'm saying is that if that ends up going from a -EPO, into that ?  

Back is not broken.  

But to be fair ... it also depends on what we want to call back breaking.   It's subjective ...  Relaxing the never get as high as 32 F with lows between 0 and 15?  Okay.    But if we are replacing with 4 or 5 days of napage,  only to then follow by unfunnable indeterminably long compression windy cold no storms shit eating 37 F... "to me" that is trying to oversell the back as actually having been broken.

But like I said ..that's just me talkin'

Now, if we want to argue that  -EPO loads cold into a massive historically preposterous P.O.S. oddity flow set up than fine.    

It’s akin to the weenies saying back is broken in August when we get our first cool shot. It’s definitely going to get colder after 3/1 but maybe it last 7-10 days? You can see the PAC jet seems like it wants to get more active. That cold won’t last long by that date if it happens. 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody ever said extremes can’t happen. But the cold is less and less overall as the warmth is more and more. 

We’ll, Not this year it wasn’t…not even close. Not even in the Deep South.  Snowed everywhere..even in places it doesn’t snow(unfortunately for us it wasn’t here-bad fortune).  Nobody saw any of that happening. So Mother Nature showed us we don’t as much as we think we do. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

We’ll, Not this year it wasn’t…not even close. Not even in the Deep South.  Snowed everywhere..even in places it doesn’t snow(unfortunately for us it wasn’t here-bad fortune).  Nobody saw any of that happening. So Mother Nature showed us we don’t as much as we think we do. 

We know plenty. The globe was a torch. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We know plenty. The globe was a torch. 

Yup. We were in our own cocoon insulated by cool air for the first time in like 5yrs lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s akin to the weenies saying back is broken in August when we get our first cool shot. It’s definitely going to get colder after 3/1 but maybe it last 7-10 days? You can see the PAC jet seems like it wants to get more active. That cold won’t last long by that date if it happens. 

Yeah, this is the best way to look at it (bold).

That f'n look though...  

this below?   this is the worse for the most possible people.  You're not getting spring;  you're not getting storms because of elephant ass on trampoline kinematic stoppage.    Worst for the most possible people and no one can rejoice, misery.  

 

[ineedsnow]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 But you can already see it may be breaking down by the end there. I dunno, back is broken after this weekend imo. Doesn’t mean it can’t have some snow or cold, just like in August when we can have heat and dews.

once August comes it always seems that we turned a corner and fall isn't that far away.. same with February you know the cold and snow is almost done and warmer times are ahead. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Cold winds of Yore? It has been FRIGID the last few weeks with the wind, it has a serious bite

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. We were in our own cocoon insulated by cool air for the first time in like 5yrs lol. 

China over to the eastern part of the Middle East was pretty cold this winter as well.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, this is the best way to look at it (bold).

That f'n look though...  

this below?   this is the worse for the most possible people.  You're not getting spring;  you're not getting storms because of elephant ass on trampoline kinematic stoppage.    Worst for the most possible people and no one can rejoice, misery.  

 

I’ve seen enough of that look this winter and have a cosmic you know what to show for it. 

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Had my shoulder replaced in July then again in September after the first one failed. The surgery was less painful than my rotator Labrum surgery. 

How long was recovery?

[CoastalWx]

We talk about temps all the time especially over the last few winters. There is nothing more frustrating then to finally have winter temps but either the moisture lacks or the tracks precisely eff you just enough to suck the joy out of anything wintry. That’s how it’s felt since early December.

[Hazey]

Nice nor’easter rainer. This will probably track perfectly. No fast flow compression effects

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

China over to the eastern part of the Middle East was pretty cold this winter as well.

 

I wonder if the Eurasian/China anomalies were more in the February time span.   The just January was quite a bit different - but it was also a different source I'm guessing just judging by the graphics' complexion, too. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

What dos next Friday/28th look like this morning? 

I jinxed it yesterday every piece of guidance is now just a frontal passage 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

China over to the eastern part of the Middle East was pretty cold this winter as well.

 

Ya…I guess they had their cocoon too lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if the Eurasian/China anomalies were more in the February time span.   The just January was quite a bit different - but it was also a different source I'm guessing just judging by the graphics' complexion, too. 

December was quite cold from China to ME too. It was actually the coldest stretch on the globe outside of a frigid Greenland that month.

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Nice nor’easter rainer. This will probably track perfectly. No fast flow compression effects

Hey look, those nice cold temperatures we had all winter are suddenly gone..go figure 

[CoastalWx]

Good weather for Jerry's walks next week. Melt that crap off the sidewalks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, NeonPeon said:

The temps here have been just about average, which is to say mean temps have been 3 to 4 degrees above what they've been the last five years. To hear people though, we are deep in an arctic tundra. There's definitely recency bias comparing to abnormal warmth but it also does feel cold, this is because it has been a remarkably windy winter, especially for one that hasn't really had any notable storms.

On that front... This has been yet another atrocious winter for snow. With little to hope for in the forecast here and approaching March... This could be the third year in a row of single digit snowfall here. 

No, they haven't...at least not by 1991-2020 standards.

[Hazey]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Hey look, those nice cold temperatures we had all winter are suddenly gone..go figure 

Yup. fan on every pitch when cold air in place. Nice troll job mother nature...lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm guessing people got so acclimated to the last two winters that they are starting to think that +5 against 1991-2020 climo is the "New normal"....this was basically an average winter for temps...maybe slightly BN. We will see winters significantly colder than this one.

Its a bit colder vs 1991-2020 climo across SNE, but I'm suprised....thought it was colder.

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. We were in our own cocoon insulated by cool air for the first time in like 5yrs lol. 

Not according to what Will just posted.  The cold came from somewhere. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Here’s what I’m talking about off the 6z euro Ai, and it was hinted at on other models last night,

There’s the wave day 7, that wave has a SE flow ahead of it and not much chance for frozen outside elevations, but right on its heels is another N/S shortwave which OP euro and Ai develop a second low.

If we can get some spacing between the two it could work for you guys.





Both the 00z and 6z euro Ai redevelop that second wave and dump snow in SNE. The cmc was trying to turn the corner too. Not betting the house on it, but with the brief PNA spike maybe it’s possible.


.

Hold on, let me hold my breath-

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not according to what Will just posted.  The cold came from somewhere. 

Vast majority of the globe is warm....no deabating that.

[Kitz Craver]

20 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

How long was recovery?

I’ve heard shoulder surgery rehab is pretty brutal.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a bit colder vs 1991-2020 climo across SNE, but I'm suprised....thought it was colder.

That basically is in degree C so a little more impactful. Also resolution probably sucks.