Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 This shows what happens when the wind blows on heavily iced trees. And yes., my dungarees were off https://i.imgur.com/f7lQOlO.mp4 1 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 20th wide right on the GFS. That will lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: 20th wide right on the GFS. That will lock in. Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: 20th wide right on the GFS. That will lock in. It’s got to hold that for 7+ straight days…I get it, but even for failure…that’s a lot to ask. Look what’s happening with our Saturday/Sunday system tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Euro is a blizzard on the 20th/21st 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, weathafella said: Euro is a blizzard on the 20th ya this run is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Euro with a big hit for the 20th. Kind of an odd look at h5 with a cutoff over WI drifting towards us. Idk, maybe it works with late season shorter wavelengths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 EPS has trended back to its more exotic look from a couple days ago at 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6z stuff more amped again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS has trended back to its more exotic look from a couple days ago at 00z We're doing better with the still shots from you...please, no movies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We're doing better with the still shots from you...please, no movies. Stick to weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I get Sticky in snowy weather. One reason to hope for an amped trend this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Skynet not biting. Whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Skynet not biting. Whiff. 00z or 6z? 00z had a bomb just missing.. 50mb drop in 24 hours just east of bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 00z or 6z? 00z had a bomb just missing.. 00z which was closer to the coast then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 hours ago, weathafella said: Euro is a blizzard on the 20th/21st Crap. Flight to RSW on the 21st at 0700. I’ve been really looking forward to this trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 29° and freezing drizzle, measured 3 inches of snow at 3 AM and just measured 2 inches of snow and ice now, had considerable icing after 3 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month It will probably find a way to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It will probably find a way to fail. oh shit... put that in the wrong thread. sorry bro - i'll move it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It will probably find a way to fail. Even with everything in our favor ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Even with everything in our favor ? That pattern out west isn't totally in our favor.....same issue we have had all season with the PNA ridge being slanted sw to ne off of the coast, and a closed low over the SW CONUS....take a look at the H5 chart for the failed 1/11 threat. Look familiar? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I think the 24th has a better shot as it stands now, as it doesn't look to have that issue...ridege is still a bit too far west, but its better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 This is why these big east coast storms are mirages that dissapear at closer lead times....its a sign of a flaw in the hemispheric construct this season. I'll bet this one will keep everyone scrambling for the needle on the street corner until about Tuesday, when it becomes apparent it will either fail entirely, or be a nusiance ordeal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ya, the big storm isn’t happening. Another 1-2 incher most likely next week. Unless the long wave pattern improves…which is highly unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Wunderground and Accuweather have more snow on Saturday-Saturday night and colder temps on Sunday 32-34 than earlier. Also, Wunder has 2-3 inches on Sunday, Accu 1-2 and Accu is warning of a potentially serious icing situation. NWS is still calling for temp to rise to 40 with everything going over to rain on Sunday. What's happening that Wunder and Accu have gone for lower temps and potential for significan icing? Why is NWS holding out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That pattern out west isn't totally in our favor.....same issue we have had all season with the PNA ridge being slanted sw to ne off of the coast, and a closed low over the SW CONUS....take a look at the H5 chart for the failed 1/11 threat. Look familiar? A couple days ago you were feeling good about the 20th, what happened? Did the western ridge trend worse on guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Wunderground and Accuweather have more snow on Saturday-Saturday night and colder temps on Sunday 32-34 than earlier. Also, Wunder has 2-3 inches on Sunday, Accu 1-2 and Accu is warning of a potentially serious icing situation. NWS is still calling for temp to rise to 40 with everything going over to rain on Sunday. What's happening that Wunder and Accu have gone for lower temps and potential for significan icing? Why is NWS holding out? They(NWS)want to see what the next cycle brings…could go back to warm again(probably will), so why do the windshield wiper effect..? If 12z holds the colder scenario..they’ll probably start to cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, George001 said: A couple days ago you were feeling good about the 20th, what happened? Did the western ridge trend worse on guidance? He doesn’t want to say it’s coming again..And then get the rug pulled again on the next run..I don’t blame him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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