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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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Heights over western N/A are the challenge.  This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. 

It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ).  You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS.  The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab.  

But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heights over western N/A are the challenge.  This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. 

It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ).  You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS.  The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab.  

But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month

It will probably find a way to fail.

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Even with everything in our favor ?

That pattern out west isn't totally in our favor.....same issue we have had all season with the PNA ridge being slanted sw to ne off of the coast, and a closed low over the SW CONUS....take a look at the H5 chart for the failed 1/11 threat. Look familiar?

image.png.f4c06bd23dc86cfb826102134003674b.pngB1.png

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This is why these big east coast storms are mirages that dissapear at closer lead times....its a sign of a flaw in the hemispheric construct this season.

I'll bet this one will keep everyone scrambling for the needle on the street corner until about Tuesday, when it becomes apparent it will either fail entirely, or be a nusiance ordeal.

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Wunderground and Accuweather have more snow on Saturday-Saturday night and colder temps on Sunday 32-34 than earlier. Also, Wunder has 2-3 inches on Sunday, Accu 1-2 and Accu is warning of a potentially serious icing situation. NWS is still calling for temp to rise to 40 with everything going over to rain on Sunday.

What's happening that  Wunder and Accu have gone for lower temps and potential for significan icing? Why is NWS holding out?

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That pattern out west isn't totally in our favor.....same issue we have had all season with the PNA ridge being slanted sw to ne off of the coast, and a closed low over the SW CONUS....take a look at the H5 chart for the failed 1/11 threat. Look familiar?

image.png.f4c06bd23dc86cfb826102134003674b.pngB1.png

A couple days ago you were feeling good about the 20th, what happened? Did the western ridge trend worse on guidance? 

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10 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Wunderground and Accuweather have more snow on Saturday-Saturday night and colder temps on Sunday 32-34 than earlier. Also, Wunder has 2-3 inches on Sunday, Accu 1-2 and Accu is warning of a potentially serious icing situation. NWS is still calling for temp to rise to 40 with everything going over to rain on Sunday.

What's happening that  Wunder and Accu have gone for lower temps and potential for significan icing? Why is NWS holding out?

They(NWS)want to see what the next cycle brings…could go back to warm again(probably will), so why do the windshield wiper effect..?  If 12z holds the colder scenario..they’ll probably start to cool. 

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

A couple days ago you were feeling good about the 20th, what happened? Did the western ridge trend worse on guidance? 

He doesn’t want to say it’s coming again..And then get the rug pulled again on the next run..I don’t blame him. 

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