40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty much. In the long run the smoothed out mean is good on paper. As we get closer, some Inuit queefs and ends up f*cking us over with s/w screwing us. I'm not so sure...at least in terms of snowfall. Sure, decent with some luck, but we have had none. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Look at the ridge placement in the mean this season....OFF of the coast, which seeminly places a bowling ball over the CONUS SW anytime we have a major phase attempt INVO the ne US. That is a recipe for failure, despite a the cold look. Then, the mean vortex back east is right over us......again, in paper you look at that and take it....but its not an ideal paradigm for NE storm enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The good news? I think we are out of this decade long pattern we have been in....its just that the first run out of the gate was flawed in other ways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I’ve seen cutters with monster blocks before. They can happen as long as you phase some TPV in there with a western trough. That’s exactly what we’re getting now. I'd like to see a list of previous storms when the AO was -5. I doubt you'll find many cutters. You will find blizzards however 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean....try to use objective-mind and tell me this is hopeless: May we please get just ONE??? I mean really.... It would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Your weeniest comment ever. I will put it my sig when you are traipsing through the snow over your knees. Probably one of the most wise posts of the season from me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd like to see a list of previous storms when the AO was -5. I doubt you'll find many cutters. You will find blizzards however I think you'll find some....that plunges troughs into the center of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not so sure...at least in terms of snowfall. Sure, decent with some luck, but we have had none. My point is 10+ days out the smooth mean is actually favorable for us. But what ends up happening is exactly what you posted. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: May we please get just ONE??? I mean really.... It would be nice. Probably not a huge one. I think I need 15" to hit my forecast range for MBY...should pull that off, but perhaps barely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Oh well. We all know we are sick and we keep on looking for something. But fact of the matter is, I’m completely tapped out. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: My point is 10+ days out the smooth mean is actually favorable for us. But what ends up happening is exactly what you posted. Gotcha. Yea, the alignment/timing is just off and models can't pick up on that at extended leads. Frustrating, but at least we have seen a hemispheric shift this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh well. We all know we are sick and we keep on looking for something. But fact of the matter is, I’m completely tapped out. Then some exotic blizzard shows up in the LR and pulls us all back in and we do it all over again. It’s damn near clinical insanity. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: Then some exotic blizzard shows up in the LR and pulls us all back in and we do it all over again. It’s damn near clinical insanity. Probably best shot would be late, when the wavelengths change because that would alter this seasonal misalignment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 next week is still far away so deep down I’m trying to make myself believe that something could happen. But it’s tough to ignore the tenor of the season. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I can only say that at this point, I am done. There may be something out there between the 20th and the 30th ...and frankly, though the EPO is largely neutered by then, the PNA is surging ... so yeah. But I don't care. Fuggit! I'm hoping the fact that every index there is, being a neutral -warm heading into March thereafter, actually has legs. Because doing so in a La Nina ( whether we are coupled notwithstanding ...) climo, if/when the EPO remains flat or positive, probably means another shock and awe run or two at early 80 in a general month that flips pretty quickly to the much more likely longer termed probability for above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gotcha. Yea, the alignment/timing is just off and models can't pick up on that at extended leads. Frustrating, but at least we have seen a hemispheric shift this year. Hemispheric shift sure, though I’m not confident we don’t find new and creative ways to get fuct moving forward. Nothing scientific just hard to wrap my head around all these failures. Nobody saw all the flies in the ointment this season, what’s to say there aren’t more unseen hidden nuances that will have us singing the same tune as this season just with different notes next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean....try to use objective-mind and tell me this is hopeless: easily ... what's going on around the local hemisphere at the time? Without knowing this is meaningless - maybe useful to the imagination, sure. It needs the surrounding context, though, within which it is entirely guided by. That could be receding SE for example, because of a retrograde -NAO ... take your pick. It could be dying and was once even stronger - if it were -d() that means it's vertically stacked and not producing much... etc just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 For those asking about the snow before it gets washed away…yes even the 06z euro dropped 3-5” across much of SNE prior to the main system getting here. But it’s gonna be gone within 18 hours once we warm sector. