Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Our big icestorm is back . Not shocked 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS is some for ORH county maybe. That’s a really decent mesolow look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 that cold tuck was on the 12z run big time... It actually sloshed back enough to ZR for an additional .1 or .2 accretion in the interior NW too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Our big icestorm is back . Not shocked You're still too far south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If we could get the 12z Euro to make that transfer 150-200 miles further south it would pinch off the warmth, Its close. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Our big icestorm is back . Not shocked not sure "big" ... it would be marginal warning ice amts do to the fast speed of the system. It will also depend how heavy it comes down and just how cold it is too. It's a delicate thing that goes on in the thermal balancing between kinetic energy from falling heavy rain, vs dry DP feed, vs latent heat of phase change. There's a tug of war there. The best accretion rate I've ever seen was a 19 F moderate rain with almost not pellets, which is bizarre and rare for that cold of a temperature to be clean rain. Must have been pretty warm at cloud height... But being the dweeb that I am, I was studying the droplets as they impacted the car windows and there was pretty much zero loss. Every drop froze almost instantly. 6 hours later it was 33 with just plain drizzle and lots of dripping. Ice "storms" need to have the 3 aspects above in a stasis over a longer period... the bigger events are typically 24 hours with another 2 days of intermittent continuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Keep that ice crap to my south, ugh. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Trend is of monster importance for the weekend... I've been saying all day that this was suspiciously too far W with all these canonical arguments that are valid for this scenario. If there's a trend to go SE at all, it is like "more" important than the typical trend - if that makes any sense .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I wouldn’t say temps are the reason for the shift. You can clearly see NE of Maine we have confluence flexing. That needs to continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You're still too far south The point is .. it’s coming back with 3 days to go . Icestorm mode activated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: not sure "big" ... it would be marginal warning ice amts do to the fast speed of the system. It will also depend how heavy it comes down and just how cold it is too. It's a delicate thing that goes on in the thermal balancing between kinetic energy from falling heavy rain, vs dry DP feed, vs latent heat of phase change. There's a tug of war there. The best accretion rate I've ever seen was a 19 F moderate rain with almost not pellets, which is bizarre and rare for that cold of a temperature to be clean rain. Must have been pretty warm at cloud height... But being the dweeb that I am, I was studying the droplets as they impacted the car windows and there was pretty much zero loss. Every drop froze almost instantly. 6 hours later it was 33 with just plain drizzle and lots of dripping. Ice "storms" need to have the 3 aspects above in a stasis over a longer period... the bigger events are typically 24 hours with another 2 days of intermittent continuance. I think once push comes to shove and we get within 12-24 hours there’s going to be zone in SNE somewhere of very significant ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS back to a fringe job next week.. good for SENE and very close to something bigger same general idea as 12z just missed though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GFS back to a fringe job next week.. good for SENE and very close to something bigger same general idea as 12z just missed though Not worth even following until Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not worth even following until Sunday True, will keep on giving it a look, but it won’t mean much til the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GFS back to a fringe job next week.. good for SENE and very close to something bigger same general idea as 12z just missed though Not happening homie. Euro is a whiff too. Fast flow and compression along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro actually has a decent cold tuck which flips NE MA back to ZR…but it just warms up a bit more prior to that than the GFS so there’s a period of rain. Trend to watch for sure though because a little earlier in the mesolow and it’s lights out over interior. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The point is .. it’s coming back with 3 days to go . Icestorm mode activated How many times have you set yourself up for disappointment? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: How many times have you set yourself up for disappointment? Dont think ever 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Snows in here Saturday afternoon. Wintry weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not happening homie. Euro is a whiff too. Fast flow and compression along the EC. I’m not writing it off til Sunday / Monday unless things turn drastically worse. Still very close, it’s obviously a tedious setup now with the needed TPV phase but there’s still a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Not Kuchie UGH CJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro actually has a decent cold tuck which flips NE MA back to ZR…but it just warms up a bit more prior to that than the GFS so there’s a period of rain. Trend to watch for sure though because a little earlier in the mesolow and it’s lights out over interior. How’s euro for front end Saturday? Don’t have access to it yet on WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: We just don’t know! All it takes is a cursory review of the 'pattern recognition' / 'emsemble mean' / 'why this time it's different' and resulting realities yielding melts, to know that the quoted statement is more true than not. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’m not writing it off til Sunday / Monday unless things turn drastically worse. Still very close, it’s obviously a tedious setup now with the needed TPV phase but there’s still a chance. That’s the problem. We can’t phase streams effectively lately. Have zero confidence a tedious setup works out to our delight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: How’s euro for front end Saturday? Don’t have access to it yet on WB I let you know in 20 mins if the 18z comes out...................... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'm figuring that at this time Sunday night I'll have a couple of new inches of wet snow pack on the seven or so inches left over from the previous couple of snowfalls we've had. A slight net gain which will turn into a solid block of ice by Monday morning. Several inches of snow Saturday-Saturday night (meaning 2-4; 3-5 max) will pack down during the rain on Sunday but it will be cold enough not to wash everything away. My big problem is whether my grandaughter's first birthday party in our church hall in Southbridge will get cancelled again because walks and driveway won't get cleared in time for services for the second week in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: I let you know in 20 mins if the 18z comes out...................... lol idk why weatherbell isn’t loading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: How’s euro for front end Saturday? Don’t have access to it yet on WB Looks like about 3-4” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Maybe someone should fire up a thread for the Sat/Sun deal? I gave it my best in the one for tonight/tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: lol idk why weatherbell isn’t loading 18z is running now out to hr 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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