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February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think I will lose cover....have like 9" right now....low 40s won't kill that....especially not after adding a few inches first.....probably be left with 6-7".

And this year that's a win....who knows maybe that half foot of cement will be a great base to a footer later this month or early March

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34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Well the AO is skyrocketing so not shocking. 

Yeah ... and it not just the AO.  All the indexes are flagging a warm abrupt end to winter ... This is the agglomerate index mode on Mar 7:

+AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA         Mmm, yeeeeah, that's a pretty quick end.  I mean, maybe in another era, imagined or distantly in the past, the behaviors of the total atmosphere would argue for exceptions to the rule that implies - a big warm one.   But nowadays ?

Folks need to get real about where we are circumstantially at a global scale, and just how enabling this has been over the last 6 or so weeks

image.png.78423348c735dabebaa9125e1234404c.png

 

Here, and Japan ...  are the only two places on the entire planet, where civility reigns or doesn't, that has experienced a January that was "cold" relative to climate, and probably extending into these first 10 days of February.

Where do folks think this winter would be without that very insular layout above?  Experienced hobbyists and mets know why this was the case ( above) and it was related to the NE Pacific dominating the circulation mode during that 45+ days.   Oscillating between -EPO cold loading into N/A and/or highly compressed low wave height +PNAs

Should this index spread confirm, +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA  , out there, doing so in that world above, at a time of year deep into the solar transition, during a La NIna footprint that correlates to warmer than normal springs... during CC... anything else we can pile on?   I mean, geez  

 

 

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2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'd think many of us in CNE and NNE stay all frozen.  Its just that freezing rain is so unpleasant. I'm hoping with can manage 6-10 on the front end.  But with the cold to follow we will be bulletproof.

Exactly. You guys up there could very well have a foot or so of glacier which will be perfect to add depth too right into mid March if it stays even seasonably cold. I think big things could be coming for C and N New England.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... and it not just the AO.  All the indexes are flagging a warm abrupt end to winter ... This is the agglomerate index mode on Mar 7:

+AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA         Mmm, yeeeeah, that's a pretty quick end.  I mean, maybe in another era, imagined or distantly in the past, the behaviors of the total atmosphere would argue for exceptions to the rule that implies - a big warm one.   But nowadays ?

Folks need to get real about where we are circumstantially at a global scale, and just how enabling this has been over the last 6 or so weeks

image.png.78423348c735dabebaa9125e1234404c.png

 

Here, and Japan ...  are the only two places on the entire planet, where civility reigns or doesn't, that has experienced a January that was "cold" relative to climate, and probably extending into these first 10 days of February.

Where do folks think this winter would be without that very insular layout above?  Experienced hobbyists and mets know why this was the case ( above) and it was related to the NE Pacific dominating the circulation mode during that 45+ days.   Oscillating between -EPO cold loading into N/A and/or highly compressed low wave height +PNAs

Should this index spread confirm, +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA  , out there, doing so in that world above, at a time of year deep into the solar transition, during a La NIna footprint that correlates to warmer than normal springs... during CC... anything else we can pile on?   I mean, geez  

 

 

Nothing to see here...we were cold, so all must be fine everywhere else, seems to be the theme going around. Bury one's head in the sand and pretend. Wonder what happens when greenland turns green and the arctic is ice free? Sorry I digress, attacks on science right now is just a bit infuriating...

Back to tracking an eventual miss or rain. Lol...

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS will be suppressed 

You talking about the 20th?  -it hasn't liked that one yet ... at least not very much.  Few members

It's a caution flag.   The pattern is still better for something like that oper. version to take place.  Whether reality opts to actually doing so remains to be seen

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