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GYX seemed to going pretty snowy up here, but sounds like that will shift soon. They did caution for more western path being more mix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 All those that are done..see you clowns at 12z. Nuances…they can’t be seen at 10 plus days as some have said. We back to the 80’s to early 90’s. We got the cold and solid ice, and frozen ground, just can’t get things to line up for us. Mid Atlantic doing just fine..Deep DEEP South did too lol(record breaking in fact). But we are caught in no man’s land this year. This was common place back then. You just knew something would screw you…now we have come full circle. N. Maine gonna get hit nice tomorrow, 8-12”..sledding will be great this long weekend. More over the weekend while SNE rains..glad I’ll be gone. Some need to really take a break. Or go where there’s snow and enjoy some winter..it really makes a huge difference. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For those asking about the snow before it gets washed away…yes even the 06z euro dropped 3-5” across much of SNE prior to the main system getting here. But it’s gonna be gone within 18 hours once we warm sector. As we say, “ it was all a dream” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: All those that are done..see you clowns at 12z. Nuances…they can’t be seen at 10 plus days as some have said. We back to the 80’s to early 90’s. We got the cold and solid ice, and frozen ground, just can’t get things to line up for us. Mid Atlantic doing just fine..Deep DEEP South did too lol(record breaking in fact). But we are caught in no man’s land this year. This was common place back then. You just knew something would screw you…now we have come full circle. N. Maine gonna get hit nice tomorrow, 8-12”..sledding will be great this long weekend. More over the weekend while SNE rains..glad I’ll be gone. Some need to really take a break. Or go where there’s snow and enjoy some winter..it really makes a huge difference. Great, Moose Knuckle Maine has snow, we get it… 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Kitz Craver said: Great, Moose Knuckle Maine has snow, we get it… It’s a great place…ya gotta go where there’s snow bro. I won’t even think about what is or isn’t happening here. It’s a very good remedy when home is getting totally boned. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So everyone is on the same page this morning I see.... We're on to golf season! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For those asking about the snow before it gets washed away…yes even the 06z euro dropped 3-5” across much of SNE prior to the main system getting here. But it’s gonna be gone within 18 hours once we warm sector. Will we lose all snowpack up into CNE? I still think the Euro will be wrong with 50’s and 60’s Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It’s a great place…ya gotta go where there’s snow bro. I won’t even think about what is or isn’t happening here. It’s a very good remedy when home is getting totally boned. Yeah I get it, I used to go up to Jay regularly and it does soothe the soul, but life has gotten busy during winter with all my son’s sporting events and I’m left relegated to SOP albeit, maybe one trip up north a season if I’m lucky. I’ll be back someday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: All those that are done..see you clowns at 12z. Nuances…they can’t be seen at 10 plus days as some have said. We back to the 80’s to early 90’s. We got the cold and solid ice, and frozen ground, just can’t get things to line up for us. Mid Atlantic doing just fine..Deep DEEP South did too lol(record breaking in fact). But we are caught in no man’s land this year. This was common place back then. You just knew something would screw you…now we have come full circle. N. Maine gonna get hit nice tomorrow, 8-12”..sledding will be great this long weekend. More over the weekend while SNE rains..glad I’ll be gone. Some need to really take a break. Or go where there’s snow and enjoy some winter..it really makes a huge difference. Enjoy your time in the cabin full of men. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: Yeah I get it, I used to go up to Jay regularly and it does soothe the soul, but life has gotten busy during winter with all my son’s sporting events and I’m left relegated to SOP albeit, maybe one trip up north a season if I’m lucky. I’ll be back someday. Yea. I used to ski several times per winter and do at least one long extended trip to Stowe or Jay, if not out west…before I had kids. Now we’re too busy and the cost has gotten out of hand. It’s no longer a top priority, unfortunately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: All those that are done..see you clowns at 12z. Nuances…they can’t be seen at 10 plus days as some have said. We back to the 80’s to early 90’s. We got the cold and solid ice, and frozen ground, just can’t get things to line up for us. Mid Atlantic doing just fine..Deep DEEP South did too lol(record breaking in fact). But we are caught in no man’s land this year. This was common place back then. You just knew something would screw you…now we have come full circle. N. Maine gonna get hit nice tomorrow, 8-12”..sledding will be great this long weekend. More over the weekend while SNE rains..glad I’ll be gone. Some need to really take a break. Or go where there’s snow and enjoy some winter..it really makes a huge difference. I couldn't agree more. Maybe lying if I said I wasn't disappointed, but people in the South who rarely see snow that something that's once in a lifetime, and that's pretty damn cool. Cool. We'll have our moment again. And who knows, the season is not over yet, and none of us are getting off of here even when we say we are done LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will we lose all snowpack up into CNE? I still think the Euro will be wrong with 50’s and 60’s Sunday Not unless it's trends warmer. Even 6z euro keeps most of SNH wedged in the 30s, maybe hits 40 here near the border 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I used to ski several times per winter and do at least one long extended trip to Stowe or Jay, if not out west…before I had kids. Now we’re too busy and the cost has gotten out of hand. It’s no longer a top priority, unfortunately. I may be a nerve nelly but I wouldn't bother with kid kids. i've heard too many stories of taking 10 year olds on family ski trips and kid has a 35 mph fight with a chair lift stanchion and of course loses ...Cut to, 10 years later, and their wheeling the 20 year old instead of walking the 20 year old down the graduation ramp. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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