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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Finally, an exciting development this winter....hell, I may shitcan the mid week flurries and blog about your mental status-

Lol... I'm not crazed. Not in the least, but I did get triggered by a certain comment, which I realize now was no big deal and I did react in an uncanny way. Weathafella is a good guy and I do respect him. So all is good 

Moving in on. 

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I dunno if any of that's going to happen but that 06z GFS was a hoot.

Clipper, then whatever GHD ... then, two SW flow snow burst events, finally ending in a cold available coastal.   None of which were majors but kinda like shouldn't be there?  the clipper and GHD are okay but those latter ones. 

The interesting nerd aspect,  all's during a -PNA/+NAO       

It doesn't have a lot of support from the other guidance ... or the super synoptic indicators for that matter, but I guess it's not physically impossible either.

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I dunno if any of that's going to happen but that 06z GFS was a hoot.
Clipper, then whatever GHD ... then, two SW flow snow burst events, finally ending in a cold available coastal.   None of which were majors but kinda like shouldn't be there?  the clipper and GHD are okay but those latter ones. 
The interesting nerd aspect,  all's during a -PNA/+NAO       
It doesn't have a lot of support from the other guidance ... or the super synoptic indicators for that matter, but I guess it's not physically impossible either.
This was the total snow from the run (posting both the 10:1 and Kuchie for comparison). If that pattern verifies it is congrats Powderfreak and Dendritef09be7949c600ac745f48e1403d923f9.jpgb6ae1045df903b3b2504da256f17703a.jpg

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Re the 1st/2nd, I'm not sure I totally buy the N corrections at 00z.  I'd like to see any 'needle thread' scenario inside of 4.5 days before feeling very confident.  This recent event that laid down 4-6" regionally was also errantly handled at this range - owing to the higher compression and speed soaked flow.   

FWIW the 06z GFS with just a small adjustment S and brought mix/ ice to Rt 2, possibly even the Pike.

Not a major event, but for those feeling a bit winter storm lorn ... it's better than nothing.

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31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Almost at that time of year when NNE starts to really cash in. I fully expect NNE to get slammed over the next 4-6 weeks. 

Lol really ..this also our snowiest time now for the next month or so too.  We in climo favored snowiest time. But can’t get anything to Line up unfortunately.   

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol really ..this also our snowiest time now for the next month or so too.  We in climo favored snowiest time. But can’t get anything to Line up unfortunately.   

Exactly...that is the issue, we can't get anything to line up. For those towards the coast and lower elevations...time is a ticking. Sure we're in the climatologically favored period but we need more than that to produce and right now the pipe line does not look encouraging. The tune begins to start changing very quickly in another 3 weeks or so outside of NNE and elevations. Of course we can get slammed in March with a storm but it is difficult to do and we'd then be adding on something exceedingly difficult on top of what already has been difficult. We certainly have some time left but that hourglass is beginning to spit sand a bit more quickly. 

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