Spanks45 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Skynet knows. She gone. Devil's advocate, skynet also showed a flatter pattern with the current storms and quite snowy at times. Not sure it is much better than the rest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 this feels like a storm where everyone is going to violently say she gone and then it will come back. The reverse juju from the maniacal obsessing snow weenies shall be rewarded in time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Devil's advocate, skynet also showed a flatter pattern with the current storms and quite snowy at times. Not sure it is much better than the rest.... Hasn't been great lately imo. Too cold today, probably too cold this weekend. Doesnt mean next week won't whiff though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/2/2025 at 3:24 AM, The 4 Seasons said: I don't think I've ever seen an EPS mean this high before without an imminent snow threat. Lots of chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: That map will verify pretty well for New England from 2/2 to 2/17 .. Just not the excessive high end amounts we all envisioned , only place that may come up just short is in between rt 2 and rt 84.. Just happened to verify as 6 light snow events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 39 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: We can’t have nice things this decade. It’s a ghost that will disappear on approach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Was she ever really there at all? Scooter scared her away, again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess the good news is that this thing is not over Bermuda and now we're hoping for it to come NW. It's a workable distance from SNE. I can see it being an EOR deal especially sematt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Scooter scared her away, again. Until she comes back for one final tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 20 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Devil's advocate, skynet also showed a flatter pattern with the current storms and quite snowy at times. Not sure it is much better than the rest.... Even wolfie can’t stay positive. He’s slowly entering into the what can wrong will go wrong camp. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I can see it being an EOR deal especially sematt. Our favorite, yayyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Even wolfie can’t stay positive. He’s slowly entering into the what can wrong will go wrong camp. It's a dark place, but I am at the entrance welcoming those that want to enter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, superETA said: Very new to meteorology and forecasting, so I could be way off here, but based on the latest NWS Palisades storm discussion (via LOX NWS), I’m not seeing much of a strong western ridge signal that would slow down and organize our storm in the Northeast: So from what I can tell, there’s some ridging out west, but not enough to really change the downstream setup for the NE. That might be why CMC/GFS keep showing the storm getting stretched and ejecting too quickly instead of digging in. The Euro seems to handle the SPV-southern stream interaction better, but with the overall -d(gradient) flow, it still looks like another fast-moving, messy system unless something shifts. Does that sound right? Or is the CA forecast way too far west and early to affect what's going on over here next week? Still trying to get a feel for how these setups evolve. Thanks You got the basic idea with the wave frequency aspects. The western ridge needs to probe higher in latitude, post the eject east across the continent with the Pacific goodies. That would direct the subsuming SPV more S and also, the S/Stream S/W would get a constructive interference feed-back on amplitude, and because of having more N-S total construct, ...the field necessarily slows down. etc.. But, the -d(gradient) is just to describe the back ground state of compression as alleviating some, while all that is happening. There's a kind of a disconnect - though they are related. The lowering gradient allows for frequency gains, but so far... the models are not doing that. The gradient seems to slack off a little while the frequencies stay the same. So these solutions are varying between partial and no phasing in a cosmic prick tease... haha. j/k there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GEFS were better than 6z, but still some work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's a dark place, but I am at the entrance welcoming those that want to enter. He’s there without fangs. Tail between legs, tired and defeated from the long journey from the APATT camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s there without fangs. Tail between legs, tired and defeated from the long journey from the APATT camp. He engages too much, and it's wearing on him, but he won't admit it. Then you have ineedsnow, just finds the snowiest model or point and click forecast and gets his fix that way, while blissfully ignoring the bruce willis flags and negative discourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, ma blizzard said: if only we could see 1 more panel It would show a full capture taking place, stalled storm in the 960s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You get the basic idea with the wave frequency aspects. The western ridge needs to probe higher in latitude, post the eject east across the continent with the Pacific goodies. That would direct the subsuming SPV more S and also, the S/Stream S/W would get a constructive interference feed-back on amplitude, and because of having more N-S total construct, ...the field necessarily slows down. etc.. But, the -d(gradient) is just to describe the back ground state of compression as alleviating some, while all that is happening. There's a kind of a disconnect - though they are related. The lowering gradient allows for frequency gains, but so far... the models are not doing that. The gradient seems to slack off a little while the frequencies stay the same. So these solutions are varying between partial and no phasing in a cosmic prick tease... haha. j/k there You know damn well the moment we get the higher western ridge probe, it will insidiously be offset with more compression back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: He engages too much, and it's wearing on him, but he won't admit it. Then you have ineedsnow, just finds the snowiest model or point and click forecast and gets his fix that way, while blissfully ignoring the bruce willis flags and negative discourse. I envy him. Bless his little heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Even wolfie can’t stay positive. He’s slowly entering into the what can wrong will go wrong camp. Nope, APATT goes out the window when a sledding trip to Moose Knuckle is in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 You can see difference out west between the ICON and GFS...much better ridge on the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You know damn well the moment we get the higher western ridge probe, it will insidiously be offet with more compression back east. Ha, that had occurred to me, m'man. However, I'm very cautiously optimistic that won't happen "as much" ... because the longer lead projections of the EPO are nominal through mid March actually. ( as in aside, the spread et al is significantly warmer local hemisphere by the Ides... but who knows - ) But - I think you touched on it earlier? - there is a +PNA ballooning between the 20th and the end of the month, this time, sans the -EPO cold hammer. It may not be a bad thing for a window of opportunity in this regime, because the flow character, being less like an elephants giant ass mashing a trampoline down, allows for more local-scale curvature to actually take place in the proverbial meshing of the trampoline... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha, that had occurred to me, m'man. However, I'm very cautiously optimistic that won't happen "as much" ... because the longer lead projections of the EPO are nominal through mid March actually. ( as in aside, the spread et al is significantly warm local hemisphere by the ides... but who knows - ) But - I think you touched on it earlier? - there is a +PNA ballooning between the 20th and the end of the month, this time, sans the -EPO cold hammer. It may not be a bad thing for a window of opportunity in this regime, because the flow is allows for more local-scale curvature to actually take place, Yes, that period around the 24th has a simple, traditonal PNA ridge....where as the period circa the 20th is afflicted with that same, hemispheric scale virus of a configuration that has plagued this whole season....with that sw-ne smeared ridge just off of the west coast, and a deep low over the CONUS, which is why guidance keeps trying to phase back east but the atmosphere just never succeeds in doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 EURO a near miss, phase too far NE , as it moves SE of BM, light to moderate hit still.. Warnings snow SE areas, Runnaway special.. Absolute bomb but too late for us for the real goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Well workable anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: EURO a near miss, phase too far NE , as it moves SE of BM, light to moderate hit still.. Warnings snow east of 91, Runnaway special.. Absolute bomb but too late for us for the real goods Yes, it will phase, but my money says that it will be downstream from us due to that orientation out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Fringed on next thurs even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 27mb drop in 12 hours......not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 That is a vicious gradient in that system...that would also be a disruptive wind event were it to ever matrialize fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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